gdp's Comments

Tech Cocktail : DC Ain't Silicon Valley - 3 Much Needed Tech Growth Initiatives

Fri, 4 Mar 2011 03:31:49 +0000

Glen, First, I'd like to thank you for saying this. I'm a "DC native" in that I grew up in this area, attended Howard University and have been here most of my life. I've also spent some time in California, including 2 years working for a startup in Irvine, CA. While its not quite Silicon Valley, between working for Bay Area companies, visiting the area and my startup experience, I'm SO glad I was able to move back to this region. While I sometimes long for the good things of California and the Bay Area in particular, I think about how much better the quality of life is here. Similar incomes levels (on average), lower tax rates and costs in general (e.g. 6x less to register your car in MD or the lowest sales tax rate in CA is about 7.5% [and yes, there are multiple sales tax rates], never mind higher insurance rates, etc.), and the seat of US government, so we'll always be "taken care of" on some level. CA can't say THAT. I agree, Glen, that more time should be spent by the 3 jurisdictions working together. Also, I think we need more entrepreneurs who tell their stories, get out and be seen, mentor (formally such as Founders Institute and informally), investing (as angels or part of funds), and recycling back into the local scene. I've mentioned to Peter Corbett and others that I think its entirely too easy for people to choose Beltway Bandits over doing a startup or working for one. Its like Ramit Sethi has said - it only takes $5000 to take people's startup dreams and CRUSH them underfoot. Anyway, you're spot on. I think there are some other things that need to happen, but these steps would be extremely useful and helpful. Thanks for writing this! Claude Johnson

Union Station : 10 Years of Virtual Machine Performance (Semi) Demystified

Wed, 7 Oct 2009 04:37:25 +0000

Ugh. Ok, it looks like Bochs is a x86 simulator (technically) which explains why I was able to consider running it on Ultrix.

Union Station : 10 Years of Virtual Machine Performance (Semi) Demystified

Wed, 7 Oct 2009 04:32:05 +0000

Where does Bochs fit into this conversation? I ran into Bochs long before I ever heard of VMware (and probably before VMware was a company, since this was the mid - late 90s, maybe around the time of the Disco project). http://bochs.sourceforge.net/

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Teens Don't Tweet. But Who Cares What Kids Think.

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 04:04:48 +0000

How do you figure it's "right"? How do you define "right"? Maybe it's "right" if you're a 15 year old in London? Otherwise, it's largely irrelevant and incorrect. For once, Money Magazine makes the point well. http://moneyfeatures.blogs.money.cnn.com/2009/07/... And Robson's economics still make no sense, and your "because it's right" comment doesn't add any value either.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Teens Don't Tweet. But Who Cares What Kids Think.

Thu, 16 Jul 2009 08:25:52 +0000

The whole report is stupid. First, he's a kid. He has no concept of the real world, as several commentators have noted. Second, he's just incorrect about Twitter. Maybe UK teens don't use it, but couldn't that have something to do with their lack of understanding of economics? I mean, the sender pays in Europe, right? So if I send 1 text message to Twitter, and it re-sends 20 to my followers, doesn't that reduce my cost instead of sending a message directly to 20 followers? Maybe I'm short on understanding of the UK SMS billing policies, but that is my understanding. Twitter has more to fear w.r.t. costs than teens do. And since when do teens have anything worth reading by the majority of people? Outside of your own circle of friends and family, I doubt many teens will be tweeting anything of interest. So do we actually care that teens - anywhere - are not using it? (Wait, there is one place we do care. Iran.) Third, everything else in the report was obvious. So yes, just another indication of how out of touch these marketers, investment professionals, others who responded to the report really are. Can we come back to this in 5 - 10 years when these kids actually have their own money? I don't get why such an un-novel report of anecdotes from an inexperienced youth generated so much interest.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Sunday Drive-By/Grassroots Economics

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 09:31:06 +0000

Forgot to mention: Received flyer from a ASE certified mechanic who lives in my complex. He's actively looking for customers. Haven't spoken directly too him though. I will continue going to the dealer for now. Apartment complex was offering discounts on 15 month lease if renewed by 31 March. My lease doesn't expire until August (IIRC).

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Sunday Drive-By/Grassroots Economics

Sun, 12 Apr 2009 18:27:58 +0000

Posted on the last thread re: observations from Baltimore, and ID lost it. :( Got an offer from The Palazzo in Vegas for up to 3 complimentary nights & $250 in gaming credits. Stayed at The Venetian a few years back. Thinking seriously of taking them up on the offer. A few weeks ago, noticed what, by my estimate, must be at least 500,000 sq ft of new CRE under construction in DC. Maybe as much as 750K. Still seeing new townhouses and SFHs popping up in various areas around DC metro. Downtown Silver Spring seeing an apartment construction boom. Hasn't forced down rents on the high end though. The Veridian and Portico, new buildings, still obscenely high for 1 BR ($1500 - $1900 approximately). At least 3 other buildings under construction in the area, maybe 4. Praying for falling rents in new buildings so I can move back to that area. Still seeing local birddog trying to move a multi-unit property in Baltimore after several months. May be sold by now, but as of last Sunday it wasn't AFAIK. Monday morning traffic heading toward DC is fairly light crossing over I-95 @ MD 212 on my way home. By Wed, that same stretch is a parking lot. At $4.00 gas, the traffic died down considerably. Seeing Ford Excursions, Lincoln Navigators, Hummer H2s and Mercedes CL 500s (low end) come out of hibernation. CL is most expensive regular production car to insure, according to my insurance company. Saw tons of them during credit boom, in all sorts of conditions (usually bad). Consistently saw the low end model, not the CL 600 which is more expensive and even pricier to insure, bigger engine, etc. So with the CL 500s coming out in force, it seems that people are comfortable showing off a little wealth still AND now they can afford to put gas in the car.

Girls Just Wanna Have Funds : Relocating And It Feels So Good!

Tue, 3 Mar 2009 08:32:46 +0000

Heh. I grew up in your county. You might want more funds available for the rental emergency fund. I say that because I have a co-worker who did the same (he upgraded to a much larger home and rented out the old one) and his old house (the current rental) was vacant for something like 8 months. This was only 2 years ago, so for most of 2007 the house was empty and he was paying 2 mortgages. Needless to say, this is severely negatively impacted his family finances. You might want a year or better available, since not only might you have the carrying costs and property taxes but also maintenance costs. Also consider that you may not get the kind of tenant you'd like. My co-worker has a Section 8 tenant, and not only is that less desirable (yes, I said it!), but Section 8 may not cover the full note. He's losing $120 (approx.) monthly renting out his house. Mind you, the note on that house is only like $150K - max! I don't know what your note is and what kind of property (townhouse vs. SFH) but if you're guaranteed to lose $200 per month - $2400 annually - on top of carrying maintenance, property taxes, and you have the risk of an empty property for extended periods of time, that rental property emergency fund sounds a bit shallow. Speaking as a landlord through a partnership (LLC) that I have been unwinding for the last year, what about management. If you're going to be living in NoVA, do you want to have to travel to your current city to management the property? I doubt it. Remember, for a single property, a management company will likely charge 8% - 10% of the monthly rent, and the 8% is the "we got lucky!" figure. That monthly rate is in addition to the likely upfront cost of 1 month's rent for placing a tenant (if they happen to do so). Seriously consider whether you want to try to save that management fee by doing it yourself; property management sucks unless you're a FT investor. You're already busy, and your spouse is as well IIRC, so SERIOUSLY think about this. All of these things (and a few others) have impacted my decision to get out of the partnership I mentioned. Honestly, if you can sell that house, you might be better off to do so. My top of the head calculation says this is a losing proposition.

Girls Just Wanna Have Funds : Repost: Smart Women Marry for Money, and Here’s Why

Thu, 19 Feb 2009 11:26:16 +0000

And as long as they bring to the table the same things they request and require in a man, then God bless 'em!

Girls Just Wanna Have Funds : 10 Unpopular Opinions About Personal Finance

Thu, 19 Feb 2009 11:20:16 +0000

Ashe: It makes sense. Those private loans are killers. I could talk about the impact of lending on college tuition but that's a different conversation. I hope you at least used that money to find a career path with real earning potential. As for being mandatory to upgrade properties...why? It's a free country. That's why we choose to live here. The landlord can do what they want, and for most, that kind of decision is purely economic. (Speaking as a landlord. You put as little into maintaining the property as you reasonably can.) If you don't like it where you live (for these reasons), can you move? Where do you live? I would recommend considering it. In this environment, it should be a lot easier to find lower cost rentals than a few years ago. (I for one plan to move back closer to the city - DC - and I fully expect to cut a deal on rent because of the rental property boom of a few years ago.) I guess it sounds to me that you're not taking responsibility for the fact that you took out those loans (for 2 levels of education) and you chose your current living situation. Maybe a better plan would have been to work for a few years before returning to grad school? (Presuming you went direct to grad school.) I don't know. I don't have enough information to make an informed comment, but taking on student loans requires cost/benefit analysis, calculation of payback periods, and other good analysis, given that it is a financial decision. Now that you're in the situation you're in, maybe the best escape is to go through. If you've cut the expenses to the bone, get creative and find a way to increase your income. It is totally doable, even in this economy. I didn't say easy, mind you, but I did say doable. Oh, Gingerlatte, here's a caveat to #2: there is approximately 30% of the American population that pays no Federal income tax, for various reasons. That means, by how you worded #2, they would not be subject to receiving relief for student loan or mortgage debt. (And as an aside, it should again illustrate why the US needs to cultivate and coddle the rich, as, in dollar terms, they pay more of the taxes than anyone else. Don't give the people who carry the tax burden a reason to take their money elsewhere. Especially when there is infrastructure to rebuild, among other things.) Cheers!

Girls Just Wanna Have Funds : 10 Unpopular Opinions About Personal Finance

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 06:29:14 +0000

1. Are they not? "Should be" is already there. Completely economic decision. 2. Not a good enough reason (being screwed with no lube). So what? Where is it decreed by God that life is fair? That said, what if, like me, you have no student loan debt and no mortgage debt? (Because even though you dropped out of college, you found ways to cover the cost w/o debt, and you were absurd enough to buy a house when the numbers made no economic sense?) 3. Agreed. 4. Again, there are income issues here, since not everyone makes enough to come close to maxing out a 401(k) e.g. that 75% of the $15,500 (thought it was $16,500 as of this year tho?). Better idea - remove all limits on retirement saving. The Roth and regular IRAs have arbitrary (and worse - LOW) limits on saving, as to the 401(k), SEP-IRA, Solo 401(k) and others. Remove the limits, or increase the limit to $100,000 per account. If you can save more, do so. Saving in a retirement account should also count as a credit against your Social Security contributions, up to the total of your SS contributions for the year. Social Security actually worked once, but once Congress realized they could dip into the trust fund, THAT'S where the problem came in. THAT should be ended too. 5. Agreed. 6. Going back to #2, uhhh, no. Again, who promised life being fair to anyone? Even better, if you make the choice then you accept the consequences (regarding college). Healthcare is a bit of a different topic, but I don't know that I'd call it a right. It should be accessible. 7. GTFO! 8. If you're willing to give me your money, I'm willing to take it. Speaking as someone who has spent the last 6 months helping a friend dig out of payday loan hell. (I like how he put it -- before he met his g/f he didn't know anything about a payday loan. If he didn't have it, he didn't have it!) 9. I've written immeasurably about clawbacks, high water marks, and other tools of the private equity world which shareholders and others in the capital structure of any company need to enforce on management. It really is an agent/principal problem. Read about it. Clawbacks and highwaters would address many of these issues. 10. I would agree with the last sentence only. Everything else is a business decision (not getting into right/wrong, I don't play that). Bad business decisions are business decisions too! And they are completely valid decisions. You make the decision, you accept the consequences. Thank God they screwed up all of these "rescues" and "bailouts" though! How else would I be able to go short the entire financial system and make money off Armageddon!?!?!?

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : South Korea Arrests Barry Ritholtz

Thu, 8 Jan 2009 22:50:10 +0000

They make him sound like the Unabomber. Sheesh!

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Satyajit Das and William Bernstein

Thu, 8 Jan 2009 00:50:42 +0000

Meh. They barely talked to Das. Bernstein got the majority of the airtime but there was nothing insightful there. Maybe I'm just jaded, but I was looking for some little nugget. I don't expect "Aha!" moments all the way through as I scribble notes frantically into my composition book, but still... Lets just say I'm glad I didn't pay for that. But hey, that's the risk right - that sometimes, the resources we find won't hold any gold in them. :s

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Readings: $1 Gas, Panic, Packaged Meat, etc.

Sun, 7 Dec 2008 18:36:01 +0000

I'd rather see saving limits increased on IRAs. Think I'll say more on this later. But if you want people to save, offer the proper incentives.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Questions for Auto Execs

Sun, 7 Dec 2008 18:33:07 +0000

Classic!

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Global Markets All Pointing to Deflation

Sat, 22 Nov 2008 17:39:56 +0000

I vote deleveraging/disinflation. If you figure we're cloes to $1T USD in losses worldwide, and my personal feeling is we're looking at $1.2T minimum, then I figure another $300B USD has to come out of the Fed before we start looking at a reflation scenario. Even then, given sentiment, I think the downdraft continues for at least another year. Maybe 2. As for the long term inflation outlook, its bad. Short term is disinflation or even deflation. Intermediate to long term is inflation. As risk aversion subsides, and the inflation phase picks up, Treasuries take it in the teeth. Along with the fact that our vendor financing slowly goes away. Its inevitable; the question just really is when.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Warren Buffett: Lost His Touch (Again)?

Wed, 12 Nov 2008 16:30:45 +0000

I can't agree with the first 2 posts. First, BenE's remarks make little sense to me. Being buy-and-hold should insulate Buffett on some level, at least given the types of stocks he likes. Yes, they are going to go down with everything else. However, he's not worried about the fluctuations. His comment the other week about his personal portfolio soon being 100% in US equities says to me that he IS being rational while others are emotional, and for the right reasons. (He's not a market timer, so claiming the timing is bad is pointless.) The logic of his decision is spot-on, if not the timing, and there are plenty of other well known value types in the same camp (Hussman, Grantham, et. al). Now, the derivatives trades should give pause. He's already blown up once to the tune of $300M and now he's looking at new losses. I'm not an options person, at least not to any great extent, however it occurred to me that Warren really isn't either. Just because he's smart with equities does not predispose him to being competent with equity options. I think people have assumed that he is just because he's Buffett. That's not an answer. Now, he continues to be in the best cash flow business around (insurance), which has allowed BRK investors to forgive these little mishaps. It is increasingly disturbing, however, that he's having them. If he keeps it up, it won't just be a 77% decline in net he reports. Will that be the quarterly earnings report that sees him leave his perch at BRK? I wouldn't be surprised, and realistically, I think he knows that should that happen, it is time for him to leave. I'm not saying he's lost his touch, yet, but he's wearing less and less clothing each time he goes out for a swim.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Quote of the Day: Paulson Plays Butch Cassidy

Fri, 24 Oct 2008 20:15:44 +0000

I'm curious to know what kind of speaking fees, as well as advisor and conslutting (not a typo) roles Paulson will be able to get after this crisis. The numbers boggle the mind.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : California Highways as Economic Indicator

Fri, 24 Oct 2008 19:49:34 +0000

The view from MD, in the DC metro area, seems bleaker. I used to live in Silver Spring, MD, thus requiring a drive on I-95 to I-495 - a short drive overall. I now live closer to the office, but I pass over I-95 on the way home. Anyway, I noticed during the summer that weekday morning traffic on I-95 south headed into DC would be disgustingly heavy, backed up to MD 212 or even beyond. Once regular unleaded reliably crossed over $3.00/gal, this came to a very quick end. Getting home, from MD 212 to Silver Spring via I-95/I-495 became a breeze. Since my budget was designed to withstand $7.00/gal regular unleaded w/o a hiccup, I didn't mind. I'll admit to being happy at the gas prices. In the last few days, however, I've noticed that the heavy traffic and backups to MD 212 on I-95 south have returned. Very disheartening. So while I like paying less for gas, that traffic situation would seem to even negate what little benefit there is to be had. Thankfully, I no longer live in Silver Spring, so I can stay on local roads to get home. The trend (everywhere?) may be down, but we're going to see things spike back up I think. Recency bias being what it is, these low(er) prices are going to stick in people's heads.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Links: France, Canada, Gun 'n' Roses, etc.

Fri, 24 Oct 2008 19:21:16 +0000

Not disagreeing or discounting any of that, but I just wanted to say that I'd like to see the SWF thing come to fruition. It would truly be a sight, a "takeunder" of corporate France. Nothing better for competition than your competitor's suicide. However, I do wonder...how long has it been since France was competitive with the US or UK anyway? </sarcasm>