en-us https://www.intensedebate.com/users/253413 Comments by Lorenzo Albano F. http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/10/oppo-fit-for-primaries.html#IDComment37514314 But without some mechanism for hearing the constituency, for empowering them, how do we get donations and volunteers? Tue, 6 Oct 2009 17:59:56 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/10/oppo-fit-for-primaries.html#IDComment37514314 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/10/oppo-fit-for-primaries.html#IDComment36930982 To put it in black and white: There's at least a significant minority (if not a plurality) of opposition voters who will not bother to get up and vote for candidates that are not unity candidates, and credible at that. Count me there. Hell no I won't vote! if they do not have something credible this time. There are Ni-ni's. They are disaffected. I don't see them enthusiastic about opposition candidates perceived to be egotistic, following their own hunger for power and nominated in Star Chambers. For that, they are already governed by chavistas. It is incumbent, it has the money and gives it away freely, too. So, it would be good for the opposition parties to show that they can choose candidates well-liked by constituencies. If they go separate, and if they don't hear the voters, the little money they might have allotted for elections will achieve little, if anything. They will not line up any money when they seem the losers already. Another bad showing as opposition and they will be (justly) blamed for the mess. Sin el chivo y sin el mecate. Oh, and did I mention a common platform to be adhered to by all unity candidates? That's important too. That can be drafted by all political parties before the primaries, without going to any ballots. But they have not done it. Not before the regional elections. Sat, 3 Oct 2009 03:33:20 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/10/oppo-fit-for-primaries.html#IDComment36930982 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/10/oppo-fit-for-primaries.html#IDComment36904356 Sure enough, Quico. But if they have no money whatsoever for primaries... HOW ARE THEY GOING TO CAMPAIGN WHEN ELECTIONS COME? That costs a lot of money. And they have to line up donors. If they are that flat broke, they can as well forget elections and leave them to other organizations. And I mean it, it will be a hard, uphill campaign if they do not produce credible unity. All the signs of futility flashing red. They will need to do a lot of campaining to get ANYTHING at all. They will not have enthusiastic opposition voters, nor volunteers from outside their already depleted parties. They will be fighting abstention and disillusion from hell just to get people to vote. They will be running separate efforts, thus multiplying the overall costs. And they will probably ensure that chavismo's candidates (who are united, if anything) win handily. Thus reinforcing their very negative image and hopeless predicament. And they will be blamed for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. I think that's a way to convince them. If they are really in a tight spot. They either have money for primaries (and campaigning) or not. If they do not do primaries, their money for campaining will go to waste. With their useless organizations. Fri, 2 Oct 2009 23:11:47 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/10/oppo-fit-for-primaries.html#IDComment36904356 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/09/elite-permutations.html#IDComment35106092 But Pulpo's comment carries an itty bit of truth... It's a pattern as old as the world, that repeats itself and has been noted by more economists and sociologists than I care to remember: A corrupt and warped environment forces you to accept corrupt and warped transactions. Even if you do not intend to swindle. Infrequently you have no connections and win. Mostly you are royally scr*wed while under a false sense of entitlement when you receive peanuts and are robbed of everything else. Howcome $2500 paid at a preferential rate (if you get them) will offset your having to pay some of the highest prices in the whole world for necessities the whole year? Or having to bribe everyone in sight with some "authority"? Or living in fear for property and life? In Venezuela, corruption and thievery can be found in every layer of society. From the top to the bottom. A lot of folk don't see anything wrong with taking something not theirs that is unguarded, or to have to pay bribes, or to take your dollar allowance and use it in something else, or in driving around with gas at less than 1 cent a liter. Only Quico is not to blame for this. The thieves are those who eschew free market mechanisms for exchange and institute a controlled market that is pure robbery and THEN make it mandatory. Pulpo: You could well accuse the people who buy at Mercal or just anybody filling up at a gas station, they buy wares sold at a loss. That's the downfall of democracy and the evident corruption of "socialism" centrally administered. Gifts and bribes. Only, that to REALLY ride this gravy train and come ahead consistently, you have to be adept at "politicking, bureaucratic empire-building, scheming and intriguing". The whole system is warped. The guys riding the gravy train do not run a gauntlet to get scarce $2500 for expenses that they actually make. They think really big and go for much bigger prizes. The fun thing is, that precisely these things, Mercal, the almost-free gas and CADIVI make possible the huge rackets these thieves operate. Pulpo, the raw truth is, there never was a "Revolution", just a highly authoritarian and equally highly corrupt group that took over in Venezuela. It will bleed itself to death through these and more perverse mechanisms... and you will have the adequate material for feeling nostalgic. Sat, 19 Sep 2009 19:16:55 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/09/elite-permutations.html#IDComment35106092 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/09/elite-permutations.html#IDComment34997442 There is a lot to suck out, but there are a lot of bloodsuckers, and the more they gorge the more they will crave. Maybe, maybe, the amounts they suck will reach a plateau. But the rest of Venezuela's economy is not in a rosy shape, so... Fri, 18 Sep 2009 15:09:12 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/09/elite-permutations.html#IDComment34997442 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/09/elite-permutations.html#IDComment34933248 Quico, you have spoken pure truth... If i believed in Truth with a capital T I would say you spoke that too. Now, if most of Venezuela's revenue is coming from oil, the arbitrageurs and the "permuta" system are just a mechanism for soaking Bs that came mainly from the government that prints them in the first instance. Wicked! if oil revenue and accumulated wealth from past years can stand it. The thought is laughable that ANYTHING Chavez says or does will even faze "businessmen" and "importers" like that mentioned by moctavio in his comment. The Revolution will be bled white. When that happens, it will end. Thu, 17 Sep 2009 23:05:01 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/09/elite-permutations.html#IDComment34933248 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/face-of-chavismo-today.html#IDComment32529935 Let's begin with the well armed professional goons for the Revolution, dear John, and we will believe in the righteousness of your sentiments. Let's continue with the immensely rich and corrupt in the government, by all means. Let's, please! Sun, 30 Aug 2009 05:14:18 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/face-of-chavismo-today.html#IDComment32529935 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/face-of-chavismo-today.html#IDComment32529729 An almost off topic comment: The State has no rights whatsoever and deserves no "security", beyond that needed to fulfill a few basic functions (mainly those outlined in the first few articles of any Constitution about preserving citizens' rights) and should never be accorded the power to violate the VERY REAL rights of citizens, for any reason. This is what we get when we carry on with doctrines that are not only wrong, but immoral. Immoral because they allow hacks like this to perform whatever capricious actions they are ordered to perform. Wrong because they are badly enough defined to allow capricious interpretations of law-breaking and suitable punishment, not to mention fair trial, in the worst cases. Doctrines about "state security" and "destabilization", and the like pretty words, are not new in Venezuelan discourse. Nor is the DISIP. Only now we have a government able and willing to carry them to the suitably "socialist" and "revolutionary" extreme. Next time, if we have yet a country and not some fourth world hellhole, remind ourselves never to allow those toxic concepts, however well-intentioned the attempt might seem, to slip by us and get into law. Sun, 30 Aug 2009 05:09:04 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/face-of-chavismo-today.html#IDComment32529729 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/which-i-guess-makes-it-official.html#IDComment31959821 Huzzah!!!! Tue, 25 Aug 2009 18:34:31 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/which-i-guess-makes-it-official.html#IDComment31959821 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/chavismos-idea-of-press-freedom.html#IDComment30707296 Well, he should be blamed. After all... Hugo's (purportedly) President and should have resigned a thousand times... Beginning 11 April 2002. You know? The President has a mission as head of the Executive, first and foremost: keeping the peace among citizens in the Republic. This treacherous failure, Hugo Chavez, was elected President and invested President. Only he has never been that, in ten years. Yep, treacherous fits, he failed INTENTIONALLY and perjured when he was sworn in. Oh, go learn what Republic means, or rather meant. Venezuela is, sadly, no longer a Republic. Fri, 14 Aug 2009 00:52:35 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/chavismos-idea-of-press-freedom.html#IDComment30707296 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/ceci-nest-pas-une-innondation.html#IDComment30705323 "Ceci N'est Pas Une Innondation" More than fitting, it's perfect! Fri, 14 Aug 2009 00:25:49 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/ceci-nest-pas-une-innondation.html#IDComment30705323 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/chavez-gets-one-right.html#IDComment30568228 "That is why if you are in Venezuela and you do something that the government does not expect or want you to do, while not harming any of your fellow citizens, you are a subversive. In that light, this blog, or any other, are subversive. Praise be…! " That's the kernel of it. An unpopular activity, a demagogue, and political power... Somehow he will tell us all why we should cheer on as he bans the activity. Some concocted positive "right", derision for activities you do not engage in, and appeals to the most primitive of our herd instincts, and we are set to ban it. Wed, 12 Aug 2009 21:58:26 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/chavez-gets-one-right.html#IDComment30568228 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/chavez-gets-one-right.html#IDComment30529576 You must be joking, Quico. If the world was according to my wishes... golf would be played with crocs in the ponds and rattlers in the sand traps and jaguars in the woods... well, I don't like golf much, either. But, golf (and a host of other unpopular activities) function as a litmus test. If you can tolerate it even though you dislike it, it means that you have a working notion of Other's People's Business, Property and Lives. If there are too many golf courses when other needs (for space) are more urgent, this means that too much money is concentrated in too few hands. Because, then, the people with needs would have money enough to prevail and buy. I don't think there are too many golf courses in Venezuela, by the way. Sure, we can never know which is which on hearing somebody go about it, because intolerant people will always shoot some urgency out of their sleeve to enact prohibition and confiscate. So, again, I would leave the question of the use of the land on golf courses in the hands of their owners. By the by... Hugo? an opportunist and a demagogue always trying to find something to pontificate about, rail against, and dominate (sorry... democratize). Wed, 12 Aug 2009 15:46:45 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/chavez-gets-one-right.html#IDComment30529576 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/ending-tsunami-of-paja-on-gringos-in.html#IDComment30063677 Only that most Venezuelans want nothing to do with Castro's Cuba... Might accept the gifts, if they come, but the strategic partnership, to most is just reviving DEAD ideology and even deader symbols. Sat, 8 Aug 2009 17:09:54 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/ending-tsunami-of-paja-on-gringos-in.html#IDComment30063677 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/uribe-and-obama-should-scrap-their-deal.html#IDComment29809259 I do not have much of an opinion as to the utility of the bases to Colombia's efforts against the FARC, or the utility of the bases for U.S. operations and interests. Yes, some glee at looking how it pokes Hugo in the eye, but that's irrational and it's only because Huguito asked for it loud and clear when he began arming at Uncle Vlad's Soviet Surplus Store, and when he began openly supporting the FARC (did he arm them too?) On the other hand. There's a relevant question to ask regarding Colombia's (and Afghanistan's, and Bolivia's, and Peru's, and Mexico's and some of Venezuela's) suffering. You almost hit it: "Is it really worth it to anger its allies in order to appease its military establishment who persist in fighting a misguided war on drugs that, frankly, is not showing much in the way of results? " Nope, it's not worth it. That's because the whole drug war and the whole drug prohibition business is not worth it and has unintended consequences written all over. Grisly, ghastly, horrendous, pick every adjective you can think of. How can we describe ecological disasters, guerrillas, political instability, terrorism, painful death (unimaginable torture and murder too), organized crime (yes, every national and international flavor of Mafia), and street crime put together? Now the question is... The psychotropic drugs, how legal do we want them to be? How "medical", if you will? Thu, 6 Aug 2009 22:22:59 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/uribe-and-obama-should-scrap-their-deal.html#IDComment29809259 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/gas-del-bueno.html#IDComment29659060 Political thuggery is as old as politics. The Lina Ron band are political thugs, plain and simple. They use violence to intimidate and silence. Fascism, or at least fascist methods, become apparent after a simple check: Whether these groups have been openly endorsed by the government and their spokesmen... True. These groups speak openly of violence, threaten violence, plan violence, and have well-known places of reunion and the government looks on with benevolence... True, they have a very public place at Carmelitas corner, Caracas, in the downtown, at most six corners from the Asamblea Nacional and Miraflores Palace. The condemnation by the government will be only symbolic and we will see them soon enough laughing together, as before this one, or the one before that. True... for all previous occasions, and probably this one too. The legal and penal consequences of their actions are always fit to make you laugh... or grit your teeth in anger. True, for about every past act of violence from Lina Ron and associates. All this means that the State has fallen into the hands of gangsters who want to give their opponents a good old fashioned beating without looking the part of thugs. So they resort to these guys, who know that they will only get away with a pat on the hand. If somebody is still skeptical about these being fascist methods or doubtful about how they work, they should check William Shirer's "Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" Thu, 6 Aug 2009 03:57:40 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/08/gas-del-bueno.html#IDComment29659060 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/07/protecting-poor-defenseless.html#IDComment29653955 As expected, given your regard (or lack thereof) for anything having to do with individual freedom. Thu, 6 Aug 2009 03:36:08 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/07/protecting-poor-defenseless.html#IDComment29653955 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/07/bazooka-hugo.html#IDComment28890179 Maybe the answer is that Chavez is under a different set of incentives, different from those of a reasonable, down-to-earth government with a malevolent agenda towards it's neighbors and Macchiavelian methods. Such a government would be rational, having every every interest in not getting caught naked in it's malice, and not breaking economic relations. We here, tend to think and put ourselves in the shoes of modern states with modern diplomacy, using Macchiavelian (rational, even if malicious and cynical) methods, even if we do not approve of them at all (I am fairly close to being a Libertarian). But... maybe Chavez wants to make sure that everyone "in the know" learns that he is helping the FARC, and proclaiming it openly, without actually getting caught confessing by the "enemy" (Colombians) and the "dupes" (Swedes). That he is unrepentant and will send the Venezuelan-Colombian trade to hell, rather than back down, ever. He is then the not-so-openly declared enemy of the Colombian govt. Or maybe he is just plain mad and has gone North Korean all the way for no reason I can think of. Even before I finished reading the first paragraph of this post, I suspected you were referring to North Korean behavior patterns. The motivations of the North Koreans are well known: blackmail of Japan and South Korea. Give us food and fuel and we will not threaten your cities. We are nuts and have nukes and ballistic missiles. Don't question us, don't query us, we are really badass and we-have-nukes. Instead Chavez has the Venezuelan-Colombian trade and not much more to hold hostage, and no reasons to act mad. Hands down, the Colombian military would beat the Venezuelan military, specially with U.S. aid. At the very least the Colombian helicopters and tanks have to be shot bad before they crash and burn... But maybe it's all the instinct of a reckless military man who knows only that whenever something happens, you should go on the offensive with whatever you have. Even if it means shooting yourself, because you are literally hugging the "enemy". What are his motivations, then? Are they realistic motivations? To this date, his efforts have harmed Venezuela's foreign standing and the FARC (not to mention Ecuador). Now, if the U.S. and Colombia sign military agreements, what has he to say about it that will not sound hypocritical? Thu, 30 Jul 2009 19:20:43 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/07/bazooka-hugo.html#IDComment28890179 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/07/coming-out-farc.html#IDComment28753977 Precisely. Chavez govt. had every reason to try to reassure both Colombians and Swedes that it was not their doing. They had options. Doubt on the Colombian side over the explanation could even be counterproductive. How would they doubt the good faith of the Venezuelan govt. in their regard? Keep a straight face saying that again... And chose to show that they would not (or maybe could not) explain anything to anybody, not even the Swedes. Even to show that the Colombians were lying to the world and that the Swedes had fallen for the lie. They chose to show that they had no answer. Well, then, let's in principle believe the guys with at least an argument and substantive evidence to show, if it's unchallenged. Wed, 29 Jul 2009 19:32:52 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/07/coming-out-farc.html#IDComment28753977 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/07/coming-out-farc.html#IDComment28668333 John, There are dozens of ways the chavista govt. could have handled this. They could have shown surprise, and told everyone that they didn't know, that must have been some corrupt officer (hey! maybe it's the same closet escualido that supplied the same weapon to the incredibly clumsy, but never caught, would-be shooters of Chavez's plane), and maybe even begin an "investigation". Then find and throw the aforementioned convenient scapegoat to the lions, and go on business as usual, apologies included for this terrible event that will surely never ever ever repeat itself, because Venezuela changed forever for the good of all and the Revolution is now making sure that the public servants and the military serve the Venezuelan people professionally and honestly... Can they keep an straight face saying THAT? Well, a good diplomat can. But Maduro is surely no Chaderton, or a tenth thereof. Well, maybe that would satisfy the Swedish, if you can make them ignore Reyes at the Asamblea Nacional and all that stuff that Interpol certified was on Reyes's computer. The furious denials and counter-accusations, their retiring diplomatic representatives damn the chavistas more than anything else and show them for complete fools. This is the worst possible, the most undiplomatic reaction... that shows they were caught red handed in something they cannot explain, and have not even the presence of mind to produce a cover story that is even remotely credible if the audience suspends every shred of disbelief. Wed, 29 Jul 2009 02:15:06 +0000 http://www.caracaschronicles.com/2009/07/coming-out-farc.html#IDComment28668333