lankester2

lankester2

83p

823 comments posted · 3 followers · following 0

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Garvan Walshe: We can ... · 0 replies · +1 points

Most of the content of this article has been clear for a long time but I still react with dismay to posters who think the Govt. will ramp down the hysteria level now. New variants with hotel quarantine is the new way to destroy the economy, tax base and public services-including health. Given that the 'vaccines' are medicines rather than true vaccines which give immunity, the destructive NPI's will be with us in some form for a long time-including putting masks on children, which apart from being useless constitutes abuse. The modellers continue to give implausible results, such as a huge spike in Summer when the virus is clearly seasonal (and we now know the crowded beaches had no effect). If this can continue to happen even with more and more data, plus the innoculations, then it shows there is something seriously wrong at SAGE, in Govt. and in the whole approach to reason and making rational decisions. The Government's fear campaign has destroyed this.

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The mass testing 'blit... · 0 replies · +1 points

We have already wasted billions on mass testing which has proved useless and has misled SAGE and ministers in the past. So again they double down on a failed policy rather than learning a lesson from it. It is disheartening to see the same mistake again & again.

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Ryan Bourne: The lifti... · 0 replies · +1 points

Models are subject to what is entered into them. This is understood by everyone who uses them, in many disparate disciplines. It is the refusal to accept external criticism and check against the evidence which is worrying. It is a tragic irony that the Imperial College modelling team's homepage begins by acknowledging the power of confirmation bias and how we always need to look for 'black swans.' But their modelling contained-and still contains, no effect of seasonality. This was noticed by a Maths undergraduate. So they predicted a massive spike in Summer when actually the virus was seasonally dormant. There was no virus then because of the season-a Winter spike was predictable but because SAGE now favours suppression the Govt. relied on ineffective T & T and then equally useless lockdown. So the fear that loosening too quickly, Eat out, or Xmas affect the progress of the virus is misplaced. It has its own trajectory. By concentrating on the model (GIGO forgotten) the evidence that NPI's don't work once the virus is endemic has been overlooked. The slow reduction of measures when the virus is diminishing on its own accord is tackling a mirage, with damaging results. Human reliance on modelling has been catastrophic.

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The relaxation of lock... · 0 replies · +1 points

If the 'vaccine' does not prevent transmission, a passport's effectiveness would be undermined. But if the jab reduces symptoms to nothing/next to nothing, then the person who has had it but has the virus would in effect be 'asymptomatic.' We all know that a third of cases are asymptomatic and are the main cause of infection, don't we?

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The relaxation of lock... · 1 reply · +1 points

A Maths. undergraduate has spotted that the Ferguson Imperial model takes no account of seasonality. It assumes equal prevalence of the virus all year round. So it predicted a Summer peak without tiers & other measures. But an endemic and seasonal virus is dormant in Summer, so all the methods emplyed then were useless and damaging for nothing. It's a fatal flaw in more ways than one. A naturally occurring Winter spike was not properly prepared for because of reliance on Test & Trace, in turn based on the mistaken belief promoted by Ferguson that the virus can be suppressed. A 21 year old has seen the flaw, but the flawed Ferguson continues to be at the centre of policy. Study after study shows NPI's to be ineffective once the virus is endemic. [But double masking nonsense is now being promoted]. The Flaxman et al. (also Imperial College modelling team) which claims 3 million European lives saved engages in circular reasoning and its conclusion results from the information programmed into it. It can reach no other conclusion because no other possibility is catered for. This is the standard of bias confirmation and groupthink we have all been following for a year. When a student shows the modeller has no clothes, isn't it time to get rid of him and the rest of this discredited crew?

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Drakeford attac... · 0 replies · +1 points

Drakeford is getting his excuses in first. But he's not as bad as Owen Jones (and that's saying something).

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Raab - 'We are ... · 3 replies · +1 points

The evidence shows that they should never have been closed. The harm caused has been massive and will be seen in future educational failure. Masking children is a form of abuse. In future years we will look back on this and conclude we were mad and we will excoriate our leaders and consign the Teacher Unions to the depths of the inferno.

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Conservative MPs on wh... · 1 reply · +1 points

No NPI's work. In the northern hemisphere once the virus is endemic, the trajectory is the same as where lockdown and other NPI's are in place or done lightly. Where there is a lag, the country/state with lockdown 'catches up' unfortunately. The empirical evidence from Jutland, USA, Sweden etc demonstrates this. The models are wrong because they excude seasonality and involve circular reasoning-GIGO. Relying on Ferguson and Imperial, who should have been discredited, has been a catastrophic mistake.

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Iain Dale: Why would a... · 0 replies · +1 points

I've got a long list of places I want to visit before I die, even if I only make it to number 1!

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Iain Dale: Why would a... · 0 replies · +1 points

An odd comment on the jab by Ian Dale. We expect to take innoculations to go to 'exotic' destinations but we also expect immunity. As far as I understand no claim is made that these 'vaccines' defintely convey immunity. In effect they are a useful medication, esp. for the elderly and particularly vulnerable. But unless they prevent transmission mass immunisation has diminishing returns.