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6 hours ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Johnson - 'I'm ... · 3 replies · +1 points

Juxtaposition with South Korea, a country of 51m people with similar per capita income to ours, is illuminating.

They have now leapfrogged our GDP and to boot their public finances are intact, whereas our GDP has crumbled and our public finances crippled and will require a decade of high inflation.

7 hours ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Coronavirus Count · 0 replies · +1 points

Closing your borders and having a functional domestic economy like South Korea is highly preferable to closing your borders and locking down your domestic economy.

South Korea has a population of 52m, not that far from ours and they don’t have the advantage of being an actual island.

The difference is that they were prepared and when the outbreak started they acted faster than anyone.

They crushed their outbreak with dazzling technological prowess (designing new tests and mapping genomes with huge supercomputer clusters in mere days) and now their domestic economy is largely fully functional.

South Koreans are now buying up distressed assets around the world with their strong currency.

We didn’t get out the blocks in the beginning because our government executives were away on extended holidays and when they returned they selected the wrong strategy.

Those precious weeks we squandered mean South Korea’a GDP has now leap frogged ours. I expect that new ranking will be permanent.

History will not be kind.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - A new Leader of the Op... · 0 replies · +1 points

Kier Starmer is a vastly more credible PM candidate than Corbyn, who was possibly the worst opposition leader ever.

He is a dangerous opposition leader, anyone who says otherwise is ignorant or naive. Elections will actually have to be faught.

However, Starmer has an awful lot of work to do, he is surrounded by lightweights and their whole organisation needs a complete overhaul. It seems to promote box tickers and yes men.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Coronavirus Count · 0 replies · +1 points

Except we don’t have enough tests to test everyone who develops symptoms, so we lost track of that, and we don’t publish hospital admissions.

We publish deaths but these are delayed by 72 hours as we don’t add deaths to the public figures until next of kin have been informed.

The UK data is probably even less reliable than Chinese data. Our data handling is a complete shambles really.

All we know is that 72 hours ago the death rate was about 560 / 24 hours. It looks like we are slightly behind France, but in reality we are probably in the position as France.

The Nightingale Hospitals are impressive though, of all the stuff we need to do well building surge capacity is the primary requirement. Whoever orchestrated that needs to dragged before the Queen and made a Duke.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Paul Maynard and Tim A... · 1 reply · +1 points

Remind me how the virus got here?

My business didn’t import this virus into the country, so why should I be bailing out the culprits?

Let the airlines fail, seize their assets, auction the jet fleets off and let newly incorporated businesses buy them with new capital and they can operate the assets. That is how capitalism works.

It’s supposed to work that way.

Why would you tax good businesses and take money from them to throw at failed ventures? To bid up the price of worthless equity? Stupid.

Bailing out failed companies is not what we do, it’s flawed, it doesn’t work, we shouldn’t do it. There is no reason at all to do it. I cannot see a single benefit.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Paul Maynard and Tim A... · 1 reply · +1 points

Air travel will never recover from this. It has peaked.
The air industry is now horribly overcapacity, as is the oil supply.

Pay money to be locked in a cramp metal tube with 300 strangers for 6 hours? A significant fraction of the population will be deterred forever and businesses are rapidly adjusting to the normalisation of video calling.

I imagine the air industry will have to get used to empty seats.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Paul Maynard and Tim A... · 3 replies · +1 points

Looking at this crisis unfold it seems glaringly obvious to me that the airline / airport industry will be horribly overcapacity in the Brave New World.

The AA are suggesting that transport demand growth is now dead. It will never happen. Road utility is only expected to recover to be 80% of what it was.

People just aren’t going to want to fly. International travel is now associated with disease, passenger numbers will never fully recover.
Business trips are passé in the face of slick comms technologies.

Most airline models are now broken. They will stay broken.

Airports are going to have to have bio-screening everywhere, people aren’t going to make business trips when tech is now good enough to have solid meetings.

2021 will be nothing like 2019.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - LISTEN: Blue Collar Co... · 1 reply · +1 points

There is no such thing as a local internet business.

The whole point of a website is that it reaches a wide audience and allows you to ship anywhere.

This... “Local retail high street business online directories should have proper local high street websites, mobile friendly!” ... I don’t know what this means? It’s a word salad.

Any shop can get an out the box website up and running and branded and populated for <£1,000. But the point of doing that is to reach customers who are not local. It gives you a second revenue stream and you can double up your High St shop as a warehouse and packaging facility.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - LISTEN: Blue Collar Co... · 2 replies · +1 points

Who the hell cares about a £10bn trade deal? Nobody.
Or our £7bn EU membership? Nobody.

We just sanctioned a £350bn fiscal stimulus to fight a pandemic. Soon we will need more.

In the 60 days since COVID arrived here in the UK, we have already spent more on COVID than our entire historic EU / EEC membership.

Brexit is completely and utterly irrelevant now.
The world has changed beyond recognition, wake up and look at the numbers.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - LISTEN: Blue Collar Co... · 1 reply · +1 points

People won’t be commuting across borders after this, and global trade has peaked for 30 years.

The old world that we all knew is gone. Many businesses should fail to make space for reorganising our economies.

This is a cultural and societal redefining moment in world history. Human socioeconomic behaviour is going to change forever. It’s extremely difficult to predict what the future will be like, but many historic trends will be invalidated and new trends will emerge.

Brexit and the EU are footnotes in the shadow of this pandemic.

The world is crashing into a new geopolitical era too, the US administration is blatantly preparing the ground to whip up a fierce partisan backlash against China.