gdp's Comments

Fund My Mutual Fund - Stock Market, Economic, Equity Analysis - Via A Model Mutual Fund : Larry Kudlow Can\'t Find a Bear

Wed, 16 Feb 2011 17:38:08 +0000

Right on! While most of the people on CNBC make me want to shut off the TV, no one makes me want to break my screen more than Kudlow...

Fund My Mutual Fund - Stock Market, Economic, Equity Analysis - Via A Model Mutual Fund : Larry Kudlow Can\'t Find a Bear

Wed, 16 Feb 2011 16:38:13 +0000

Kudlow only changed his tone because he's a staunch ideologue. If a Republican does it, it's all good, if a Dem does it, it's all bad. Just like he's the biggest "free market capitalist" in the world until word comes that a German company, God forbid, might by the NYSE, our "bastion of capitalism." He's nothing more than a partisan hack.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Will 3-D Encounter Resistance?

Tue, 3 Aug 2010 19:08:36 +0000

Haha I like the comparison, although I really don't see 3-D as having to be ubiquitous across all film formats to be a commercial success. I personally wouldn't want to see Rudy in 3-D, but give me Avatar anyday!

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Will 3-D Encounter Resistance?

Tue, 3 Aug 2010 19:07:49 +0000

Some multiple expansion would definitely make sense for the company at this point. Not often can you buy such growth with a TTM P/E in the 20s. Their PEG is a very modest 1 right now.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Dan Gilbert is a Total Hypocrite

Fri, 9 Jul 2010 20:04:39 +0000

Yep, seems like he's letting his emotions get the best of him! He made a poor business move in cutting the price of the Lebron Fathead from $99 to $17.41 as the entire inventory apparently sold out already: http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/98128654.... Clearly he could have held out for a better price.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Say 'Hell No' to a Black Swan Free World

Fri, 9 Jul 2010 18:55:09 +0000

I'd just like to add that considering the focus on China right now, seems like people are somewhat accepting of the idea that health care costs do not need to rise in perpetuity. Am I correct in making that assumption?

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Say 'Hell No' to a Black Swan Free World

Fri, 9 Jul 2010 18:52:48 +0000

Well there's no clear catalyst at this moment to spend, hence the Black Swan--the outlier. A potential catalyst could be sluggish demand from the US generating a demand-side slump in China that requires a Chinese stimulus in response. Maybe China sees an opportunity to scoop up goods internationally on the cheap considering the lack of competitive buying. That's part of the idea, right now there is no clear reason for it to happen, but it's something within the realm of possible outcomes that is being completely disscounted.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Say 'Hell No' to a Black Swan Free World

Fri, 9 Jul 2010 17:26:15 +0000

If the past is any indication...just part of the continuation of a large infrastructure buildout.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Say 'Hell No' to a Black Swan Free World

Fri, 9 Jul 2010 16:48:27 +0000

Yep, the key is putting that value to work in the right places.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Say 'Hell No' to a Black Swan Free World

Fri, 9 Jul 2010 16:47:34 +0000

Well the when is unknown. The why is because savings at some point end up getting spent, just a matter of time. Since it's a Black Swan prediction, hard to say the exact catalyst, but one possibility is that if/when US demand is too weak for China, they will need another round of big stimulus spending to pickup demand. That spending would come out of their horde of reserves.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Major Structural Changes in US Equity Markets You Must Know

Fri, 9 Jul 2010 16:32:21 +0000

Wow there is some great stuff in there. Just from trading it felt like big orders were somewhat gone from this market, but looking at these stats it now makes perfect sense.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Was the Branding of Lebron a Failure Already?

Fri, 9 Jul 2010 14:30:54 +0000

You're very right here. And now we're in the cap age. They don't really have much ammo left to build a team around the core 3. Sure the core 3 is awesome, but who else will complete the team? I was really hoping that Prokhorov would offer Lebron an under the table $1 billion for the day he retires in order to put the Nets on the map. As for New York, the Knicks have been irrelevant for so long that everyone got excited by this being their "chance." Try again next time.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Was the Branding of Lebron a Failure Already?

Fri, 9 Jul 2010 02:37:30 +0000

Haha can't blame you!!! What a core trio on that team...

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Do You Think We Are in the Disbelief Stage of the Recovery?

Thu, 8 Jul 2010 19:03:00 +0000

I think we're still in the "depression" phase. We've had a nice bounce back yet people are now as pessimistic as they were at the "bottom." Or maybe in between the anger and depression phase. A lot of worry about "how to pay for all this" and a lot of rhetoric about who is at fault.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Tesla (TSLA) Enthusiasm Quickly Fades

Thu, 8 Jul 2010 17:46:52 +0000

Thanks, Yeah Blackstone is a PERFECT example of this. They weren't using their newfound capital for productive purposes. It was to cash out their owners.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Tesla (TSLA) Enthusiasm Quickly Fades

Thu, 8 Jul 2010 17:45:42 +0000

Yeah something is definitely stinky about the runup to ~$30 on a day the market was tanking. Were people really RUSHING to get in? Hard to believe.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Is Steve Wynn Missing the Point on China?

Thu, 8 Jul 2010 12:49:48 +0000

This is an excerpt from Wynn: “Macau has been steady. The shocking, unexpected government is the one in Washington. That’s where we get surprises every day. That’s where taxes are changed every five minutes. That’s where you don’t know that to expect tomorrow. To compare political stability and predictability in China to Washington is like comparing Mount Everest to an anthill." He conflates tax policy with ALL of politics. That's a major logical fallacy right there. Besides, taxes haven't been changed to make people pay more in this country for several decades. Wynn spoke much more broadly than you are asserting. Moreover, he was specifically talking about Macau, one of the few politically open areas in China. Again, mistaking the forest for the trees.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Is Steve Wynn Missing the Point on China?

Thu, 8 Jul 2010 12:42:56 +0000

Jack: I get that, and to an extent I see it's utility from a business perspective. My problem stems from that fact that people far and wide are pushing this same line. Cramer echoed the same sentiment saying investors would rather put their money in China or Latin America. Well if that's true, it's because there are real growth dynamics taking shape there, not government policy. Growth is occurring in these reasons in some respects despite governments that are rather arbitrary and unpredictable without a history of civic society, yet people assert that the US is not ripe for investment because OUR government is arbitrary and unpredictable.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Is Steve Wynn Missing the Point on China?

Thu, 8 Jul 2010 12:05:47 +0000

Isn't that exactly what missing the point is? I'm asserting two points basically: 1) Steve Wynn is wrong with regard to what he says, as China is arbitrary and Macau is a unique example where things are done differently than on the mainland; 2) talk about economic policy all you want, but the real fact of the matter is that there's no comparing the US and China when it comes to individual liberties, and that is THE most important point in setting up a free society and open economy. He misses that point altogether by worrying excessively about taxes alone. To talk about a preference for investing in China as opposed to the US while NOT EVEN BRINGING UP the human rights element is missing the point in my book. Like I said above, "to conflate tax policy with policy generally speaking" is missing the point. To breakout a cliche, it's mistaking the forest for the trees.

Wall St. Cheat Sheet : Greece-ification: Is California the Next Greece?

Wed, 7 Jul 2010 17:22:29 +0000

Our system of federalism gives a whole lot of power to the small states in the Senate relative to big states (I'm speaking demographically here). That is a major drain on the big state economies, as their representatives in Congress can't seem to extract the same amount of money as their small-state counterparts. This is a big factor in the politicization of budgetary short-falls in big states. In many respects, the problems are structural and political, rather than economic, and the solutions being discussed (and the no bailout talk) are very much political, not economically sound or consistent ideas. The morality of no bailouts sounds great, but as you said Adam, in the larger scheme of things, it's been the big states bailing out the small all along.