IntenseDebate - JonathanF1234

3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Garvan Walshe: We can ... · 0 replies · +1 points

The telegraph quote is no evidence that the Govt approach has changed to "zero Covid".

The problem being addressed is the rate of covid in the community and the loosening of restrictions which will allow those still unvaccinated to need hospital. Covid could still surge. How low does covid in the community need to be and what effect does each restriction loosening result in. You will see some modelling of some of this by Warwick Uni. https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/cross_fac/zeeman_instit...

3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Garvan Walshe: We can ... · 1 reply · +1 points

The counterfactual of the economic effect of "no restrictions" is difficult to quantify with certainty. But we now know that with "no restrictions" the NHS would have been overwhelmed and "closed". Hundreds of thousands and quite possibly millions of very sick people of all ages unable to get medical help. In such circumstances the rest of the population and family members of the very sick are not going to continue to go to work and spend money on hospitality as if nothing was different. The economic and GDP hit would have been large.

The people of this country would not have accepted a government that had deliberately chosen No Restrictions as a policy.

3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Garvan Walshe: We can ... · 2 replies · +1 points

The govt is not taking a Zero Covid stance. The approach has been to control the volume of covid cases so that the NHs can handle the quantity. To avoid the financial and health catastrophe of the NHs closing.

3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Garvan Walshe: We can ... · 6 replies · +1 points

I have never suggested that we should aim for "zero covid".

3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Garvan Walshe: We can ... · 8 replies · +1 points

The issue is that if we allow cases to overwhelm and close the NHs there is no availability of the great treatment that you talk about. And no availability for cancer and other non-covid treatments. It is not just the vulnerable or very old that need Covid hospitalisation (about 50% are working age and 15% in there 20s and 30s).

A year ago people were saying that we did not need any restrictions because for example, Covid would die out in 90 days anyway, or it would be no worse then flu, or it would not overwhelm the NHS. We have a year of data and we know that all these claims are wrong. Restrictions were needed to control the volume of cases. Restrictions have very strong public support. Restrictions are used in every Country in the world.

You need to forget your constant claim for "no restrictions".

3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Garvan Walshe: We can ... · 1 reply · +1 points

"We have a vaccination that prevents serious illness and hospitalisation even against the south Africa variant"

That is precisely what is not known yet. Some information and early studies is showing a reduced effectiveness from both the Oxford and Pfizer vaccine. Because of a concern over reduced efficacy South Africa stopped using the Oxford vaccine. But that is what is going to be looked at now. It is some of the data that we need before decisions are made about how fast to loosen restrictions.

3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Garvan Walshe: We can ... · 18 replies · +1 points

"We can be sure that those who have been vaccinated won’t die of Covid"

Fatalities are not going to overwhelm and close the NHS. It is hospital admissions that will do that. GW is looking at the wrong data.

With restrictions over the last year we have had some 380,000 covid hospitalisations with about half of them working age people. Without restrictions the data indicates that we would have had about 2 million admissions. The NHS would have closed causing an economic and health catastrophe.

In the trials the vaccine stopped all hospitalisations and fatalities. But we do not yet have confirmation that we will have the same result with the new variants. Perhaps we will have some level of hospitalisations. We also know that there are a potential large number of hospitalisations from younger people who are not yet vaccinated. If there is a large occurrence of covid in the population they would quickly become hospitalised before vaccination.

So the medical specialists need to look at the data and come up with a plan based on what is happening. Loosen restrictions so that we do not need to return to a lockdown. Data not dates as they say.

3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Fifteen million people... · 1 reply · +1 points

You really should look at the facts. Sweden and Florida support the statement that every country has used restrictions to control the volume of Covid infections. Sweden steadily increased its restrictions to try and control the virus. As of spring last year they banned international (non EU) travel to Sweden. As of Monday 16th November, all but one of Sweden's 21 regions have entered a stricter lockdown which includes: No contact with people from outside your home group; ban on parties and social gatherings; no unnecessary travel within your region or travel outside the region; limit trips to shops. Similarly Florida has gone through the whole list of restrictions including last year stay at home orders and closing of beaches, bars and restaurants. Fines for not wearing a mask. Every country increased restrictions and then loosened them as things have got under control.

3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Fifteen million people... · 3 replies · +1 points

Jonathan Sumption makes the often repeated and obvious mistake of looking at fatalities with comments like "more than 99 per cent of people who get Covid survive. "

Fatalities is not the issue that will overwhelm and close the NHS. It is Covid hospital admissions that will close the NHS and the restrictions have been needed to stop that happening. 380,000 hospital admissions with restrictions and the NHS had to stop virtually all non covid work. Quite possibly 2+ million if we had "no restrictions". That is why Restrictions have such strong public support and are used in every Country in the world.

The people of our Country have joined in a great endeavour to control the pace and volume of Covid infections to stop an Economic and Health catastrophe.

3 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Ryan Bourne: The lifti... · 0 replies · +1 points

David,
Yes i agree. He is one of those bloggers who has a belief that is unchanged by science, logic or any other data. Its ironic that he claims science supports his views.

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