gdp's Comments

Marketwi.se : Daily Links 6-5-2010

Tue, 8 Jun 2010 06:00:40 +0000

that is a noble desire, but our society and culture no longer value work in the same way they used to. If people don't have to leave their house to socialize, why leave their house to work? ....Particularly if other taxpayers through our government will just pay you to chill. Of course, that party will come to an end sooner or later. My fear is that party will end before we have jobs to give these people.

Marketwi.se : Daily Links 6-5-2010

Sun, 6 Jun 2010 08:05:51 +0000

Let's see, am I going to collect $1,200 a month in unemployment benefits, or go work 40 hours a week at my local Wal-Mart so I can take home $1,300. Tough decision.

Marketwi.se : Redbox, Netflix and the Death of Video Rental Stores

Thu, 3 Jun 2010 14:05:52 +0000

did you short the stock while all this was taking place? No, you didn't do anything? Well, that's almost shocking to think about :) I'm not defending crappy management, but just saying.... Note, I didn't short the sucker either....

Square Feet : Not Much To Say

Tue, 25 May 2010 19:36:20 +0000

Thanks - I'm certainly not "retiring", but it'll be less focused on deals and more on where I think things are headed, but posts will certainly continue to be less frequent that in the past. Nevertheless, the industry will come around soon enough, but it will be out of necessity not desire.

Square Feet : Moody's/REAL CPPI Index Down .5% in March

Thu, 20 May 2010 02:04:47 +0000

thx fixed

Square Feet : Kudos to Cornish & Carey

Mon, 10 May 2010 20:07:06 +0000

it was being done pretty much across the board in Silicon Valley, though it seems DT PA data is still somewhat obscured.

Square Feet : What The Market Told Us Today

Fri, 7 May 2010 05:15:38 +0000

two words. back stop

Marketwi.se : AgentGenius on CRE Websites

Sat, 1 May 2010 05:43:42 +0000

If lockboxes were standardized, coordinated, and issued through the association, then I think you would look at this differently. Don't want to abide by the rules, pay the fine or you're out simple as that. Perhaps this sounds a bit tough, but that's what it takes to get people on board. Hope is not a strategy that works real well with brokers, psychological change or not. Remember, even though you may not like CoStar's pricing, the reality is that if it or any other agreed upon system were to cost the $400-$500/month to join and be a member of, then it creates a nice little barrier to entry for you once you're inside. I would be more than happy to pay $6,000 a year in dues if it meant that it would not only get me a solid database, but that it would regulate the amount of competition which moves into the industry.

Marketwi.se : AgentGenius on CRE Websites

Fri, 30 Apr 2010 08:16:11 +0000

The solution is a big stick. Relying on brokers, or worse yet, the "crowd" to push data to a database is a problem. Which database you ask - well that is your other problem - no standards. Is it Loopnet? CoStar? CommercialMLS? you get the picture. The solution is to have commercial brokers belong to an association, with some sort of agreed upon database/repository as the standard. It can be homegrown, CoStar, Loopnet, whatever, just something that is mandated. Within 72 hours of taking a listing, it needs to be in the database or there is a fine. That's how the residential MLS works, and why it works so well. Because of confidentiality perhaps there is a carve out for sale listings, but at least for leases, they should be in the system. The same fine would apply if a space is leased and not removed from the db within 72 hours as well.

Square Feet : Roubini's Back: "In A Few Days There Might Not Be A Eurozone"

Thu, 29 Apr 2010 02:37:53 +0000

It's spreading and the only remedy governments have is printing money. Unfortunately for the Euro Zone countries is that the "collective" is anything but when it comes to bailouts, stimulus plans. The evidence? Twenty percent plus yields on 2-year Greek toilet paper.

Square Feet : BOMA: The Standard For Measuring Office Space

Mon, 19 Apr 2010 08:11:12 +0000

BOMA is primarily for office. Leasable is a term more common in retail leasing. In general, retail spaces are measured from the outside of the premises on exterior walls, and to the midpoint of any demising walls. Of course, the lease could define the term Leaseable to mean anything. As of a year or two ago, ICSC and BOMA were working on a retail standard, though not sure that's been finalized yet.

Square Feet : Commercial Real Estate REO Broker's Association Scam

Sat, 20 Feb 2010 01:09:27 +0000

A retraction? Does the media go back and retract or clarify a story every time something originally reported changes? I think the fact that I allow comments and you clarified is more than adequate in this case.

Square Feet : Commercial Real Estate REO Broker's Association Scam

Fri, 19 Feb 2010 05:13:54 +0000

You're obviously a fanboy, but for your information, when we wrote this, the site did accept credit card info through an unsecure site. They also didn't have the 5-year experience policy in place. Therefore, the policies of CREOBA have been changed because we were right, not because we didn't have our facts straight. Looking through a lot of the people on the website however, many, many still seem to be entrenched in residential RE.

Square Feet : Premier Retail Location in Default

Tue, 16 Feb 2010 18:45:09 +0000

agreed - tough deal for the buyer who it seems is also in the process of having his home foreclosed on too...

Square Feet : The Irony of Silicon Valley

Thu, 4 Feb 2010 15:50:04 +0000

Two points. First one being that you made my point for me and that is that I don't need to call up all the different brokerage companies -- just Cornish & Carey. Virtually everybody else makes all their data available so I can quickly go on their website to cross reference any listings to make sure I have the updated rental rates and availability. This not only saves their brokers' time and lets them focus on real deals, but it saves me time and gives the other brokerage's properties a better chance of making it onto my survey or tour. The second point is in regards to the data exchange you mention. The complaint I have about the data is shared by brokers at the biggest firms that are out there (they too use your website search). That is what prompted me to actually write a blog post about it. I admittedly don't know all the details about the data exchange, but if people at some big shops are complaining, then either they don't know about the data exchange or it's not working. John, this really isn't about making it better for the "other 10%". It's about making brokerage better, period.

Square Feet : The Irony of Silicon Valley

Tue, 2 Feb 2010 09:45:36 +0000

John, I appreciate your comments. Here's mine:

Databases are only as good as the people who maintain them and the frequency with which it is done. Sadly, in commercial real estate information is not as real-time as it should be. Cornish agents have called me about my listings in the past for the purpose of updating your database. But those calls came once every 2 months.

As I'm sure you've noticed, things happen and change more often than every 2 months, so having a database is great, unless it's updated once every 2 months. I'm not doubting that it's hard and tedious work to keep an up-to-date database, and that it is an ongoing effort, but I personally think the industry should and could do a lot better. As an example, I recently got contacted by a Cornish agent about a listing I had that I leased 4 months ago. If his data came from your database, then I'm not sure what that says about it.

I hope this explains why I believe making real-time data available on your website is crucial, regardless of whether somebody has CoStar, Loopnet, their own database, or just prints and keeps on their desk a list of the monthly exclusive listing reports that are generated by the brokerage houses. To assume that your website is only used by those few local brokers I think is a mistake. Every broker with a tenant requirement matters, particularly in this market!

This is a discussion that I think needs to be had amongst ASVB and commercial brokerages everywhere. The intention of this post was to elicit discussion, comments, and perhaps even get Cornish to reverse its practice of hiding the data on its website.

Given everything which has happened with the internet in the past 24 months alone, using and relying on some system developed 8 years ago I think says more about the industry and way things are done than I could say even if I rambled on for another 5000 words.

Square Feet : The Irony of Silicon Valley

Sun, 31 Jan 2010 13:38:33 +0000

Hi John....still waiting for Part 2, but nowhere in the article did I indicate Cornish & Carey was not an established organization or that it didn't have some of the most seasoned brokers in the valley. I made it pretty clear that I don't know the exact reason why your firm is doing this and that I was speculating. I did this on two different instances in the post.

I look forward to hearing why the data has been replaced with "Contact Agent". I know I'm not the only one.

Square Feet : CRE Videos ... Sternlicht and More

Sat, 30 Jan 2010 13:59:47 +0000

I\\\'m with you. Back in October, I responded to an article out claiming that CRE won\\\'t be the next shoe to drop (http://bit.ly/3JHVJY). I too don\\\'t understand what it will take for people to come out of denial that the shoe already has dropped. Aside from prices, think about how the financing and underwriting landscape has changed since this time in 2007. There has been a 180 degree change! The point is, remember all these names. Because when they finally come on TV and admit what they should be admitting now, then it\\\'s time to jump in. Particularly if they show up on CNBC!

Square Feet : CEO of Jones Lang LaSalle on CNBC

Sat, 30 Jan 2010 13:47:38 +0000

The GDP numbers in Q4 won\\\'t hold so I wouldn\\\'t worry about that too much, but that doesn\\\'t mean we won\\\'t have stagflation. This could stem from a falling dollar. We\\\'ve seen strength in the dollar recently, but whether that will hold up or not as we get towards 100% debt to GDP remains to be seen. There are a lot of risks in the economy, and as you mentioned you need to reduce reward by risk to get to a risk-adjusted rate of return (regardless of whether you\\\'re an IRR or yield investor). The fact that these levels of risk remain in the market should be a signal that prices won\\\'t be returning as you indicate. As far as banks figuring out what to do with assets, we\\\'re still very, very early in the game. I put an offer in on a commercial property this week and the listing agent called me back and said \\\"I\\\'ve never done a commercial deal\\\". That alone tells me we have a ways to go.

Square Feet : The Irony of Silicon Valley

Sat, 30 Jan 2010 13:39:38 +0000

I\\\'m not disagreeing with you, there are probably benefits to what they are doing. My issue is that a) the benefit is to Cornish & Carey, not the Landlord to whom they owe a fiduciary responsibility, and b) it\\\'s just a regressive business practice. The question is what is this protectionism stemming from? Are they being hurt by the increasing public availability of data? If so, then unless everybody takes their data into hiding, and goes back to announcing everything by fax, this policy ends up defeating itself. If people think that commercial brokerage is immune from some of the same forces that have changed the residential landscape, they are in denial. The pace of change is slower but it doesn\\\'t mean change is not happening to the business landscape. It\\\'s all about adding value, and any fat will be cut off by the market over the long term.