en-us https://www.intensedebate.com/users/723537 Comments by TroyPatterson http://firebrandal.com/2012/05/03/josh-beckett-the-first-victim-of-pitch-counts/#IDComment353468847 Thanks Jibble, This image was grabbed by a WordPress app and this is the preformatted crediting. Not sure why it listed it this way. Thu, 3 May 2012 18:41:27 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/05/03/josh-beckett-the-first-victim-of-pitch-counts/#IDComment353468847 http://firebrandal.com/2012/04/26/the-curse-of-curt-young/#IDComment348588197 Well he's using it less in 2012, but in a small sample and still near 25% of his pitches. really the bulk of my concern is Beckett and Buchholz, but Lester could stand to throw it a bit less as well. The pitch is effective for him with good whiff rates (although a lot of swings on it) and good groundball rates, but I just want him back below 20% usage and in the right spots. Thu, 26 Apr 2012 17:28:06 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/04/26/the-curse-of-curt-young/#IDComment348588197 http://firebrandal.com/2012/04/26/the-curse-of-curt-young/#IDComment348566574 I'm curious what you mean by this statement Chip "Lester has been one of the most effective pitchers in baseball using the cutter. " Are you saying he has one of the best cutters in baseball or that Lester has been good, but also uses a cutter. If his cutter is average or overused isn't it fair to say he could use it less and be more effective? Unless you're saying he has one of the best cutters, which I am fairly confident he doesn't. His cutter has been variable at best and was good for a two year period in small samples, but now that he uses it more it has not been as effective. Thu, 26 Apr 2012 16:48:02 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/04/26/the-curse-of-curt-young/#IDComment348566574 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/29/know-thyself-2012-boston-red-sox/#IDComment327285934 He should have been included in the "rest". Without options he probably gets mop up duty on the major league roster with a chance to gain more time. I still need to see more from him, but he should get a shot this April. Thu, 29 Mar 2012 18:48:42 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/29/know-thyself-2012-boston-red-sox/#IDComment327285934 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/22/the-leadoff-dilema/#IDComment323060383 I only pick Pedroia over Youkilis because of the added home runs. If both played 150 games I think Youkilis still hits an extra 10 home runs over Pedroia. That power is more valuable later in the lineup. Sat, 24 Mar 2012 01:29:21 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/22/the-leadoff-dilema/#IDComment323060383 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/22/the-leadoff-dilema/#IDComment323059122 Again didn't Crawford say he didn't like to lead off? He's not a good leadoff and doesn't want to do it. Pedroia is still the best choice and his recent comments have softened on taking that role. Sat, 24 Mar 2012 01:26:32 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/22/the-leadoff-dilema/#IDComment323059122 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/22/the-leadoff-dilema/#IDComment322736703 I see no reason to put Crawford in the leadoff. His career OBP is .333 and is less of a leadoff hitter than Ellsbury. Fri, 23 Mar 2012 14:58:52 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/22/the-leadoff-dilema/#IDComment322736703 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/22/the-leadoff-dilema/#IDComment322736014 Because Pedroia has 30 points higher OBP and Pedroia is not a lefty who can take ful advantage of Ellsbury being on first base. Fri, 23 Mar 2012 14:57:28 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/22/the-leadoff-dilema/#IDComment322736014 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/22/the-leadoff-dilema/#IDComment322137917 Is it very good? Yes, but not amazing. He's gotten considerably better as well, which is all the more reason to move him to leadoff. As for his 354 PA in the leadoff he has a .253/.318/.375 split with a BABIP of .261. His BABIP in the second spot is .319 meaning there is no reason to doubt he would succeed in the leadoff given enough time. Thu, 22 Mar 2012 19:13:58 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/22/the-leadoff-dilema/#IDComment322137917 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/22/the-leadoff-dilema/#IDComment322059814 Yeah. That should have said Ortiz, unless Youkilis spent the offseason working on switch hitting. Thu, 22 Mar 2012 16:55:22 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/22/the-leadoff-dilema/#IDComment322059814 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/22/the-leadoff-dilema/#IDComment322059176 They might be a fluke at 30, but I don't think we should say he's going back to single digits either. The fair estimate is somewhere in the middle, meaning right around the same range as Pedroia. Thu, 22 Mar 2012 16:54:12 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/22/the-leadoff-dilema/#IDComment322059176 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/15/analyzing-spring-data-and-the-pesky-5-spot/#IDComment316781023 I agree with your thought on starting in April does not confirm anything for the rest of the year. Even if he pitches well Doubront could be moved in trade if the team feels confident one of the others or an outside option would be better for the rest of 2012. Thu, 15 Mar 2012 14:48:20 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/15/analyzing-spring-data-and-the-pesky-5-spot/#IDComment316781023 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/01/sabermetric-spring-training-wrc-and-wrc/#IDComment306310471 Wow. You are correct tonez, the only facepalming is at my own mistake. Ellsbury was 75 runs over the average. Fri, 2 Mar 2012 14:52:47 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/03/01/sabermetric-spring-training-wrc-and-wrc/#IDComment306310471 http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/16/sabermetric-spring-training-woba/#IDComment294145719 Good question. The difference is due to the effect of situation. An unintentional more often occurs in a situation when the pitcher is avoiding the hitter. They aren't always, but the pitcher will avoid them as best as possible when they really hurt. HBP on the other hand are extremely random and will have a higher tendency to hurt the pitcher and help the hitter score a run. It's a small effect, but enough to worth seperating the two. Thu, 16 Feb 2012 19:02:43 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/16/sabermetric-spring-training-woba/#IDComment294145719 http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/09/sabermetric-spring-training-fip/#IDComment291442176 Good point. I think the point of FIP is to remove fielding, but there is also a wish to remove the effects of luck inherent in the stat. The use of xFIP is to continue the effect of removing luck and obviously not fielding. Mon, 13 Feb 2012 15:44:26 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/09/sabermetric-spring-training-fip/#IDComment291442176 http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/09/a-pitch-fx-look-at-daniel-bard-part-1/#IDComment288375422 So far 160 seems to be the very upper limit for him from any projection I have seen. Alexi Ogando topped 180 when you include the playoffs, C.J. Wilson topped 228 in 2010 though when playoffs are included. (Won't hear Verducci mention him after topping 200 again in 2011) I think the Red Sox will be cautious with Bard, but topping 160 is a real possibility for a team looking for two starters instead of just one and obviously looking at a playoff run can't hold him out to much. Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:51:52 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/09/a-pitch-fx-look-at-daniel-bard-part-1/#IDComment288375422 http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/09/sabermetric-spring-training-fip/#IDComment287979939 Once I get a few more going we will be working on a glossary, which will include the basic definition as well as links to these pages. Also any time we reference one of these stats there will be a link to our description. I agree with your idea for leaders, average and Sox leaders. I will use that on future stats, but FIP and xFIP are fairly easy to understand in this regard. It attempts to match ERA value so below 4.00 is better than average and around 3.00 is great. Anything under 3.00 is elite. Of course this shifted a bit in 2011 as offense was down a bit, but we'll see if that repeats in 2012. Most of those things you mentioned are out of the pitchers control and so FIP attempts to remove them, but something like broken bats and weak contact are something we need to identify as a skill by looking at numbers like Line Drive rate and BABIP. If a pitcher repeats this skill we can trust that ERA maybe more precise than FIP. Thu, 9 Feb 2012 15:21:46 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/09/sabermetric-spring-training-fip/#IDComment287979939 http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/02/the-long-shot-option/#IDComment283280580 CAIRO, Marcel and OLIVER all currently have Red Sox with 89-93 wins with CAIRO projecting a division win. All three have the team in the playoffs. I am more likely to put my trust in a projection system than a national writer. Sat, 4 Feb 2012 01:50:35 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/02/the-long-shot-option/#IDComment283280580 http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/02/the-long-shot-option/#IDComment283269834 "picked Boston to make the post season" That is much different than a clear 6th placed team, also national writers are not exactly who I want to listen to predict baseball outcomes. Sat, 4 Feb 2012 01:33:50 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/02/the-long-shot-option/#IDComment283269834 http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/02/the-long-shot-option/#IDComment283090968 Don't agree at all. Tampa is not in the group right now and the rest are all so close to say Boston is last is silly. Fri, 3 Feb 2012 20:57:10 +0000 http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/02/the-long-shot-option/#IDComment283090968