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My view remains lockdown and vaccination will be proven to be an entirely counterproductive strategy. Still got 3 to 4 years of this crisis left to run?
Hopefully I'm wrong.
So pretty much par for the course these days.
If you ever want people to accept living indefinitely with Covid 19. You need to restrict testing to only the vulnerable part of the population.
Either way we end lock-down though because if vaccination actually works great, and if it doesn't there is no more reason to lock-down.
What stops SARS COV 2 circulating in any kind of return to normal life?
The core point is that lockdown never made any sense for a virus like SARS CoV 2. It will keep on coming indefinitely and there is little we can do.
For a virus like SARS CoV 2003 it made sense as only spread symptomatically had was 100x more lethal. Therefore it was quite easy to stamp it out with a short lockdown.
The truth is we've got this wrong from day one.
Presume they aren't effective would we then lockdown again? What after all, would be the point?
That is the huge potential problem with lockdown as a policy, potentially it doesn't go anywhere other than more lockdown and a catastrophic economic collapse.
It's just another misconception, that variants must originate from somewhere else. Stemming from the moronic geographic naming of clades as the "South Africa", "Brazil" or whatever variant.
We are already seeing evolution past first wave vaccines, both spontaneous here in the UK (Kent adding 484K, Bristol etc) and in variants from abroad (SA, Brazil etc). I can't see what stops that continuing. More so if you have a functioning economy where people have to be in close contact for it to function.
I expect within 6 months or sooner we simply see natural selection produce further variants that first wave vaccines offer little protection to. Big question for me is if applying wide evolutionary pressure speeds that process up or not.
It seems the government are at least aware of this and are seemingly planning "booster shots" in the Autumn from PMQ this week. There is no guarantee of how effective or not those will be.
Most of the deaths from COVID-19 also occur in people who are immunocompromised in some way and for whom vaccination of any kind therefore doesn't work well.
Unlocking, without having a plan to deal with much higher than 2019 rates of hospitalisation (more like 1993), simply makes it inevitable we end up locking down again.
Until we have the hospital capacity to deal with the extra demand from the permanent presence of COVID-19. We will always end up back at square one in lockdown 6 months or before after unlocking.
Have we expanded the capacity of appropriate NHS beds or do we at least have a plan to deal with that scenario? If not what is the plan?