gdp's Comments

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Garvan Walshe: We can be sure that those who have been vaccinated won’t die of Covid. So the case

Thu, 18 Feb 2021 12:43:25 +0000

The telegraph quote is no evidence that the Govt approach has changed to "zero Covid". The problem being addressed is the rate of covid in the community and the loosening of restrictions which will allow those still unvaccinated to need hospital. Covid could still surge. How low does covid in the community need to be and what effect does each restriction loosening result in. You will see some modelling of some of this by Warwick Uni. https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/cross_fac/zeeman_instit...

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Garvan Walshe: We can be sure that those who have been vaccinated won’t die of Covid. So the case

Thu, 18 Feb 2021 12:04:11 +0000

The counterfactual of the economic effect of "no restrictions" is difficult to quantify with certainty. But we now know that with "no restrictions" the NHS would have been overwhelmed and "closed". Hundreds of thousands and quite possibly millions of very sick people of all ages unable to get medical help. In such circumstances the rest of the population and family members of the very sick are not going to continue to go to work and spend money on hospitality as if nothing was different. The economic and GDP hit would have been large. The people of this country would not have accepted a government that had deliberately chosen No Restrictions as a policy.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Garvan Walshe: We can be sure that those who have been vaccinated won’t die of Covid. So the case

Thu, 18 Feb 2021 11:57:09 +0000

The govt is not taking a Zero Covid stance. The approach has been to control the volume of covid cases so that the NHs can handle the quantity. To avoid the financial and health catastrophe of the NHs closing.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Garvan Walshe: We can be sure that those who have been vaccinated won’t die of Covid. So the case

Thu, 18 Feb 2021 11:07:24 +0000

I have never suggested that we should aim for "zero covid".

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Garvan Walshe: We can be sure that those who have been vaccinated won’t die of Covid. So the case

Thu, 18 Feb 2021 10:15:08 +0000

The issue is that if we allow cases to overwhelm and close the NHs there is no availability of the great treatment that you talk about. And no availability for cancer and other non-covid treatments. It is not just the vulnerable or very old that need Covid hospitalisation (about 50% are working age and 15% in there 20s and 30s). A year ago people were saying that we did not need any restrictions because for example, Covid would die out in 90 days anyway, or it would be no worse then flu, or it would not overwhelm the NHS. We have a year of data and we know that all these claims are wrong. Restrictions were needed to control the volume of cases. Restrictions have very strong public support. Restrictions are used in every Country in the world. You need to forget your constant claim for "no restrictions".

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Garvan Walshe: We can be sure that those who have been vaccinated won’t die of Covid. So the case

Thu, 18 Feb 2021 08:42:01 +0000

"We have a vaccination that prevents serious illness and hospitalisation even against the south Africa variant" That is precisely what is not known yet. Some information and early studies is showing a reduced effectiveness from both the Oxford and Pfizer vaccine. Because of a concern over reduced efficacy South Africa stopped using the Oxford vaccine. But that is what is going to be looked at now. It is some of the data that we need before decisions are made about how fast to loosen restrictions.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Garvan Walshe: We can be sure that those who have been vaccinated won’t die of Covid. So the case

Thu, 18 Feb 2021 07:45:16 +0000

"We can be sure that those who have been vaccinated won’t die of Covid" Fatalities are not going to overwhelm and close the NHS. It is hospital admissions that will do that. GW is looking at the wrong data. With restrictions over the last year we have had some 380,000 covid hospitalisations with about half of them working age people. Without restrictions the data indicates that we would have had about 2 million admissions. The NHS would have closed causing an economic and health catastrophe. In the trials the vaccine stopped all hospitalisations and fatalities. But we do not yet have confirmation that we will have the same result with the new variants. Perhaps we will have some level of hospitalisations. We also know that there are a potential large number of hospitalisations from younger people who are not yet vaccinated. If there is a large occurrence of covid in the population they would quickly become hospitalised before vaccination. So the medical specialists need to look at the data and come up with a plan based on what is happening. Loosen restrictions so that we do not need to return to a lockdown. Data not dates as they say.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Fifteen million people have been vaccinated against Covid on time. Here are thirty more fields in wh

Wed, 17 Feb 2021 17:05:17 +0000

You really should look at the facts. Sweden and Florida support the statement that every country has used restrictions to control the volume of Covid infections. Sweden steadily increased its restrictions to try and control the virus. As of spring last year they banned international (non EU) travel to Sweden. As of Monday 16th November, all but one of Sweden's 21 regions have entered a stricter lockdown which includes: No contact with people from outside your home group; ban on parties and social gatherings; no unnecessary travel within your region or travel outside the region; limit trips to shops. Similarly Florida has gone through the whole list of restrictions including last year stay at home orders and closing of beaches, bars and restaurants. Fines for not wearing a mask. Every country increased restrictions and then loosened them as things have got under control.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Fifteen million people have been vaccinated against Covid on time. Here are thirty more fields in wh

Wed, 17 Feb 2021 15:40:27 +0000

Jonathan Sumption makes the often repeated and obvious mistake of looking at fatalities with comments like "more than 99 per cent of people who get Covid survive. " Fatalities is not the issue that will overwhelm and close the NHS. It is Covid hospital admissions that will close the NHS and the restrictions have been needed to stop that happening. 380,000 hospital admissions with restrictions and the NHS had to stop virtually all non covid work. Quite possibly 2+ million if we had "no restrictions". That is why Restrictions have such strong public support and are used in every Country in the world. The people of our Country have joined in a great endeavour to control the pace and volume of Covid infections to stop an Economic and Health catastrophe.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Ryan Bourne: The lifting of lockdown. Yes to prudence but no to pessimism. The projections of these

Tue, 16 Feb 2021 10:04:00 +0000

David, Yes i agree. He is one of those bloggers who has a belief that is unchanged by science, logic or any other data. Its ironic that he claims science supports his views.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Ryan Bourne: The lifting of lockdown. Yes to prudence but no to pessimism. The projections of these

Tue, 16 Feb 2021 08:58:21 +0000

I know from your previous comments that you are anti vaccine and anti restrictions. But to claim that there is scientific evidence to support your views is , well how shall i put it, laughable.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Ryan Bourne: The lifting of lockdown. Yes to prudence but no to pessimism. The projections of these

Tue, 16 Feb 2021 08:04:42 +0000

We can pretty much ignore the advice of the CRG. They do not believe that restrictions "...break the transmission of Covid.." so they do not appreciate the basics of what is happening. RB rightly argues that being cautious is sensible and for example waiting another month to reopen schools would be sensible. We certainly know that there are real dangers from loosening restrictions too soon and the govt must avoid that. But the point is that the data is being collected now on the vaccines effectiveness and on the prevalence of covid in the community etc. We do not know the result yet. Let the medical specialists collect the data and advise. In advance of that lets not make the mistake that the CRG does of applying arbitrary dates to what should happen.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : The relaxation of lockdown. Coming soon. Usual terms and conditions apply.

Mon, 15 Feb 2021 17:49:16 +0000

Then we are in complete agreement on the need to be sceptical and look at data.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : The relaxation of lockdown. Coming soon. Usual terms and conditions apply.

Mon, 15 Feb 2021 15:58:48 +0000

You misunderstand the ONS survey and are incorrect in your statement. It is not based on only those who get tested because they have symptoms. It is a random sample of UK people to find out who has ever had covid (asymptomatic or not) . It is carried out in partnership with the University of Oxford, University of Manchester, Public Health England and Welcome Trust. You really should not discount data just because it disproves your preconceived ideas. Best to look at information and then make a decision.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : The relaxation of lockdown. Coming soon. Usual terms and conditions apply.

Mon, 15 Feb 2021 12:24:08 +0000

A thought provoking idea. I wonder if those who are refusing a vaccine will also refuse any medical treatment that they might need if they get covid?

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : The relaxation of lockdown. Coming soon. Usual terms and conditions apply.

Mon, 15 Feb 2021 11:48:15 +0000

The figures show the actual numbers which are: 9.2 million covid infections. 380,000 hospital admissions. 110,000 fatalities. About 50% of the hospitalisations were people of working age and about 15% were in there 20s and 30s. The 9.2M figure(14% of pop) is ONS data (3 feb) for those infected with covid in the UK. To get to 80% infections we would therefore expect: 52 million infections. 2.1 million hospitalisations. 620,000 deaths. I agree the speed of those admissions depends on the rate of exponential growth of the virus. But we have seen a doubling every 5 days so the numbers get very large very quickly. The NHS would have been quickly overwhelmed with a "no restrictions" policy. Its not by chance that every country in the world has used restrictions to stop this happening.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : The relaxation of lockdown. Coming soon. Usual terms and conditions apply.

Mon, 15 Feb 2021 11:24:59 +0000

Before you got "herd immunity" (at say 80% infection) you would have had over 2million needing hospitalisation and half of them of working age. There are about 110,000 beds in the NHs so no chance of it handling that volume. It would close and an economic and health disaster would follow. Is that the approach you think should have been taken?

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : The relaxation of lockdown. Coming soon. Usual terms and conditions apply.

Mon, 15 Feb 2021 10:55:59 +0000

Indeed there are and we are in lockdown which is reducing the number. Vaccinations are not having much of an effect yet (but will). But you have a point to make?

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : The relaxation of lockdown. Coming soon. Usual terms and conditions apply.

Mon, 15 Feb 2021 10:37:03 +0000

It is not deaths that will overwhelm and close the NHS , shutting all our hospitals. It is hospital admissions that will do that. As my comment sates half of admissions are working age people and about 15% are in there 20s and 30s. Hospital admissions are the problem.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : The relaxation of lockdown. Coming soon. Usual terms and conditions apply.

Mon, 15 Feb 2021 10:22:12 +0000

The CRG are denying the basic science of Covid and claim that restrictions and lockdowns are "...clearly failing at breaking the transmission of Covid" (CRG Co Chair. 21/Jan/2021). They are of course, wrong so we need to look very carefully at any of their suggestions to end restrictions. After all they believe that restrictions don't work in the first place so why would they delay ending them? The CRG are now demanding that there should be no restrictions at all from the end of April once over 50s have been offered a jab and have also called for a guaranty that restrictions will not return after that. The CRG have missed the fact that it takes about three weeks for a covid vaccine to offer a good protection level. So at the end of April at about 3m jabs a week only those in group 5 (65 and above) together with some in group 6 (high risk) will be protected. Those in groups 7, 8 and 9 will not be protected. There will be a large group of people unprotected who could quickly need hospitalisation and overwhelm the NHS. We know from the data over the last year that with restrictions and lockdowns to delay and slow the spread of Covid we have had (ONS , NHS data 3 feb): 9.2 million covid infections. 380,000 hospital admissions. 110,000 fatalities. About 50% of the hospitalisations were people of working age and about 15% were in there 20s and 30s. Without any restrictions Covid infections would have expanded fast and stopped perhaps when herd immunity was reached at say 80% (52Million) of the population infected. 52 million infections. 2.1 million hospitalisations. 620,000 deaths. Care must be taken not to loosen restriction too fast and we should allow the medical specialists to carefully analyse the data and recommend an appropriate approach. A blanket demand by the CRG to end all restrictions by April is wrong and does not help.