All seems reasonable - except I don't see what Rees-Mogg has done to get his satisfaction rating.

Personally I'd let him go and put Steve Barclay in his role (Given his department is one that is definitely going) as his performance rates getting a small promotion

Do the poll differences really make that much difference in Wales. Of the 40 seats in Wales for the two polls Cardif Uni/YouGov have Labour on 20/22, Conservatives on 14/12, PC on 4 and 2/2 seats being a toss up between Labour & Conservative.

So assuming the toss-up break 50/50 that's 23 Labour to 13 Conservative under YouGov abs 21 Labour to 15 Conservative under Cardif Uni. So even with record vote share there are just two seats in it.

Lets be honest here. If they are low skilled workers coming in - there is not much training required to replace these with UK workers. The truth is that employers don't want to pay the wages needed to get UK citizens to take up the roles, and we (the UK consumer) are not willing to pay the higher prices this would require.

So yes employers will seek to bring in low skilled workers from abroad, rather than employ UK citizens at significantly increased rates of pay that they will not be able to pass onto the consumer.

As for skilled workers like - plumbers, electricians. nurses etc. - these cannot be magic'd out of thin air and take years to train, and unless the economy crashes we need all these we can get, or the economy will crash or we'll see rocketing inflation as business vies for the few we have trained up in the UK.

Lord Green may be correct that a majority want to see immigration controlled, but this is a subject politicians should be taking the lead on an expressing why it would be really bad for the economy. And after the short term shock the economy will get from Brexit we cannot afford to compound it will limiting immigration and which is why the Ministers will not give any assurance on the numbers that will be cut upon Brexit. I just wish they'd take the lead and be honest with the public as to why not.

Actually the detailed examination of the 2017 election showed no significant increase in under 30's turn-out from previous elections.

Corbyn's vote came almost exclusively from a switch in the seats that mattered from what would be called the "Remain Alliance" this time around.

If the same holds true and the "Remain Alliance" hold onto their voters in key seats then the Conservatives should be onto a good night.

But the polls are already showing a tightening in the race - with (from local polls and the YouGov MRP poll) the "Remain Alliance" numbers only holding up in seats where they have a chance of winning. So we could be on for a near repeat of 2017.

And if the under 30's did get out of bed this time - and turn out in similar numbers for the over 45's the Conservatives could be on for a disaster. And the really high increase in last minute voter registration this time round and most of that coming from the under 30's does not bode well.

It depends on the amendment.

I don't see moving the whole of the UK into a Customs Union with the EU (rather than just N.I) or adding a confirmatory referendum (not yet anyway) as likely successes.

But I can see an amendment requiring the government of the time to ask for the 2 year extension of the transition deal if no comprehensive trade agreement has been reached with the EU.

Will the ERG die in a ditch of that. If they do - then the Withdraw Act is likely to fall and we be getting an election (or possibly a referendum)

There is nothing in it for Ireland or Varadkar.

The alternatives to the Deal, are the Deal or the UK remaining in the EU. Boris has basically taken No Deal off the table.

If there is a short extension - unlikely - then we get the Deal or another extension if it can't get through (probably because it has been changed or not been changed to a degree that is unacceptable to a majority of MPs)

If we get a longer extension then we get an election or a referendum.

If we get an election - Boris will fight this as support my deal and get Brexit Done. The result would then either be a Conservative Majority - to implement the deal or another hung parliament that means a further extension and a referenda on the deal.

If we get a referenda then either Boris's deal wins or Remain wins.

No Deal is dead unless the Brexit party can become the party of Brexit and win its own majority (or near majority) at a General Election. But all signs are that Boris is not quite hovering up, but is certainly collecting the Brexit vote with the TBP party falling in the polls each time the Conservative party rises (there are no new votes coming to the Brexit parties).

I should add this is the perfect deal for the EU.
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They have never been that concerned over a No Deal Brexit apart from the impact it would have on Ireland. With the "Front-Stop" that will kick at the end of the transition period trade deal or no trade deal that is solved.

And with the 15 month transition period they get that time to prepare for the UK becoming a third nation and separating themselves from the UK regarding trade.

With nothing to press them into getting a trade deal they will have the power in the negotiation. Especially as I could see parliament stepping in again to extend the transition period if there is no trade-deal.

We'll be back where we are now only instead of A50 extension after extension it will be transition period extension after extension and we will be remain EU rule takers, only with no input on those future rules. Worse of both worlds.

At least with a No Deal Brexit we would have some power in the negotiations as they would want a deal to solve the Irish problem.

But then you look at the alternative government, and you see Corbyn smiling face.

What they want to come on board are assurances that the current government will negotiate a post Brexit relationship with the EU that they can live with.

I can guess why Remainers don't like the deal. But the semi-detached leavers - who want to leave with a deal. That's probably due to the bit in deal that moves us away from regulatory alignment and gives us just 15 months to negotiate a free-trade deal.

By moving away from regulatory alignment - we make getting a free trade deal harder (i.e it will take more time) and with no backstop when the transition period comes to an end - if there is no trade deal then we basically have a No Deal exit (at least for England, Scotland and Wales).

Even with a free trade agreement we leave very little time for industry to realign itself for an exit without regulatory alignment (which many industries are calling for).

I think Boris will need to make some compromises to get the semi-detached leavers on-board, extend the transition period (its already been stated by E.U this could be up to 2 years longer) and give way on regulatory alignment in a lot of the areas where industry is concerned.

Boris was never the Brexit purist many on here believed - remember he did vote for May;s deal the third time round.

His main concerns have always been to become P.M and then to stay as P.M and not leave under a cloud like his recent predecessors.

A No Deal Brexit was always going (at least in the short term) to bring in a high degree of disruption and if he forced a "No Deal" Brexit thru, there woiuld have been a G.E that woiuld have taken place at the height of the disruption, and may very well have been lost.

Getting a deal lets him be a hero to the none purists on both sides - for leavers "He got it done - we exited the EU, even if it was BRINO for N.I as who cares about that in the rest of GB" and for remainers he avoided a "No Deal" Brexit and we left with a deal.

The onlyreal question is does he come baxck with a deal this weekend and get it thru parliament. Or does he allow himself to be forced to write the letter and win an election as the only person who can get Brexit done. Getting the majhority May failed to deliver so the DUP and ERG can be side-lined.