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1 hour ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Johnson - 'I ho... · 1 reply · +1 points

Pillar 2 testing tends to capture milder cases. The timing on which it does so is not necessarily earlier or later than pillar 1, which should have been picking up key worker infections early for example.

Perhaps you should look at the charts I produced.

1 hour ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Johnson - 'I ho... · 1 reply · +1 points

The Scots and Welsh governments have not been making tests available to those who wish to be tested.

1 hour ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Angela Richardson: Rec... · 0 replies · +1 points

I used to go to the Yvonne Arnaud several times a year when I lived not too far away. But their programme became less enticing before I moved away. Perhaps success will depend on putting on shows that people enjoy, rather than indulging the politics of producers.

1 hour ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Natasha Hausdorff: Min... · 1 reply · +1 points

How appropriate that this article is written by a Hausdorff. She can tell us the Hausdorff dimension of the Sierpinski carpet that is the Swiss cheese of Israeli borders. At least that problem is soluble.

2 hours ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Johnson - 'I ho... · 3 replies · +1 points

I don't think that Scottish and Welsh testing is anywhere near adequate enough to establish the levels of infection. That's one of the reasons why they keep getting caught out with outbreaks such as those that have recently hit the news in North Wales.

2 hours ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Johnson - 'I ho... · 5 replies · +1 points

It has transpired that we were being given a very misleading picture of cases across the country in the PHE data published on its dashboard (and which I have turned into maps). The first indication was the publication of the official report:

It can clearly be seen that cases in Leicester have been dominated for some considerable time by Pillar 2 tests, and yet PHE persisted in publishing reasonably data and charts for Pillar 1 alone. So the maps I have been preparing have provided too optimistic a view, and an inadequate guide as to the extent of problems.

Publication of the Leicester report has it seems forced PHE’s hand, and so they finally published detailed data for the sum of Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 Thursday 2 July 2020 at 9:45pm. It is understandable that as Pillar 2 testing ramped up, it added an element of confusion if it was simply added to the data for Pillar 1, because the latter concentrates on testing in the medical environment – cases presenting at hospitals, key workers, etc. – while the former picked up milder cases and even asymptomatic ones among a much wider population. That can be seen both in the Leicester report, and in the data just published. I offer the following chart that shows the overall total reported cases for England under Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 separately and added together, with 7 day averages to extract the trends from the daily data:

I also offer a chart that records the 7 day moving average for each Local Authority, breaking down the overall total for Pillar 1+2. Best viewed on a computer, or in portrait mode on a large-ish tablet: mouseover the data stripes. The data can be downloaded via the “get the data” link for those who want to extract the detail for their local areas to give a more focussed presentation.

The Leicester outbreak is evident, as it is in this map of Pillar 1+2 case rates in the 7 days to 30th June:

which is not quite such good news more generally as the last map I produced based on the then available Pillar 1 data which you can compare here

22 hours ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Alan Mak: A new tech s... · 4 replies · +1 points

Indeed - subsidising green virtue signalling purchases by the already wealthy would be a tragic waste of money. It already has been, which is I think why the previous scheme has been wound down.

If you want to get clunkers off the road you should subsidise the purchase of second hand vehicles of less vintage in return for scrappage. Few people (?none) trade up from a clapped out 15-20 year old vehicle to a new one: they likely only make occasional but essential use.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: The Prime Minis... · 0 replies · +1 points

So now we learn that PHE have been economical with the actualité by not revealing details of Pillar 2 testing.

Not that they really know how to interpret it.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Darren Grimes: Why I'm... · 0 replies · +1 points

Other media do have a habit of reporting on the BBC's excesses. You don't have to watch or be a reader of its website to be made aware.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Darren Grimes: Why I'm... · 1 reply · +1 points

Panem et circenses.