Arthur

Arthur

104p

2,670 comments posted · 2 followers · following 0

51 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Interview. Leadsom acc... · 0 replies · +1 points

I don't like Leadsom either, but it seems a little unfair to publish an interview with her babbling about preparations for No Deal being interfered with by the Benn Act and Letwin yesterday afternoon. Yesterday afternoon is a long time ago in Brexit politics and she wouldn't be grateful for having yesterday's nonsense published today.

51 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Jack Airey: How to unl... · 1 reply · +1 points

Following up on the suggestion made in comments on part 1 to attach lots of Union Flag's to Bojo's bridge between NI and GB.

That could meet with unforseen difficulties in actually building such a bridge.

But NOTHING could prevent this government "starting construction" at both ends IMMEDIATELY.

Bojo has the right spirit of daring and verve, not even hesitating to confabulate legislating Brexit in 3 days with a majority of -43.

Large numbers of civil servants were redeployed to DexEU straight after Bojo applied for an extension to show Bojo's determination to leave on October 31 "come what may". They are already becoming restive:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oc...

They should be marched immediately to Portpatrick, in Dumfries and Galloway, and Larne in Northern Ireland, to erect lots of Union Jacks at the proposed construction site at each end of Bojo's bridge.

Looking forward to part 3. Hopefully it will prepare for Scotland demanding the same terms as NI which would require customs posts near the border. The Union Flag could be IMMEDIATELY erected along the entire length of Hardrian's Wall in preparation and joyful celebration of the Conservative and Unionist party's contributions to the Union.

51 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Push, Varadkar, push. ... · 13 replies · +1 points

"...hoping that all concerned take it in the spirit in which it is intended."

Fine. I take it the spirit is one of comforting the beareaved and giving them hope of reunion with their loved one in an afterlife that has sunlit uplands, unicorns and flying angels with harps.

But it will soon be time to move beyond that and start preparing for the Bojo bounce to plummet as his promises have ALREADY imploded (unless of course he is rescued by Varadkar, Juncker, Macron or a team of flying pigs with lipstick...).

The general election won't be long after the confirmatory referendum that ends Bojo's Brexit.

Until then the Tory party is still the largest party in the House and could still establish a PR electoral system that would enable it to survive as a small minority party despite the debacle of having divided the whole country, endangered the Union and wasted 3 years and 3 Tory PMs on ERG fantasies.

If instead you continue blithering about rescue by your enemies you will find your vote is split much more evenly with the Brexit party after having fought a bitter battle with them in the confirmatory referendum and neither Brexiteer party will win as many seats under the present electoral system as it could under PR.

Also you might want to think about the long term value of an electoral system that forced you to try and appease Nigel Farage in the hope of avoiding the situation you will now find yourselves in.

51 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Andrew Gimson's Common... · 0 replies · +1 points

Nothing to do with FtPA. If government resigns and House has not told palace who has its confidence palace would have to commission leader of the opposition whether or not recommended by caretaker PM.

Bojo would prefer Corbyn as best chance for VoNC producing GE 14 days later. But unlikely to work as House majority already prepared for it able to legislate together and able to agree on replacement PM.

Also, another possibility arises as a side effect of Baldrick's cunning plan of prorogation.

Corbyn could prorogue immediately after appointment and before VoNC.

See end of my analysis here:
https://wp.me/p5b82u-Lp

51 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Andrew Gimson's Common... · 1 reply · +1 points

Nothing to do with FtPA. If government resigns and House has not told it who has its confidence palace would have to commission leader of the opposition whether or not recommended by caretaker PM.

Bojo would most likely recommend Corbyn in hope of getting a GE 14 days after a VoNC against Corbyn.

52 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Andrew Gimson's Common... · 0 replies · +1 points

Even more improved if (or rather when) Bojo's Brexit has been defeated at a confirmatory referendum and soft Brexit BRINO offered by Labour as a credible alternative to Remain is the only option left for Brexit supporters to support at a "Final Say" (at which Labour will decide to campaign against it because it is a harmless but also pointless BRINO).

See my comment below.

52 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Andrew Gimson's Common... · 0 replies · +1 points

"Might it not be convenient for Corbyn if the Bill does pass? It is a horribly divisive issue within the Labour Party, and it would be agonising for him, as a lifelong Eurosceptic, to find himself fighting an election as the leader who wants to stop Brexit."

OF COURSE it would be convenient for Corbyn and the Labor party if the Bill does pass. But not for the blitheringly stupid reason suggested.

It is BLINDINGLY OBVIOUS that Labour needs a totally unacceptable Tory Brexit Bill to attach a confirmatory referendum to.

Bojo just gave them one.

52 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Andrew Gimson's Common... · 0 replies · +1 points

Simple majority would amend it to set a date within a short period of certified results of "Final Say" referendum so government runs out of excuses.

52 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Andrew Gimson's Common... · 2 replies · +1 points

My guess is the next few days may be spent posturing for an election. Bojo won't get one while the latest YouGov poll still has Tories at 37% with a 15% lead (and Brexit party still down to 11%). Solid majority of MPs have shown they are determined to go through the Withdrawal Agreement in detail.

The majority of 30 for it in principle at second reading depends entirely on 19 Labour MPs and 11 Tory rebels. Of the Labour MPs at most 14 might conceivably defy a 3000 line whip for a confirmatory referendum (4 of the other five are retiring anyway, the other would be expelled if she did). If other Tory MPs were needed for a confirmatory referendum they could easily come out of the woodwork but those numbers already make a majority for that amendment inevitable.

If those 19 Labour MPs had NOT been allowed to vote the way they did, there would be no specific concrete proposal to attach a confirmatory referendum to and Bojo would be in a much stronger position for eventually getting a general election with Brexit a live issue.

But the actual outcome should now be obvious to all but the true believers. More than 15 additional votes will support an amendment for a confirmatory referendum, which results in a majority for it. If necessary the DUP could also abstain, subtracting another 10 votes from those against. But that is unlikely to be needed to stop the deal and they would prefer to avoid a precedent for Scottish indyref2.

The hardest possible Brexit for GB will be put to a referendum in which it will be opposed not only by Remainers, who have been a small majority in the polls throughout Bojo's term as PM, but also by soft Brexiteers, by the Brexit party, by a large majority in Scotland and pretty well everybody in Northern Ireland.

It is the least likely Brexit to win acceptance, apart from "No Deal".

Congratulations Bojo!

52 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Parliament's Remainers... · 0 replies · +1 points

PS Re point 5 see my comments in current thread here:
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/201...

That thread is also better for continuing this discussion generally as the article mentions most aspects of the current situation.