618 comments posted · 2 followers · following 0

46 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Smith's plan for North... · 0 replies · +1 points

Looks like the DUP would have been better off accepting the deal on offer in February 2018.

51 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The campaign, week fiv... · 0 replies · +1 points

YouGov has Labour's vote in Scotland at 15%, down from 27% at the last election. Without winning at least 40 Scottish seats, I don't see how they could form a majority government. They would need a seismic swing from Conservative to Labour in England to compensate for this.

52 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Stephen Booth: The str... · 3 replies · +1 points

The bit in bold in the manifesto, saying we will not extend beyond December 2020, is akin to Boris saying emphatically that we would leave in October 2019. It is a statement that simply begs the question of how that could be achieved.

The official answer is that the trade negotiations will be completed rapidly because we both start from the same position. But the start point is irrelevant, it is the end point that matters. The agreement will only be completed rapidly if there is minimal divergence - which is not what Boris says he wants.

As the article suggests, if there has been some progress on the way forward, perhaps May's ruse of calling an extension an 'implementation period' might be brought back into play.

55 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - "I remain a Conservati... · 0 replies · +1 points

Reducing the deficit. Fiscal responsibility was something that Conservatives used to believe in.

55 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Congratulations to Hoy... · 0 replies · +1 points

Chorley is one of the seats that Electoral Calculus predicts to be a Conservative gain. With Hoyle now as Speaker I suppose there will not be a Conservative candidate to realise that gain. However the Brexit Party candidates list shows that they will put up someone - Caroline Moon - who stood against Hoyle last time as the Conservative candidate.

Incidentally, the Brexit Party candidates list also shows that they will deliberately not stand against 10 MPs they describe as 'Spartan Tories'.

55 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - James says to Johnson:... · 4 replies · +1 points

Mark Field said a similar thing yesterday about his standing down. "On Brexit, I did not want to be a disaffected backbencher in opposition to my party."

55 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The point of Bryant's ... · 1 reply · +1 points

As other posters have pointed out, Bercow used to be not just Conservative but on the right of the party.

When John Major beat off John Redwood in the leadership election of 1995 there was a BBC interview with a jubilant Ann Widdecombe and a despondent John Bercow.

56 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Henry Hill: Why Johnso... · 1 reply · +1 points

In 2017 the SNP were going though a relatively bad period and a lot of voters lined up behind whoever was most likely to oust them in their particular constituency - Conservative, Labour or Lib Dem. I think all 3 benefited more from anti-SNP sentiment than a positive view of their particular party. So the key factor is whether or not SNP support recovers towards its 2015 level.

56 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Andrew Gimson's PMQs s... · 4 replies · +1 points

The latest Electoral Calculus prediction shows the Conservatives winning an impressive majority of 76 on a 35% vote. This is achieved by losing 21 seats to the Lib Dems & SNP but gaining a whopping 66 seats from Labour.

As I have pointed out in another post, when you look at their analysis of the individual seats the 66 gains are produced by voters changing from Labour to LibDem. It seems to me that this is a less reliable way of gaining a seat than increasing your vote share - which is what happens to the the Lib Dems and SNP where they are predicted to take seats away.

56 weeks ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Andrew Gimson's Common... · 0 replies · +1 points

All these things about Labour, that you mention, were known at the last election.

My question is why people who knew these things about Labour and voted for them last time would now change to a party that is a distant 3rd in their constituency.

In other words I am suggesting that it is unrealistic to apply national swings to individual constituencies.