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"ANALYSIS OHIO: Be very careful of these public polls showing the president leading by more than a point. I see the data. But my gut is telling me something different. Obama won Ohio in 2008 by only 4.6 percent of the vote, under some of the best circumstances for Democrats. Enthusiasm was way down for McCain at the end of the eight Bush years. Obama won with about 260,000 votes out of more than 5.7 million cast. Let's look at the Romney strategy: Flip Hamilton County from blue to red. I believe he'll do that tonight. Increase the rural conservative turnout. I believe he'll do that tonight. Outperform McCain in the urban areas, especially Columbus. I believe he'll do that tonight. Outperform McCain in the coal counties. He'll do that too. Early votes also have Romney way above the McCain level, and Obama down in his key counties from 2008. These are all the ingredients for a very close election. And if the enthusiasm gap for Obama, especially among younger voters which I have reported throughout the year, still exists, there is no way he can repeat his margin of 2008. In addition, Republicans swept every statewide office in the midterm of 2010. True, SB 5 was repealed with 61% of the vote in 2011. But on that same ballot, 68% of Ohioans voted against Obamacare. My sense is the frustration and anger with the president is still very real in Ohio. It would not surprise me at all, when all the votes are counted, that Mitt Romney carries the Buckeye State."