gdp's Comments

The Reality-Based Community : The Oakland Warehouse Fire

Wed, 7 Dec 2016 21:57:46 +0000

This tragedy certainly arose from people struggling to live/work in substandard conditions. Our City Administrator recently told a group that a half million new jobs have happened in the Bay Area, with only about one-tenth that number of housing units, so of course there have been sharp cost increases that may take decades to sort out. But this tragedy ALSO happened because dozens were crammed into a space that never should've been a party/club environment. That has nothing to do with housing costs, but rather the fact that so many younger adults have so little income to afford better locations. Oakland has many clubs; they're not particularly geared at the rich but AFAICT, are reasonably inspected & safe. This location shouldn't have been one of them.

The Reality-Based Community : The Oakland Warehouse Fire

Wed, 7 Dec 2016 21:50:29 +0000

Yes, I agree. You should have edited before posting. And, I suggest, ALSO thought about how your hobby-horse issue is –>at best<– trivial vs the concerns of dozens of people dying after packing themselves into a deathtrap because they're inured to the risks of a debased environment.

Atlas Sound Money Project : Interest rates, profits and competition

Thu, 9 Jul 2015 20:45:58 +0000

“Interest rates are low because the demand to borrow has fallen.” The writer apparently is not of the “supply side” school*. There is the little matter of our Central Bank, which has been trying desperately to jumpstart economic activity so that there WILL BE stronger demand for borrowing. * Yes, a joke. But what only talking about demand is a joke.

http://ecorner.stanford.edu/ : Stanford\'s Entrepreneurship Corner: Adam Lashinsky, Author - Secrets at Apple\'s Core

Tue, 28 May 2013 20:02:34 +0000

“…if Apple does things differently than the way you're teaching it and if Apple is the most successful, most admired, most valuable company in the world, shouldn't you at least be asking the question, are we teaching the right thing and should we be paying more attention to the way Apple does things?” Maybe even more importantly, the way that Apple does things (today) is more or less what transformed them from near-bankruptcy to the top of American business. It's not just how your chauffeur drives your Rolls, it's how to navigate your Prius until you've made it.

EconoMonitor : We Can See Our True Selves in the Propaganda Used Against Us

Wed, 15 May 2013 18:50:04 +0000

Also, canaries are not people! What miner should care if canaries are dropping over dead? It's all propaganda, folks! Perfectly safe and no reason to worry.

Wonkette : Our Irrational Gun Optimism Has Been Crushed By Another Horrible Accidental Shooting Because Why Not

Tue, 9 Apr 2013 16:03:31 +0000

Submit it to the Darwin Awards people.

EconoMonitor : Romancing Alpha (α), Breaking Up with Beta (β)

Mon, 18 Feb 2013 07:08:17 +0000

@R ik has a correct, buy IMO minor complaint. Mine is where you said something not incorrect, but misleading — and key to whether your thesis is correct. You wrote, “We use a scale of 0-1. Let’s say your benchmark is the S&P500 — it has a β = 1. Something uncorrelated does what it does regardless of what the SPX does, and its Beta is = 0.” First, betas can have, and for active portfolios often do have betas above 1.0: for every X% the S&P rises/falls (more than cash), you'll rationally expect your own portfolio will rise/fall maybe 1.4X%. Of course, excepting futures or options portfolios, (a) it'll seldom be EXACTLY what the beta would predict, and (b) your estimate of the beta is only a forecast, too: two different analysts WILL come up with two or more different beta estimates. Now to the bigger point: it's only for the very unusual case of a portfolio truly, completely uncorrelated to the S&P — that beta disappears. A halfway savvy portfolio manager can target beta pretty much how he likes (if allowed futures, margin, etc), but even portfolios with lots of “different drummer” return — ups and downs with very low correlation to the S&P that are meant to be alpha — beta is still there. It's actually pretty darn hard to find a long stock portfolio with truly zero beta. Alpha and beta are often confused in long histories of performance, where generally upward market returns are compared to even stronger portfolios. That could be alpha, or it could be beta above 1.0. Most individual investors are ill-equipped to analyze which, and even less to estimate the steadiness of the alpha, which is the only way you'd get any confidence that it wasn't just the one model portfolio the manager ran that had a good enough return history that people would want to buy it.

Wonkette : Try California Senator Dianne Feinstein for Treason Because These Signatures!

Fri, 28 Dec 2012 23:02:14 +0000

Has Wonkette ever been picked up by a Chinese news service, repeating all the opinion verbatim? (I especially enjoyed wondering whether “ GROBBLEFLURMENSTARM” would be treated as a loan-word from German, or perhaps a really long acronym.) Generally, Representatives Ought Be Biased Libertarians Enjoying Firearms Like Unemployed, Rioting Militiamen; Especially Nuking Sharia Terrorists (who are) All Reading Marx.

Wonkette : Great GOP Hope Marco Rubio: Let’s Just Go Ahead and Let Rich People Do Whatever

Thu, 15 Nov 2012 20:23:46 +0000

Meanwhile, a recent chart from the IRS on non-compliance shows small businesses hiding income is the biggest single element of ~ 15% underpayment of legal tax. Not as if Rubio is exposing anything new here.

Wonkette : Tea Party Learns Its Painful Electoral Lesson: That Mitt Romney Was Too Moderate

Tue, 13 Nov 2012 20:13:17 +0000

WSJ's “CEO Council” features video of Joe Lieberman (!) telling Republicans that “47%” type attitudes by R's painted *themselves* as against upward mobility. Yes, the Obama campaign was willing to help. So even Asians — who (stereotypically and in my personal experience) are aggressively interested in succeeding through hard work — voted sharply against Romney's exclusive club. Certainly the Tea Party mobilizes the Left to turn out and vote heavily, but I'd agree that as a way to win an election, losing self-described “Moderates” by 15 points and Asians by 45 needs something more than weird and mean-spirited wedge issues such as echo around Tea Party rooms.

Wonkette : A Children’s Treasury of Random Wingnut Post-Election Butthurt (Part Douche)

Mon, 12 Nov 2012 22:37:42 +0000

After looking for an antonym to Schadenfreude, none seems apt. Who has a word for “pompous, self-righteous despair?”

Wonkette : Fox Nation: Did Obama Voter Fraud All Of Philadelphia?

Mon, 12 Nov 2012 20:57:57 +0000

How shocking: if you specifically examine big-city precincts where Romney got zero votes, there were zero Romney votes in those precincts. Also, what is the chance that it was EXACTLY 59 areas where he got zero votes? I mean, it has to be less than one in … uhhh, 59? …four out of five?

EconoMonitor : Memo Shows Corzine Ordered Raiding MF Global Customer Account of $200 Million

Mon, 26 Mar 2012 00:45:27 +0000

“Edith O’Brien, a treasurer for the firm, said in an e-mail sent the afternoon of Oct. 28, three days before the company collapsed, that the transfer of the funds was “Per JC’s direct instructions,” according to a copy of a memo drafted by congressional investigators and obtained by Bloomberg News.” I'm not a lawyer, but sorry, if I were Corzine's and if this was all the prosecution had on him, I think I would feel pretty good about my chances. First, this evidence is by somebody who has obvious actual responsibility for the transfer, both in directing it and failing to recognize it as illegal. Her claim could be painted easily as to save her own skin. Second, this article cites that JPM requested direct confirmation about its legality, and never received it. So how is Corzine responsible for some miscommunication that resulted in funds transferred incorrectly? I have exactly zero additional information to any other reader's, but this seems like the worst kind of overreaction to some dodgy evidence. The history of congressional fact-finding is, in my casual reading over the years, worse than zero. I do understand how badly this reflects on the securities industry, and indirectly attacks the reputation of perfectly honest people. And certainly, many people shouldn't have lost the money. But the extent of the politicization of the issue looks harmful to the goal of preventing such losses in the future. Sure, sharpen up the tines on the pitchforks, but it might be a while still.

EconoMonitor : What Is Private Equity?

Thu, 2 Feb 2012 04:47:34 +0000

The issue with banks is interesting but I think quite separate from those of PE. There are several ways in which LBOs exploit our nation's smart, generous protection for capitalism and risk-taking: 1. When LBO shops take over a company and load it up with debt, the employees don't get to vote on the changed riskiness of their pensions. When the firm fails from the debt load, older employees especially get screwed despite the fact that they couldn't even vote with their feet by walking off with the contractual promise of compensation that gets abrogated. Oh, some of the loss gets socialized to the PBGC, letting ALL taxpayers subsidize the loss scenario. 2. There's of course unemployment insurance. Firms generally pay into state-run pools. When Bain cuts loose a couple thousand employees, the fund gets no additional cash and so still-surviving companies in the state pick up the cost for the “paid-in” coverage. Just a bit hostile to other capitalist operations. 3. Of course there are the suppliers, tax authorities and other stakeholders who get the short end of the stick when the firm gets hollowed out. That weakens other companies' finances, and requires the populace to pick up the tab for government services that the LBO'd firm received, but will not be paying for. More hurt for we the people. If the LBO shops didn't ruthlessly exploit these social programs intended to support business overall, people wouldn't be so angry with the fact that sometimes, firms have to die. At a minimum, I'd like to see serial offenders — companies like Bain that arbitrage bankruptcy and limited liability for shareholders — be prevented from enjoying the privilege of going back to the trough again and again. If they succeed, great, but if they are basically flipping a coin where everybody else picks up a big part of the bill for Tails, it's basically a way to damage our economy for a couple of individuals' private gains.

9 to 5 Mac | Apple Intelligence : Tim Cook responds to claims of factory worker mistreatment: "We care about every worker in our suppl

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 18:37:54 +0000

That's why they engaged an independent firm to monitor. Of course, if this happened in the USA, the OSHA investigators would've recommended changes, and/or some Congressperson would've held hearings where Cook would've been grilled. No such appears to be the case in China. The government could stand to up its game of showing how it cares for its own people. There've been protests, such as when substandard schools collapsed in the earthquake last year(?), killing kids. But the populace hasn't yet connected the dots between the govt and private employers.

9 to 5 Mac | Apple Intelligence : Tim Cook responds to claims of factory worker mistreatment: "We care about every worker in our suppl

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 18:27:56 +0000

My first job out of school had me heavily involved in quality control and safety concerns. At one of America's best manufacturers of toiletry products. Quality and safety are linked in some interesting ways. We built incentives for high-quality — a single smear of non-toxic assembly-line grease on a container of a product that goes into your mouth was almost enough to guarantee no bonus for the month. But never for safety, since we didn't want pressure by peers to not report an accident. The factory was proud of its lost-time work record; it spent the money to make sure it kept up. Every little accident was logged and reviewed for patterns that might show problems. It spent the bucks to hire me in part because of that. (Wish it'd worked out better for both of us.) Still, worker safety was never seen as contrary to profit. It was one of the company's values. Still is, I presume. I remember this clearly because it was drilled into us all. Safety is gnot just good, but necessary. This company was NOT Apple, but everything in Cook's letter agrees with the experience *I* personally witnessed years ago, while NONE of your claims of giving up profits agrees with it. Apple is doing it the right way, from what I read, in requiring proof of policies in its contracts with suppliers, and terminating contractors who aren't honest about their efforts. I don't know Foxconn's policies, but at the bare minimum they are getting quite an education in first world standards from their business with Apple. (Betcha we hear a response from them, too, probably with a bit more of a culturally-acceptable “we're trying to do better” tone.) No company can guarantee against all hazards, and China presents a special challenge due to an environment that doesn't value individuals much, but Apple seems to have taken a course WELL BEFORE this article was published, that is as good as it gets.

9 to 5 Mac | Apple Intelligence : Tim Cook responds to claims of factory worker mistreatment: "We care about every worker in our suppl

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 18:15:03 +0000

Got a big laugh from this post. Not the topic; I care a lot about the topic. Rather, from the ad I see next to it: it touts a cellphone case that “provides maximum protection against cellphone radiation.” There is exactly ZERO reliable evidence that people need to protect themselves against cellphone radiation. It's a snake-oil claim. Having no case at all supplies exactly the same protection. I acknowledge that the statistics have not ruled out the possibility that heavy use could cause some biological effects, but the studies HAVE found that if there is some unknown effect — cellphones' transmissions CAN'T create the ultra-high-energy ionizing radiation that IS known to affect tissues — it must be very small, or it would've been found on the long-term studies of many, many thousands of people. Proving that there is zero effect, versus at-most-tiny ones, is essentially impossible, so the fact that no studies yet claim transmissions DO NOT cause issues, doesn't trouble anybody who understands science halfway deeply. So it's funny to see lots of people comment about the evils of Apple's dishonesty, brought to us by a vendor doing exactly the same.

9 to 5 Mac | Apple Intelligence : Tim Cook responds to claims of factory worker mistreatment: "We care about every worker in our suppl

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 18:05:38 +0000

Thanks for sharing. This brings a lot to the concern about the integrity of the products we buy, and how our choices affect the world.

9 to 5 Mac | Apple Intelligence : Tim Cook responds to claims of factory worker mistreatment: "We care about every worker in our suppl

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 18:03:58 +0000

Bob, perhaps you'll describe the products in your household that are made exclusively under labor conditions that you have personally monitored. Your TV. Your radios. Your phones. Automobiles; bicycles; bike helmets. Shoes. Tables; lino floor covering; sink. Was your house/apartment built using sustainable wood products? Now, how about the food you eat. Been to a large sample of meat-packing plants lately? Or are you a vegetarian who only grows his own or buys from local farms you can personally attest to working conditions at? I'm not necessarily calling out hypocrisy here, but puhleeze: your holiness schtick is a bit much.

Technologizer : RIM's CEO Swap is No Reboot

Mon, 23 Jan 2012 23:20:48 +0000

A week ago people were all abuzz about RIM being sold, merged or chopped up in pieces by a Vulture Capitalist. But today, the sun is shining, and all they need to do is execute on the plan of the last 4 years! Utterly amazing! Truth is, market share, customer satisfaction and a clear technical roadmap for Enterprises and developers (the two major stakeholders in such today), are still disasters. There is a substantial risk that the shrinking market share makes their first-class BES and BBM irrelevant, creating a vicious downward spiral. The way out is to effectively split the company along its major product lines, and let each fight it out for survival as best it can. BlackBerry Enterprise can be a great product if it's not limited to only working on a product that few employees will touch. Ditto, BBM could snag 50¢ or $1 per month from tens or hundreds of millions of users around the world if it'd work on low-cost Nokias, Androids and even iPhones. RIM has tried to buy time on its tardy handsets by leveraging the software, but unfortunately that merely incents other firms to replace the software services — and Microsoft and a whole host of independents are doing just that. The handset business needs to focus on a target demographic that will carry it independently of the software. Today, there are still pockets of strength and identifying them independently of the loss of BES and BBM exclusivity will allow them to focus on what they MOST need to when that crutch is kicked out. Even the Playbook can survive if it's freed from association with RIM's high-price, Wall Street perception. It might be ugly — think Packard-Bell — but there's a chance that's NOT available if the company assumes that customers will buy into the hopeless tethered model, a model that takes no responsibility for its own success. In other words, it's about each team taking some responsibility — that also means, “hope” — for its own success. I wouldn't actually tear the company apart; there are good synergies that'd be lost. But it DOES need a refocus on how it will survive the very ugly 2012 ahead of it.