124 comments posted · 2 followers · following 5

53 minutes ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The Brexit Draft Withd... · 0 replies · +1 points

Is this the EU's original draft, but now just with many bits shaded Green & Yellow? All approved by May, Robbins & Heywood, but with Mr Davis sent out to take the blame for this ridiculous, stupid capitulation.

2 hours ago @ http://www.conservativ... - "Conservative Party me... · 0 replies · +1 points

A fair point, but we need to keep battling on. It won''t be over until JRM says it is.

3 days ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Meanwhile, here's what... · 0 replies · +1 points
"TOP Whitehall officials were caught boasting to EU diplomats that Brexit will be like a KitKat with chocolate covering ties to Brussels for years to come. Bombshell tapes passed to The Sun reveal senior civil servants secretly pledging to continue spending taxpayers’ cash propping up Brussels defence and foreign projects— including the controversial “EU Army”."

3 days ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Meanwhile, here's what... · 0 replies · +1 points

The ERG letter suggested that the implementation period should be a WTO-compliant interim period in contemplation of an FTA.
Martin Howe QC has also suggested another suitable alternative:
So far simpler, cheaper & safer alternatives to this unnecessary 21 month Vassal State period do exist.

1 week ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Whether you care about... · 2 replies · +1 points

David McD is 100% correct. I have also spotted these slips - plus total ignorance of NI politics.

FYI, there are also several non-British posters on but at least there they are open about it.

1 week ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Whether you care about... · 0 replies · +1 points

We should not be making these ex-gratia gifts at all. Come 30 March 2019 as things stand the UK will legally regain ownership of our 200 mile limit. There is no valid reason why we should give away our fish, nor give away £40Bn+ (HM Treasury estimate the cost of the reste à liquider (RAL) wish-list alone at €21 - €23 billion and worryingly say "It appears that the UK’s figure assumes a greater proportion of decommitments than the EU usually assumes." and overall "although the true cost will not be known until all the future payments have been made." ) Source: HoC Briefing Paper

With our £82Bn pa trade deficit, a potential EU-US trade war, June 2019 elections and widespread anti-Brussels sentiment the EU simply cannot afford no deal. The UK should hold out for fair terms.

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

1 week ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Ici Londres - T... · 4 replies · +1 points

The book 'The Economics of Brexit', analysed the Treasury's gravity-model Report produced before the referendum over nine pages, and highlighted more than twenty significant inadequacies which made the report 'entirely unreliable'.
The gravity model doesn't fit well with successful maritime trading nations such as Japan, S Korea, China or the UK (neither 19th C nor increasingly again today). Language is another partial impediment to trade. Both are greatly mitigated by modern technology & communications.
HMT’s gravity model was also discussed here:
And with better assumptions (eg UK negotiates FTAs with RoW) a far better outcome emerges anyway:

1 week ago @ http://www.conservativ... - David Jones: Brexit. W... · 0 replies · +1 points

No problem. This seems a clear & comprehensive guide to the WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement:
With further background:

1 week ago @ http://www.conservativ... - David Jones: Brexit. W... · 2 replies · +1 points

Non tariff barriers by the EU27 will now have to conform with the Facilitation of Trade Agreement which the WTO brought into effect last year.

The World Bank economic forecast argues that if the UK fails to secure a FTA with the EU, on WTO terms the UK’s (smaller) exports to the EU would drop by at most 2%. The UK’s exports to the EU are around 12% of UK GDP, so a 2% fall reduces GDP by c.0.25%.
The World Bank’s study says the impact is small because the EU’s import demand for UK exports is fairly inelastic. This means that EU importers that will bear most of the £6Bn potential EU tariff (HM Treasury would have £16Bn more to spend).
The UK should be far more nimble than the EU in doing FTA deals with non-EU countries. Therefore, since the UK’s (£96Bn larger) goods imports are more elastic, the UK has greater scope for import substitution than does the EU.

1 week ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Howard Flight: Despite... · 0 replies · +1 points

Given the importance of negotiating FTA deals with other countries, it is a shame that the FCO couldn't be more, er, diplomatic to our largest £100Bn export customer:
"Last month our man in Washington, Sir Kim Darroch, was invited mark the launch of the Royal Commonwealth Society of the United States. Guests included two of Trump’s heavy hitters: education secretary Betsy DeVos and commerce secretary Wilbur Ross. There were also more than a dozen senators and governors at the soirée. But the British embassy was a surprise no-show."