2,781 comments posted · 187 followers · following 5

4 hours ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The second wave is tre... · 1 reply · +1 points

Noidea about aerosol spread: thereare models of it but as far as I knowno hard evidence yet. What we have evidence about is droplets. The office and restaurant case studies are explained well by that and the ventilation pattern.

Here, face masks are compulsory in public transport and in indoors spaces when social distancing is not possible. Most people seem to wear reusable masks which have space for a paper filter inside. Cuts from Hoover bags are quite good for that.

22 hours ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The second wave is tre... · 3 replies · +1 points

I think that there are still too many unanswered questions, but most are directly relevant for government and health authorities. For an individual like me, who has not been tested and is unlikely to be unless he develops symptoms, the key issue is how to live as normally as possible.

I think that the presence of the virus on surfaces is unimportant. If I have understood right, the gateway to our body for this virus are mouth, nose and eyes. We keep our virus (if we are infected) from infecting others by using masks; we protect ourselves from infection, when necessary, with hard plastic visors. We wash our hands before we touch our mouth, nose or eyes. This much is easy.

Social distancing is tricier. There is an interesting article with case studies of the spread of infection in restaurants and offices. From what I glean, air conditioning and fan-assisted heating are the main vehicle for transporting the virus beyond the 1m-2m vicinity, which means avoiding interiors as much as possible, or at least avoding sitting downstream in an air flow. Fine and easy in the summer, when we can sit utdoors - more difficult in winter. Even so, it is relatively cheap and easy to make a transparent screen which opens on your table, in front of your dish and on the side. This can also break the air flow.

What I mean is, an individual can protect him/herself without too much trouble and too much expense, just with a bit of DIY and some self-control.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The second wave is tre... · 7 replies · +1 points

Good point. I think also that one should look at the dates of large events (especially indoors ones) which may have contributed to the spread. We have been lucky here in Seville: the two key events here are Holy Week (which should have been in the first half of April this year) and the Feria, normally in May. If the spread had taken place during Holy Week, Seville might have been the worst place in Europe. In Madrid, the impact was probably due to a concert, a football match, large marches on March 8, and a political rally, all in early March.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The second wave is tre... · 0 replies · +1 points

Good point about natural immunity - see my post below. It was also mentioned at the beginning of the pandemic.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The second wave is tre... · 9 replies · +1 points

Good questions, with some misunderstandings - SARS and MERS were much more lethal and that was one of the reasons why those outbreaks were controlled: the virus didn't have enough time to spread before it killed its host. As regards temperature, wnter is more dangerous because more people congregate indoors.

Itdoesnaddup mentions natural immunity. In an interview with theGuardian yesterday, mentioned also in the elegraph today, Karl Friston,a scientist from UCL said that one *possible* reason for the low impact in Germany could be greater immunity there. The Guardian interviewer misunderstood (in my view), attributing greater immunity in Germany with respect to the UK with greater isolation there - it seems to me that it should the other way round, that Britain, being an island, has historically been less exposed to diseases which may have strengthened, over time, the immune response of Germans. In other words, geography could have played a role.

Early in the pandemic one of the scientists, can't remember who, said that people who have been vaccinated repeatedly against other diseases might have a sronger immune system asa result. That would be a similar reasonment to that of Friston.

2 days ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Dodds - "It is ... · 0 replies · +1 points

I agree.

4 days ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Newslinks for Friday 2... · 0 replies · +1 points

When I was in London (five years ago) cycling there looked pretty scary - the streets couln't easily accommodate cars and bikes, and only a few had enough space for cycle lanes. I am surprised they are trying to encourage more cycling.

4 days ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Johnson - socia... · 0 replies · +1 points

Here there is a strong culture of eating and drinking outdoors, even in winter (which is mild). I am sure they will make it work.

4 days ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Johnson - socia... · 2 replies · +1 points

Yes. To be fair, though, restaurants can be tricky, especially with fans: the restaurant example in the article below (taken from a preprint) is sobering. Fortunately the weather is hot and we can eat outdoors.


4 days ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Johnson - socia... · 4 replies · +1 points

It will be interesting to see how it will work out. Here in Spain groups of up to ten people can meet, indoors or outdoors, provided they keep social distancing. In a week or a bit more we should be able to see if the number of new cases goes up again.

People are very cautious. I sent an email round to our Book Club asking how many of the regulars would be willing to meet face to face (outdoors, since we are in summer now) under those conditions, and so far 20% said a definite yes, 40% a definite no, the rest a qualified yes - only in a smaller group than ten.