61 comments posted · 0 followers · following 0

88 weeks ago @ The Reality-Based Comm... - A Poissible Outcome · 2 replies · +1 points

This is an excellent point. It might work on some people around him who know the truth as well, that there's no escape from tragedy except to confront it rather than wait until it just gets worse.

Trump probably is in denial, this might force him to be less so. He might, still, count on dying before it comes out, but that hardly counts as winning and the people around him who know the truth will still be exposed.

So is the headline meaningful or just a typo?

90 weeks ago @ The Reality-Based Comm... - James Hansen and the w... · 0 replies · 0 points

Thanks - ordered the book!

90 weeks ago @ The Reality-Based Comm... - James Hansen and the w... · 2 replies · +1 points

Great post, as is usually the case.

So, any good book recommendations on the history of renewable power development and implementation?

113 weeks ago @ The Reality-Based Comm... - Cross-border election ... · 0 replies · +2 points

Strongly agree with third and disagree with Mark K on this point. There is a process value to democracy that is of benefit both to that country and to the world (the democratic peace theorem has lots of support). Sabotaging democracy to achieve a particular end is a bad idea. I'm sure that in many cases where the Cold War US sabotaged other countries' democracies, the Americans told themselves they were acting for good.

114 weeks ago @ The Reality-Based Comm... - Getting biofuels wrong... · 1 reply · +1 points

I expect the carbon cycle for the US Southeast is two decades, not much longer, so that argument doesn't seem applicable. Even for trees with longer regrow periods, that's nothing as compared to coal. I think this argument needs some refinement.

The non-climate-related sustainability of forests in the US Southeast is another question - monocrop forests etc., but they could be managed better and still be a fuel source.

More generally, bioenergy plus carbon sequestration is one of the few viable possibilities for negative carbon emissions. I wouldn't rule out bioenergy so quickly.

123 weeks ago @ The Reality-Based Comm... - Is Roy Moore guilty be... · 3 replies · +2 points

I don't feel especially inclined to be fair to Moore because I think the evidence strongly indicates he's lying and the women are telling the truth. It's a missed issue in fact that he's lying today, now, and this goes beyond the issue of misdeeds from many years ago to the present day character of the man.

But, to be fair, his saying he didn't know Corfman, isn't completely inconsistent with having met her once on the courthouse steps, spent a few minutes with this young girl whose name he didn't pay much attention to, and then never seeing her again and forgetting the whole incident. That particular encounter could've happened and Moore forgot about it. The rest though is clearly contradictory and the women and corroborating witnesses far more believable.

130 weeks ago @ The Reality-Based Comm... - On arguing with fools,... · 0 replies · +1 points

Gotta love people like aajax who think a conclusory statement proves anything. MK laid out in detail the dishonesty from Althouse, and we can see here what aajax thinks is the refutation.

134 weeks ago @ The Reality-Based Comm... - The end of fossil-fuel... · 0 replies · +1 points

"coal-mine-to-wheel analysis"

I saw that incorrectly portrayed at a Bloomberg blog as a life-cycle analysis, not a production analysis. When you consider lifetime emissions, EVs are far better environmentally.

134 weeks ago @ The Reality-Based Comm... - The end of fossil-fuel... · 2 replies · +2 points

My hobbyhorse issue (and maybe I should re-examine it if noone else considers it important) is that ICEV will get increasingly less convenient relative to EVs, and that will accelerate conversion.

One cause is external - in many places land is getting more valuable, and gas stations can't keep up in value, so they disappear and the convenience of ICEV lessens.

The more interesting cause is internal, in that as EVs grab real market share they will reduce support for the ICEV gas station and ICE maintenance infrastructure, and that will create a virtuous cycle. This is obviously true at high level EV percentage of vehicle miles traveled, but I think could also have an effect when gas demand is cut just 5-10%. We'll see whether this is true in Norway soon enough, but if accurate then it's an effect that will hit the market but hasn't yet been experienced.

A third factor I haven't thought through as much is R&D. Current investment and production design determines the models that will be offered for sale five-ten years from now. Increasing percentage of R&D goes to EV which is at least partially a zero-sum game that reduces investment in ICEV R&D. There will be fewer ICEV makes and models in ten years than would've been the case in the absence of EVs, and that will also help move the market to EVs.

145 weeks ago @ The Reality-Based Comm... - The absolute norm of n... · 0 replies · +1 points

Thanks for this post, and the punch-a-nazi meme at places like Lawyers Guns and Money was execrable (and for some there, encouraged with sincerity and not as a stupid joke).

I have no problem with mockery and intense anger. Promoting violence is the main problem, but dehumanizing your opponents is another. The LGM blog above is a good example again, first saying repeatedly that punching people you consider nazis is good, and then saying repeatedly that immigration police forces (ICE) are "Gestapo." Other bloggers there have referred to conservatives as having "punchable faces". Still others there to their own credit have pushed back.