en-us https://www.intensedebate.com/users/21721325 Comments by blessedmaggie https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/02/the-relaxation-of-lockdown-coming-soon-usual-terms-and-conditions-apply.html#IDComment1097587267 Emlyn, are you Kier Starmer in disguise? We can only be thankful a Steve Baker lead Conservative Party would indeed give Labour a 500 seat majority, as otherwise as PM he might declare war on the EU and China, while stopping all NHS treatment in order to reduce the national debt. Mon, 15 Feb 2021 21:34:56 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/02/the-relaxation-of-lockdown-coming-soon-usual-terms-and-conditions-apply.html#IDComment1097587267 https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/02/the-relaxation-of-lockdown-coming-soon-usual-terms-and-conditions-apply.html#IDComment1097586938 Steve Baker never stops banging on about WW2. Would he have argued blackout regulations were an infringement on everybody's personal freedom, and we should just have jollied off and partied, and accepted a few tens of thousand people would have been blown to bits by German bombs? What a clown. Mon, 15 Feb 2021 21:18:33 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/02/the-relaxation-of-lockdown-coming-soon-usual-terms-and-conditions-apply.html#IDComment1097586938 https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/02/the-relaxation-of-lockdown-coming-soon-usual-terms-and-conditions-apply.html#IDComment1097586856 This CRG are an embarrassment to the Conservative Party, and membership of it should be grounds for considering de-selection. If the choice had been between indefinite lockdown, and let the virus take its course, they would have had a point. But there was originally the option of putting in place an effective track trace isolate system, and now there are the various vaccines that may resolve the situation. Either they are too stupid to understand the maths and science of the situation, or they are self publicists and/or crude populists. Mon, 15 Feb 2021 21:14:01 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/02/the-relaxation-of-lockdown-coming-soon-usual-terms-and-conditions-apply.html#IDComment1097586856 https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/02/the-relaxation-of-lockdown-coming-soon-usual-terms-and-conditions-apply.html#IDComment1097586795 Call me Virgil is bang on the money with this comment. The CRG should hang their heads in shame, it is their stupidity that has led to us having amongst the worst death tolls in the world Mon, 15 Feb 2021 21:10:05 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/02/the-relaxation-of-lockdown-coming-soon-usual-terms-and-conditions-apply.html#IDComment1097586795 https://www.conservativehome.com/sponsored/2021/02/rama-thirunamachandran-modern-universities-and-their-graduates-are-a-necessity-not-a-luxury-in-a-post-covid-britain.html#IDComment1097241493 The slowdown in economic growth and stagnation in productivity in this country coincides with expansion of university education. This is the exact opposite of what was supposed to happen. Correlation does not prove causality, of course. But it is al least plausible that taking people who might otherwise have learned skills directly related to employment, such as building and construction trades, book keeping and accountancy skills etc. and instead cause them to study subjects that do not directly provide any skills or knowledge that is useful in the jobs market could indeed reduce productivity. Similarly, it is difficult to understand why it was ever thought vastly increasing the number of people studying history, English, social studies etc would increase economic output. Wed, 3 Feb 2021 14:03:30 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/sponsored/2021/02/rama-thirunamachandran-modern-universities-and-their-graduates-are-a-necessity-not-a-luxury-in-a-post-covid-britain.html#IDComment1097241493 https://www.conservativehome.com/sponsored/2021/02/rama-thirunamachandran-modern-universities-and-their-graduates-are-a-necessity-not-a-luxury-in-a-post-covid-britain.html#IDComment1097241267 agreed Wed, 3 Feb 2021 13:53:06 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/sponsored/2021/02/rama-thirunamachandran-modern-universities-and-their-graduates-are-a-necessity-not-a-luxury-in-a-post-covid-britain.html#IDComment1097241267 https://www.conservativehome.com/sponsored/2021/02/rama-thirunamachandran-modern-universities-and-their-graduates-are-a-necessity-not-a-luxury-in-a-post-covid-britain.html#IDComment1097241265 Although I broadly agree with you, I'm not sure why you think maths courses should escape the axe. Surely there are not many employment opportunities where what is learned on a university maths course is of any value? Wed, 3 Feb 2021 13:52:38 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/sponsored/2021/02/rama-thirunamachandran-modern-universities-and-their-graduates-are-a-necessity-not-a-luxury-in-a-post-covid-britain.html#IDComment1097241265 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2021/01/robert-halfon-im-not-a-lockdown-sceptic-but-i-am-a-school-down-sceptic-and-fear-the-impact-of-these-closures.html#IDComment1097077601 Does anyone remember a TV program from the 1960's 'Skippy, The Bush Kangaroo'? It was about a kid in the outback of Australia who was home schooled over a two way radio, rather than a lap top. The kid did not seem to suffer any mental health problems in any episodes, and as well as successfully completing his lessons, he and his pet kangaroo were also able to catch criminals, put out bush fires, rescue people who had fallen down wells etc. Maybe in reality there were mental health professional visiting all the outback farms, and the program maker 'skipped' that bit out. Thu, 28 Jan 2021 22:39:24 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2021/01/robert-halfon-im-not-a-lockdown-sceptic-but-i-am-a-school-down-sceptic-and-fear-the-impact-of-these-closures.html#IDComment1097077601 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2021/01/robert-halfon-im-not-a-lockdown-sceptic-but-i-am-a-school-down-sceptic-and-fear-the-impact-of-these-closures.html#IDComment1097077361 As the parent of a 16 year old, I think Robert Halfon, like many others, ridiculously exaggerates the impact of children not being in school, and being home schooled instead. 1. If its so terrible for children's mental health to not be in school, how have we managed to have at least 6 weeks of summer holidays for as long as any us can remember in theUK, 8 weeks in France, 11 weeks in the USA with seemingly no ill effects? 2. He does not recognise that past the age of about 13, at least 95% of what he and his colleagues in education have caused to be taught in schools is irrelevant to most pupils. They will never use it again. If this year children do not learn to manipulate cosines and quadratic equations quite as well as previous years' students, or do not learn french irregular verbs quite as thoroughly, it will make absolutely no difference to anything as they will never use that knowledge, it is mostly useless to them. The small proportion of pupils who go on to study science, medicine and engineering will anyway keep up. 3. I have quite easily home schooled my daughter remotely (before the school got its act together) using a mobile phone, and as far as I can see that is how the vast majority of her friends get their lessons communicated from the school. The teacher simply photographs the work and sends it out. All this stuff about laptops and broadband being essential is tosh from the out of touch. Thu, 28 Jan 2021 22:26:59 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2021/01/robert-halfon-im-not-a-lockdown-sceptic-but-i-am-a-school-down-sceptic-and-fear-the-impact-of-these-closures.html#IDComment1097077361 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/10/daniel-hannan-we-need-the-governments-estimate-of-the-cost-of-the-lockdown-to-lives-and-livelihoods.html#IDComment1094914622 Should we not try to agree that the decisions need to be made on some sort of objective basis? The problem with Hannan and indeed the rest of us, is that he has already reached his conclusion, then is trying to justify it. Objectively, the costs of what has been spent so far should be regarded as 'sunk' costs, we should only look forward. If we take one extreme scenario, of taking minimal measures to contain the virus and resigning ourselves to it mostly working through the population, a fair estimate is maybe 300,000 premature deaths, with an average loss of about 5 years of life. Using the figure of £30,000 per year of quality life as being the valuation we make in other healthcare calculations, this would 'cost' £45 billion. Lockdown cost 20% of GDP in the first quarter, with GDP of £2200, billion I calculate that means full lockdown costs £37 billion a month in lost output. The August level of lockdown resulted in GDP being down 9% , that equates to £16.5 billion a month. Thus many months of these restrictions would exceed the £45 billion value we place on this 'lost life' in other healthcare scenarios. However, if the restrictions are only in place a couple of months, then a testing/track/trace regime plus vaccination means they can be lifted then going forward they are worth it, using the criteria we use in other health care scenarios. I think we can debate whether £30,000 is the right number, or if there are also other factors, but surely some numbers based objectivity is needed? Its not just a question of simply money v lives, because we could spend the money on 'saving lives' in other ways, which might ( or might not) give us a better outcome than spending it on 'lockdowns'. Thu, 29 Oct 2020 12:13:32 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/10/daniel-hannan-we-need-the-governments-estimate-of-the-cost-of-the-lockdown-to-lives-and-livelihoods.html#IDComment1094914622 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/10/daniel-hannan-we-need-the-governments-estimate-of-the-cost-of-the-lockdown-to-lives-and-livelihoods.html#IDComment1094900969 I agree with that, I made the same point above in my own comment above. Track and trace to keep the virus supressed at a very low level, say 10,000 tests a day @ £100 per test maybe £1million per day plus admin?.There is however a big cost now in re-suppressing the virus, after the government has incompetently let it accelerate again. Its the vastly expensive furloughing of millions of people that's been costing hundreds of billions. Even 1 million hospitality workers laid off for 1 year @ £30,000 each = only £30billion a year. Wed, 28 Oct 2020 22:46:20 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/10/daniel-hannan-we-need-the-governments-estimate-of-the-cost-of-the-lockdown-to-lives-and-livelihoods.html#IDComment1094900969 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/10/daniel-hannan-we-need-the-governments-estimate-of-the-cost-of-the-lockdown-to-lives-and-livelihoods.html#IDComment1094896386 Actually I think there is a very important underlying point to what you are saying. We should perhaps look at preventing covid deaths as NICE would look at the cost effectiveness of extending people's lives with expensive drugs. A quick look at the NICE data says we regard spending £30,000 per year of quality life gained as perhaps the cut off point for cost effective medical interventions. Suppose we just let covid rip, I estimate the deaths at say 300,000, and using data from Incunabulon above, let's estimate these people are losing on average 5 good years of life. Tp prevent this it would justify spending 300,000 x 5 x £30,000 = I make it £45 billion. (Readers please check, maybe I got number of zeros wrong!). Given we have spent way more than this, perhaps we should acknowledge your basic proposition is correct: we are spending way too much on preventing these deaths, and the money could be spent better in other ways, Wed, 28 Oct 2020 18:20:51 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/10/daniel-hannan-we-need-the-governments-estimate-of-the-cost-of-the-lockdown-to-lives-and-livelihoods.html#IDComment1094896386 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/10/daniel-hannan-we-need-the-governments-estimate-of-the-cost-of-the-lockdown-to-lives-and-livelihoods.html#IDComment1094891278 The estimates from Office for National Statistics are that about 6% of population has had the virus, resulting in 40, 000 coronovirus deaths. Scaling to 100% of the population gives 40,000 x 100/6 = 667,000 deaths. Even if a disproportionate number of the vulnerable have already died in care homes, and herd immunity stopped the spread after 70% of people got the disease, that still would make several hundred thousand deaths the likely outcome of the disease spreading throughout the population in an unconstrained way. Regarding life expectancy, the figure you need is not for someone born in 1999, but rather for people who are 82,4 years old. I do not have the statistics for the UK to hand, but for the US it is at least 6 years on average. While this obviously means that the disease has much less impact than if the average age of the deceased was 20 years old , it is still very significant. Finally, were sensible measures enacted there is certainly no need for a massive hit to the economy. But there needs to be a shift in employment away from hospitality to construction, outdoor leisure etc while the pandemic is going on. Wed, 28 Oct 2020 14:07:22 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/10/daniel-hannan-we-need-the-governments-estimate-of-the-cost-of-the-lockdown-to-lives-and-livelihoods.html#IDComment1094891278 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/10/daniel-hannan-we-need-the-governments-estimate-of-the-cost-of-the-lockdown-to-lives-and-livelihoods.html#IDComment1094887575 This analysis is false. The true comparison is between 2 options. 1. Let the virus spread throughout the population, which has a cost of several hundred thousand premature deaths from the disease itself and from the NHS being overwhelmed. 2. Not the cost of 'lockdown', but the costs of a competently designed set of measures to reduce the spread of the virus to keep the R number below one, until we have a vaccine We have not had the latter. We have half cock measures, badly designed, emphasis on hand washing and distance instead of ventilation, foolish plans like 'eat out to help out', a woke insistence every child should return to school, and idiotically, we sent students back to halls of residence to spread the disease. The world beating 'track and trace ' system has not materialised. Hannan compares the costs of doing nothing with the costs of incompetence, not the costs of a properly constructed response. Wed, 28 Oct 2020 10:52:52 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/10/daniel-hannan-we-need-the-governments-estimate-of-the-cost-of-the-lockdown-to-lives-and-livelihoods.html#IDComment1094887575 https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/10/three-actions-ministers-must-take-if-were-to-live-without-fear-or-else-they-and-we-will-be-lost.html#IDComment1094587818 A completely false and misleading article by Paul Goodman. He should be ashamed. The best option, was and is, to suppress the virus to a very low level, so that a testing regime and, 'track and trace' system can keep the virus supressed without widespread lockdowns. As is happening in China, Sourh Korea, New Zealand etc. We should have done this, but headbangers like Riki were obsessed with reopening hospitality, wokesters were obsessed with opening schools, and we lifted the lock down too soon. A bit like the fire brigade going home because the fire is 90% out, and surprise surprise, the fire starts up again once they have gone. Thu, 15 Oct 2020 16:48:22 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/10/three-actions-ministers-must-take-if-were-to-live-without-fear-or-else-they-and-we-will-be-lost.html#IDComment1094587818 https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2020/09/i-cannot-save-every-business-i-cannot-save-every-job-no-chancellor-could-the-chancellors-statement-full-text.html#IDComment1094118551 I would suppose the sectors that would expand are those such as house building, home improvement, and those supplying outdoor leisure activities, I'm not saying people with no skills can easily transfer to them, people need to retrain and Sunak would be better paying to help people retrain than paying generous furlough. Fri, 25 Sep 2020 08:38:32 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2020/09/i-cannot-save-every-business-i-cannot-save-every-job-no-chancellor-could-the-chancellors-statement-full-text.html#IDComment1094118551 https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2020/09/i-cannot-save-every-business-i-cannot-save-every-job-no-chancellor-could-the-chancellors-statement-full-text.html#IDComment1094103527 Sunak is making a mess of this. There seem to be two factions in government, just as there are here below the line. One includes Boris and Hancock, and they wished to lockdown for longer, and properly suppress the virus, then it could have been contained with track and trace. The other faction - wanted to ignore the virus, and restart the economy as soon as possible. They were warned that would risk the virus coming back, and either thousands of deaths , or more lockdown measures. This faction included Sunak. Unfortunately Sunak won the argument, and he is the architect of the bungling plan to force everybody back to work, travel on public transport , and eat out as much as possible. Total total folly. The predicted resurgence of the virus has now happened, which will cost another £100billion. Instead of trying to preserve jobs in hospitality, Sunak should have been facilitating people moving to other sectors not badly affected by Covid. Thu, 24 Sep 2020 15:13:33 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2020/09/i-cannot-save-every-business-i-cannot-save-every-job-no-chancellor-could-the-chancellors-statement-full-text.html#IDComment1094103527 https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/06/the-slow-steady-fall-of-confidence-in-johnsons-handling-of-the-coronavirus-continues.html#IDComment1091507147 I am also very glad the Tories won. I am not advocating a change of government. I am saying the membership should be honest and critical of the ongoing handling of the cv crisis, because that gives the best chance of the government making the correct decisions in future. We locked down too late. The lockdown was not rigorous enough, and failed to identify high risk areas of transmission such as care homes. It is very likely the lockdown in England is being lifted too soon. Cheer leading bad decisions just leads to more bad decisions Tue, 30 Jun 2020 12:44:14 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/06/the-slow-steady-fall-of-confidence-in-johnsons-handling-of-the-coronavirus-continues.html#IDComment1091507147 https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/06/the-slow-steady-fall-of-confidence-in-johnsons-handling-of-the-coronavirus-continues.html#IDComment1091495676 The number of people who think the government has done a decent job of dealing with the crisis is depressing. Is this what the party membership has become- feeble minded cheer leaders, regardless of data,information, facts? Mon, 29 Jun 2020 21:29:34 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/06/the-slow-steady-fall-of-confidence-in-johnsons-handling-of-the-coronavirus-continues.html#IDComment1091495676 https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2020/06/philip-booth-coronavirus-is-no-excuse-for-surrendering-to-the-left-on-economics.html#IDComment1091254451 What is your reasoning or evidence that cutting interest rates below 3% is counterproductive? Fri, 19 Jun 2020 18:26:03 +0000 https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2020/06/philip-booth-coronavirus-is-no-excuse-for-surrendering-to-the-left-on-economics.html#IDComment1091254451