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1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Garvan Walshe: We can ... · 0 replies · +1 points

Test and Trace will never control widespread community transmission. Anyone with even the most rudimentary understanding of epidemiology could see the flaw in that strategy. The most effective method is isolation for the symptomatic. I believe PHE figures assessed that would reduce 60% of transmission. The effect of T and T would be to reduce cases by another 10% under ideal conditions.

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Garvan Walshe: We can ... · 1 reply · +1 points

Yes, one doesn't know whether the 100% figure is used for artistic license or the contributor doesn't understand probability statistics.

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Garvan Walshe: We can ... · 0 replies · +1 points

This is drivel. Immunizing the vulnerable will not lift the disease burden on health care. Allowing high levels of circulating virus within the remaining population gives opportunity for more virulent strains to occur that then undermine the vaccine program.
The Imperial React study suggests that the present rapid fall in cases can't be attributed to the Vaccine rollout ...yet. It's worth adding that in Israel where a population level experiment is happening in real time the level of infection is falling in the over 65s but paradoxically rising in the yet to be vaccinated younger age group.

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The relaxation of lock... · 0 replies · +1 points

The goal is herd immunity. Until that is reached some form of restrictions will persist. If the Kent strain is now the dominant variant the proportion of the population needing immunity will also increase.
Even when Lockdown is lifted 'living with Covid' will entail public health surveillance to identify outbreaks and genomic analysis to modify vaccines.

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Bordering on impossible · 1 reply · +1 points

I think even on this August forum we've seen enough contributors claiming Covid is no more than seasonal influenza and all restrictions should be moot. I

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Bordering on impossible · 6 replies · +1 points

Yes, mRNA vaccines look like they might deliver sterilising immunity. Israel have also been dealing with outbreaks linked to B.1.1.7 variant.
I'm impressed that you still take time to engage with these sceptics, I've long since lost patience. It's a basic tenet that removing all restrictions while your susceptible population still exceed those recovered and immune means means further epidemics.

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Shifting health policy... · 0 replies · +1 points

There was nothing positive about the Lansley reforms. It seemed as if at a stroke another layer of useless management was inveigled into an already bloated system. More pertinent is why Cameron and Osborne ever thought it was a good idea?

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - David Gauke: The UK, t... · 0 replies · +1 points

There is no evidence those deaths were as a result of SARS-COV-2 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n149. There is no suggestion that the government is halting second doses.
The main role of this policy is to reduce Covid deaths and some forms of NPI interventions will have to remain till herd immunity levels at population level are achieved. That includes keeping borders closed to avoid importing variants from overseas reservoirs.

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - David Gauke: The UK, t... · 5 replies · +1 points

I'm afraid you've misunderstood the Science. PHE have adopted a population level intervention which is designed to first cut the number of deaths, then hospital admissions then eliminate the pandemic. The first dose primes the immune system. No one receiving the first dose in the trials died of Covid.
The issue of delay is specific to mRNA vaccines but they give such an alarming high antibody responses from the initial dose any drop over the interval may not affect outcomes. So believe it or not this strategy could actually work.

1 year ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Three cheers for Kate ... · 0 replies · +1 points

A lot of credit should be given to Hancock as well. He instigated the Investment Tech Hub that drove vaccine development. His insistence that Oxford signed agreements with a UK Pharma rather than off shoring supply was particularly prescient. Bear in mind AZ had no pedigree in vaccine development
What we need now is our own home grown MRNA vaccine roll out. imperial have repurposed their vaccine to specifically deal with new variants. Fingers crossed.