en-us https://www.intensedebate.com/users/733021 Comments by Lee Perrault http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/02/controlling-babip-and-hrfb.html#IDComment128707794 MDS, You say Cain, Lilly, and Guthrie are inducing weak contact. Can you tell me what mechanically they do different to cause this? We know pitchers with high groundball rates increase the chance of generating groundballs through downward movement and location. How do these other 3 pitchers(all with very pedestrian groundball rates) increase the chance of generating weak contact in the air? Fri, 18 Feb 2011 01:49:33 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/02/controlling-babip-and-hrfb.html#IDComment128707794 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/reader-email-auction-keepers.html#IDComment124396752 Absolutely. Lots of manager are going to think price is a $25 player. Might as well use that leverage. Fri, 28 Jan 2011 19:49:26 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/reader-email-auction-keepers.html#IDComment124396752 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/reader-email-more-keeper-questions.html#IDComment124170260 (grrr it ate my original comment) So here's my reasoning for using normal, seasonal ADP. It's not to tell you when to draft a player, but whether or not a player on your roster should be redraftable if you let him back in. Snider's coming in at 200+ right now, so I highly doubt if Billy tosses him back in that he'll suddenly get snapped up within the first 50-80 picks. I'd rather take that chance letting him go, and having that early pick in Round 7 to possibly snipe a guy like Grady or Brett Anderson--injury risks that probably got thrown back. ADP serves one great purpose: it really is the consensus of over half of your league's perception of a player. I think you can easily apply that to any format. As for using the picks on these younger dynasty players? I agree you absolutely have to consider it. However, I think you need to reserve that for younger players that have unquestionable potential. 6-10 keepers still has a good amount of turnover, so I don't think you need to horde "margainal" fantasy prospects. If Billy was sitting on Moustakas, Carlos Santana, Daniel Hudson, Desmond Jennings, or Jeremy Hellickson, I would have easily named any of those players as guys for him to lock up. With no real penalty for "contract length" in this league, there's no reason not to. I just don't see Max or Snider having that real impact potential. Scherzer (even though he's a SABR supporter so i love him) doesn't really seem to have much of a ceiling outside of a low end #2. Snider had a bunch of what if potential, and hasn't really shown that much yet. Both of these gusy are re-draftable, Scherzer much less. He'll probably go within the first 20-30 picks, but even if Billy saves himself one round, that's not bad. Even better, he might be able to snag a similar pitcher who's an upgrade over the long term. I'm pretty confident Brett Anderson will be available. I would definitely take the risk to swap them. I'm afraid to go all in on Snider, so I couldn't pull the trigger on that. I do think reconsidering Strasburg is something I'd have to look at again. He fits that "dynasty" type player you can wait on, even though at best you might get 8 starts out of him this year. if you have a similar format, and you have a young player you really like who's ADP may not sync up, there's no harm keeping him For the few margainal guys I looked at though, I didn't see that potential sitting there. As for his team contending.. I really try not to look at a team and say you HAVE to commit to a rebuilding period pre-draft. Every team can get destroyed (or helped) by fluky injuries during the year. One thing Billy shoudl make sure he does is have some chips to toss around early if he doesn't end up having the star power to keep going. I want to make sure I still put him in the best chance to succeed right now. Some shrewd early draft picks can give him that edge, or can end up being trade bait later on. If his team does fade, I'd would immediately start shopping David Wright. Thu, 27 Jan 2011 19:51:25 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/reader-email-more-keeper-questions.html#IDComment124170260 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/napelite-take-2.html#IDComment123900509 I wouldn't be surprised if Texas gives him DH and 1B at bats, similar to how the Tigers use Victor. That is the biggest hurdle, and I hadn't mentioned it, so I'm glad you did. That's one of the big risks to jumping on this bandwagon. Wed, 26 Jan 2011 14:43:28 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/napelite-take-2.html#IDComment123900509 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/napelite-take-2.html#IDComment123738611 Matt, His 23.5% HR/FB rate was exceptionally and probably pie in the sky crazy in 2008, but his 2010 was actually an improvement from 2009 jumping from 16.5% to 19.3%, with only a negligible amount of less fly balls. While his walk rate has slowly dropped, his strikeouts seem to be more predictable, and his line drive percentage has continued to improve. There's nothing about Napoli that screams "Time to Sell". Don't forget his drop in OBP was also greatly affected by his 50 point drop in BABIP. That .238 average looks more like an outlier than a trend. Regardless of my feelings towards Napoli and the $86M waste in Vernon Wells, here's why I give the Angels so much grief: Jeff Mathis is absolute garbage at the plate. Unless he's the reincarnation of Ozzie Smith at Catcher (and he's not) there was no reason for them to pin their hopes an dreams on have when they have a possible budding talent at catcher. Mathis is getting the shot because that's Scoscia's type of player, not the burly BB/K/HR guy. I've always been a Napoli believer. I really hope he gets a chance to really show off in Texas and doesn't somehow get locked in any bit of a playing time share with Torrealba. Tue, 25 Jan 2011 21:43:37 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/napelite-take-2.html#IDComment123738611 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/adrian-gonzalez-should-be-consensus.html#IDComment123522998 Ballsy, Aaron. I have Adrian as the next 1B to take after Pujols, and the "Away Stat" argument is what I'm going all in on as well. I'm excited to see what a full year away from PETCO can do for a hitter who is unquestionably beefy on the road. Add in 81 games in Fenway, and I can easily understand the lofty possibilities. My stance on Adrian is if I'm picking 3rd or later and he slips to me, I'll take that gamble. This isn't a gamble like CarGo where you hope last year's numbers won't regress (even though they should) to a late 2nd early 3rd value. This isn't taking Cabrera and knowing exactly what you'd get with his past 3 consistent seasons. I'm willing to risk getting another 2010 out of Adrian for a shot of unquestionable greatness. i think that gamble is easily worth picking him 2-5 picks too early than he should (I think his ADP right now is 8). Mon, 24 Jan 2011 21:50:16 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/adrian-gonzalez-should-be-consensus.html#IDComment123522998 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/position-rankings-first-base.html#IDComment123019799 I normally don't get worried about a hitter switching leagues, regardless of direction. First, we have the argument that he's facing new, unfamiliar pitchers. I think this argument goes in both directions. The pitchers have never seen him, and scouting reports on what/where/how to pitch to him are lacking. While the National League, as a whole, has a more favorable league-wide performance than the AL (check the xFIPs over the course of the 2010 season for all teams, the NL clearly looks better), they also are facing 1 less "real" hitter per game. Even doing a quick sort by xFIP for all players, I see this for 2010: 1. R. Hallday 2. F. Liriano 3. A. Wainwright 4. J. Johnson 5. T. Lincecum 6. C. Lee 7. F. Hernandez 8. J. Lester 9. Latos 10. Gallardo If not for Cliff Lee switching leagues, that'd only a 6/4 advantage on the top 10. If you instead take the average from 2008-2010, it's a 5/5 split, even with Cliff Lee switching leagues. Now, I'd have to do a much more in-depth study on this, but honestly I think what's more important for evaluating Gonzo's potential is going to be how 81 games in Fenway, and 9 games in LHB homer-happy Yankee stadium affects Adrian's output. As for NL West vs AL East pitchers, that may be something to look into. Sat, 22 Jan 2011 18:07:14 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/position-rankings-first-base.html#IDComment123019799 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/reader-email-5-golden-keepers.html#IDComment121190618 That's good. Even more incentive to load up on offense early. Fri, 14 Jan 2011 00:55:41 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/reader-email-5-golden-keepers.html#IDComment121190618 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/position-rankings-shortstop.html#IDComment121159522 Kevin, O/U on steals for Castro? Does he have 35+ in him? Thu, 13 Jan 2011 21:57:24 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/position-rankings-shortstop.html#IDComment121159522 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/reader-email-5-golden-keepers.html#IDComment121150339 Dennis, While you're correct that Rios doesn't have many current comparables for us to draw a good conclusion from, I think his retention cost (7th) is an extremely high price to pay. In a keeper format like this, I shy away from most single-digit rounds unless these are truly elite or safe plays. That's why i barely considered him. If Chris said he could keep, say, Robbie Cano at a 7, I'd recommend him(If Cano was say, maybe a 4 or a 5 though, I would consider looking elsewhere). To me, formats like this usually benefit from trying to squeeze whatever I can out of those draft spots. So, onto Prado. I don't disagree at all with your analysis of Prado's abilities. He's definitely the low end of a top 10 guy. My grade (while harsh, and maybe I should have explained my rationale a little more clearly) is more based on this "what return can I get for this guy" idea. Here's how I picture it. Let's say Chris holds onto Prado instead of Hudson. He's now sitting on Ubaldo, who we expect to regress, and Morrow, who should be a bounce back candidate. However, he's lacking one detail that made me think he's more suited to hold onto pitching: He's not holding a truly elite bat. Formats like this usually let you sneak an elite bat in at a very reasonable price(I, for example, have Carlos Gonzales for 2011 as a 16th rounder in my local league). While I consider Santana "elite" at C, he's not elite in a vacuum, and I bet lots of top offensive players are being retained. I can picture Chris' offense starting off much further behind the pack than his competition. As I mentioned earlier, if he 100% has a shot at Hanley Ramirez(or Tulo), I think the Prado selection is ok. This basically locks up C, 2B, and SS with two elite players. He then can punt MI and just pour his entire draft budget into as much power overload as he can. But in general, based off ADPs from last year, 2B really didn't have many sleepers(in the terms of people really cheating ADP). The elite players went at expected values, and I doubt any of them will be retained. Even if Dan Uggla got drafted 8th in Chris' league, a manager would be silly to retain him for a 5th, only one round above his ADP. By holding onto 3 solid pitchers, I honestly think Chris could completely ignore pitching for the majority of his first 10 rounds, and be able to recoup the offense he's lacking since there are definitely going to be teams with bombs like CarGo in later rounds. If he keeps Prado, he's probably drafting at least two pitchers by round 7. I'd much rather just draft maybe one elite pitcher early, and then overload my offense after. Early ADP, tome, looks like lots of value with offense rounds 3-7, and a ton of pitching value in rounds 7-12. Prado is a C to me because I'd rather try and draft a much more productive 2B bat in Rounds 2-5 (Utley/Cano through Uggla), then hold onto Prado and roll the dice with those Round 4-5 pitchers. Anyway, that's my reasoning behind it. Maybe I shouldn't have shied away form the more detailed explanation. Hopefully you didn't mistake my reluctance to retain Prado as a knock on his abiltiies. I just think with a keeper selection, I want more than 15/5 in an optimistic year. In that case, I'll side with the upcoming pitcher and overload my bats in the draft. Thanks for writing, Dennis! Thu, 13 Jan 2011 21:25:56 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/reader-email-5-golden-keepers.html#IDComment121150339 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/mock-draft-fantasy-phenoms.html#IDComment121067934 And after a couple unlucky ERA years (those HRs have to stop), he's definitely a good low buy. Thu, 13 Jan 2011 15:57:06 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/mock-draft-fantasy-phenoms.html#IDComment121067934 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/mock-draft-fantasy-phenoms.html#IDComment121062690 Best Picks: Round 5 and 6 I'm surprised Lester continues to fall, and really like the value of Werth. I think he's getting a lot of flak for the move to Washington and his contract. While I am concerned his HR/FB% has dropped 3 straight years, an optimistic 30/100 in the end of Round 6 is nothing to complain about. Some picks from the draft I liked: Brett Anderson R10 P12: I still have a huge man crush on him, and his durability last year, while unfortunate, seemed a bit fluky. I'm pretty high on him. Brandon Morrow R15 P6. Wow. Ian Stewart R13 P4. 20 HRs in the 13th round at 3B (and 2B in some leagues?) Thu, 13 Jan 2011 15:25:16 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/mock-draft-fantasy-phenoms.html#IDComment121062690 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/reader-email-5-golden-keepers.html#IDComment120912226 Chris, Like I said earlier, its a similar system we use (we cap the free agent/undrafted at 16). How do you handle multiple picks in Round 22? Does everyone just go up a spot? I didn't touch on Rios because in a keeper system like this, I really shy away from keepers in the top 8 rounds unless they are Top 25 talent. While Rios could be a decent selection, I don't like wasting that 7th round pick, since the return isn't as drastic as you might get with Morrow or Hudson. Wed, 12 Jan 2011 17:34:52 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/reader-email-5-golden-keepers.html#IDComment120912226 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/garza-to-cubs-yay-or-nay.html#IDComment120052407 Concerning his BABIP, what's the Cubbie defense like? I'm pretty sure it's a significant step back from the Rays. Fri, 7 Jan 2011 17:47:41 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/garza-to-cubs-yay-or-nay.html#IDComment120052407 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/position-rankings-catcher.html#IDComment120032520 Boston. Please. KTHX. Fri, 7 Jan 2011 15:30:03 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/position-rankings-catcher.html#IDComment120032520 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/position-rankings-catcher.html#IDComment120029031 Disclaimer: I'm fully aware I'm asking a spurious and dopey question, but I really have a hard time with this: I still have trouble coming to grips with the idea that spending time at DH is detrimental to your overall offensive production. Why is the contrary not true? Is it safe to assume if David Ortiz played 1B every game his offense would somehow then improve? /my brain Anyway, the point I'm making, one reason I think I tend to value Victor (I'd probably have him #3 overall at C) is that those extra 25-30 games he'll be batting in (100 ABs) is HUGE for fantasy baseball purposes. Those extra 100 ABs could be the extra counting stats that put you over the top. Fri, 7 Jan 2011 15:01:21 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/position-rankings-catcher.html#IDComment120029031 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/position-rankings-second-base.html#IDComment119861516 Kevin, Surprising to you, but now expected, to finally see Kinsler fall out of "Elite" status? The Kelly Johnson inclusion in Tier One is definitely going to make me do my due diligence on him this year. I'm not so sure I can honestly see myself right now selecting him over Kinsler, and maybe some of the other T2 selections. Thu, 6 Jan 2011 17:07:09 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2011/01/position-rankings-second-base.html#IDComment119861516 http://www.rotosavants.com/2010/08/wandy-is-dandy.html#IDComment92533242 Two other excellent pitching performances yesterday, Grienke and Hanson, unfortunately wasted by their teammates. Thu, 12 Aug 2010 14:00:35 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2010/08/wandy-is-dandy.html#IDComment92533242 http://www.rotosavants.com/2010/08/what-hellickson-took-so-long.html#IDComment92183362 As for those 4 disappointments we talked about last night, I'm thinking power is only really been a problem for two of them. Aaron Hill's BABIP is still under .200 (at .199 this morning) and his line drive rate has almost been cut in half (10.2% vs 19.6%). At the very least, owners have got 18 homers out of him.. pretty great at second base. Reynolds is similarly struggling, dropping his LD% again and enduring a 50 point drop in BABIP. I'd be less concered about these two players, whose 2010s seem to be mostly full of those seekers Crash Davis could get enough of in Bull Durham. I have no idea what happened to Sandoval's power, though. Maybe it's a fluke, maybe it's In-N-Out. Wed, 11 Aug 2010 12:19:09 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2010/08/what-hellickson-took-so-long.html#IDComment92183362 http://www.rotosavants.com/2010/08/give-me-morrow-of-that.html#IDComment91882676 I'm taking a "Gift horse in the mouth" approach to CarGo right now. That walk rate could be better, but he's also not Ellsbury's profile and only doing this over 100 ABs. Still probably one of the most valuable keeper selections right now for players in a weighted system. Tue, 10 Aug 2010 04:04:18 +0000 http://www.rotosavants.com/2010/08/give-me-morrow-of-that.html#IDComment91882676