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2 days ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Luke Evans: My Coronav... · 0 replies · +1 points

I'm afraid PHE is another branch of the state in need of reform.

2 days ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Luke Evans: My Coronav... · 1 reply · +1 points

I suggest we wait. There is a lag time between cases and deaths. In states like Texas and Florida they eschewed wearing masks, social distancing and opened up their beaches, bars and restaurants. AFAIK Texas hospital bed occupancy for Covid is now in a much younger age group. The knockon is that ventilator time in ITU is being rationed to release capacity.

2 days ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Luke Evans: My Coronav... · 3 replies · +1 points

I'm afraid the approach you suggest has been tried. Have a look at the Southern States in the US and California. A rapid attempt at leaving lockdown has lead to a resurgence in cases. More disconcerting is that these cases are now in the 18-45 year age groups. Many requiring hospitalization.
An uncontrolled outbreak with large proportions of the population affected is not a means to a viable economy.

2 days ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Luke Evans: My Coronav... · 2 replies · +1 points

My thoughts on Leicester; firstly the Mayor showed a lack of understanding. More cases are not a direct response of more tests as one sees if one was taking a large population sample. PHE strategy is to test symptomatic cases so if incidence is increasing it's more cases. Bear in mind that present strategy is going to miss the asymptomatic cases. Waiting for their contacts to turn positive could mean waiting 6 weeks in lockdown for things to subside.
It really requires a change of strategy. In the region's with outbreaks it requires blanket testing of populations to identify cases quickly.
We can look into possible causes for this outbreak once we get further data from testing.

5 days ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Newslinks for Sunday 2... · 0 replies · +1 points

Blair's thinking is right. If one wants to reopen schools weekly testing of attendees is the way to go. It would mean HMG providing additional capacity for pooled PCR. Not inconceivable if the prevalence of Covid is below 1%.

6 days ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Don't rule out a secon... · 0 replies · +1 points

There was published research from the University of Sydney documenting that Covid transmission is facilitated by lower humidity and colder temperature. Combine that with close proximity and questionable hygiene practices and you have the full gamut.

6 days ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Johnson, Starmer - and... · 0 replies · +1 points

A more accurate indication of infection spread is the number of positive cases which is still trending down week on week.

1 week ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Johnson, Starmer - and... · 0 replies · +1 points

That image will go down "well" in Red Wall seats. Many of whom are socially conservative.

1 week ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Don't rule out a secon... · 1 reply · +1 points

Perhaps with your academic hat on you could pass judgement on the level of testing scientific rigour to which we have been subjected by our "experts."
My flabber was well and truly ghasted when I discovered that Neil Ferguson's modelling paper used faulty data on the R number and the Generation time to miscalculate the infection rate in the UK but SAGE were unwavering in their acceptance.
The low point was today when I heard a Professor of Epidemiology from the London School of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene state that the Government should be testing the whole UK population twice a week. As if any government could afford the cost of such an endeavour. The answer that seemed to escape him was pooled sample testing.
From my experience any infection an individual recovers confers an element of immunity so it would be quite an event if Covid was different.

1 week ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Don't rule out a secon... · 0 replies · +1 points

I fail to see how one could have achieved any control over the outbreak without a lockdown. The country didn't have the testing capacity or PPE to treat cases.
It's only now we know that asymptomatic healthcare staff were spreading the disease in Hospitals and care homes. Simply Isolating those units was unlikely to prevent spread.
Even with an IFR of 1% the case fatality rate of those cases requiring treatment is 1 in 20.
There's no doubt that SAGE performed badly miscalculating the epidemic doubling time by a magnitude of weeks so that by the time the UK locked down we were experiencing 100K cases a week.