NervousElk

NervousElk

56p

169 comments posted · 1 followers · following 4

5 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Radical: Self-ID for t... · 0 replies · +1 points

I broadly agree with you (although there are, of course, hermaphrodites). Personally, I have no problem with someone defining their gender as purple unicorns if they want to, nor do I think that they should be discriminated against if that's their choice, but that shouldn't translate into purple unicorn only days or changing rooms or special training or any other legislation along those lines...

6 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - More testing woes for ... · 0 replies · +1 points

Apologies, I meant to say no time at all!

6 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - More testing woes for ... · 0 replies · +1 points

The reason there is no study to support such a large number of tests is surely that we have had at all.

6 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - More testing woes for ... · 0 replies · +1 points

I can both sympathise and empathise. It’s happened to me too and my best tip for a way around it is to write it all separately in word and then copy and paste it when you are ready to reply. Helps with the typos too (for me, at least)!

Thanks again – most interesting. I’m a medieval historian so I could get very pedantic about bubonic/pneumonic/septicaemic plague mortality rates but that’s beside the point so I shan’t. Possibly naively I had thought that the problem with PPE was that the stock didn’t allow for the level of protection required for Corvid – i.e. it was based on ‘flu and had insufficient supply of equipment that would protect against absorption through the eyes – but again if I got that wrong then fair enough. Ditto ventilators – again, I got the impression, possibly quite wrongly, that there was a massive panic to obtain more and then it transpired that we had enough to meet requirements and that some of the extra that we were ordering wouldn’t work for Corvid patients (as they would under normal circumstances) anyway. I do appreciate that this has been a massive learning curve for everyone so I may well be regurgitating ‘breakthroughs’ that have long since been superceded or just be retailing my general scientific ignorance.

The one bright spot I can add to your analysis is that the chances of a review on preparedness in the future are now excellent. It’s gone from a ghastly but distant possibility (and therefore easily kicked in to the long grass for a future HMG to deal with whilst saving budget now) into blimey, we must make damn sure that we don’t get caught with our pants down on the Treasury’s forecasts I should think!

6 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - More testing woes for ... · 1 reply · +1 points

If by fake news media you mean that some media outlets skew their take on a story to suit a particular political agenda then I will agree with you, although I would call it bias. If, however, you think that by saying fake news you can simply wish away facts (pace Trump) then we shall have to beg to differ.

The figures you quote from the ONS are, I am sure, correct, They are also two weeks ago and in themselves work at a considerable remove so yes, I am happy to make my judgment on what is happening now from your “fake news” (John Hopkins University?), which shows rising cases in France and Spain. I remember also that we were about 2 weeks behind those countries during the first wave and that our new cases, deaths and intensive care figures are also rising (ditto).

Just look at the figures in the USA (fake news again?). It hasn’t “gone away” there – they’ve had more than 200,000 deaths. If there’s fake news then it’s in the figures from Russia – more than a million cases yet barely 19,000 deaths…

6 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - More testing woes for ... · 2 replies · +1 points

Thank you, that’s very helpful. I was aware of Exercise Cygnus and was referring to it in my comment. Your link doesn’t actually work all that well but this one I hope does - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Cygnus. As I thought though, it was wargamed on the assumption of an H2N2 ‘flu (Asian ‘flu, as it used to be called) and not something like Corvid. We have, I believe, Europe’s largest stocks of Tamiflu specifically to help in such a scenario, which of course were useless with Corvid, which was rather my point.

I honestly don’t quite see how any government could have prepared better for a novel virus as they would, by definition, have no idea as to what form that virus would take but I’ll happily take correction if you wouldn’t mind providing it.

6 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - More testing woes for ... · 0 replies · +1 points

Thank you, that’s very interesting and I hadn't read it before. It certainly seems an encouraging thought although, unless I have read it wrong, the study you quote doesn't actually confirm that no child has gone on to infect an adult but does suggest that they are much less likely to do so than adult to adult contact would be.

6 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - More testing woes for ... · 3 replies · +1 points

Are you President Trump in disguise? Yes, if we carry out more tests then, shock horror, we are more likely to find people who have been infected. Is it somehow preferable to carry out fewer tests and wait until, and I quote, “it will just go away”?

6 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - More testing woes for ... · 4 replies · +1 points

To be fair, given how untouched we were by SARS then I really don’t think that that is reasonable. Yes, even I (an historian by training and with no more than Chemistry and Physics O levels behind me in terms of science) could work out that we were roughly due another nasty virus crossover from somewhere (to be honest, I did think either Africa or China) but I can’t see why anyone should have prepared for a virus that was this infectious apart from a version of ‘flu (which we were prepared for).

Neither HIV/AIDS, nor Ebola nor SARS nor MERS were set up quite like this virus has turned out to be.

6 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - More testing woes for ... · 0 replies · +1 points

Quite!