Pinyan

Pinyan

22p

16 comments posted · 0 followers · following 0

504 weeks ago @ DemConWatch - This Just In... · 2 replies · +1 points

I say they stop counting right now...

I know that's a joke, but let's keep counting. Both to increase the margin (removing doubt) and to preserve democracy.

Also, insert joke on "I wonder who Sarah Palin voted for" here.

506 weeks ago @ DemConWatch - It's Election Day · 0 replies · +1 points

My prediction map (with made-up margins for the close states):

Obama 349-189, just winning Missouri but just losing North Carolina and Indiana.

506 weeks ago @ DemConWatch - Making it Count: How t... · 0 replies · +1 points

There are individual state videos for the swing states. There is not a separate video for Pennsylvania. Draw your own conclusion from this :)

506 weeks ago @ DemConWatch - Polling Update - Octob... · 0 replies · +1 points

Awesome... because of DST, the post I just made is marked as "1 hour ago".

506 weeks ago @ DemConWatch - Polling Update - Octob... · 2 replies · +2 points

I figure this is the best place to announce it first. I had a delegate scorecard that I kept during the primaries, and I've devised a similar (though obviously simpler) Excel spreadsheet for the general election. It's available here if linking works.
It's got the House and Presidential races with closing times. For the House races, any that are listed as under contest by one of my two favorite sources (The Green Papers and Election Projection) are broken out. For the Presidential race, any state which is currently 100% on 538.com is pre-credited, but you can mix and match. The idea is you can see "Virginia and Ohio are projected for Obama... adding that to what we already know is 267, so it's not QUITE over yet... OK, Pennsylvania, and that's all, folks."

If that link doesn't work, and you'd like a copy, respond here and I'll try to email it out.

506 weeks ago @ DemConWatch - Republicans for Obama · 0 replies · +1 points

With all due respect, Ron Reagan is not a Republican.

506 weeks ago @ DemConWatch - Join Obama in Chicago · 0 replies · +1 points

I've made two donations of $20, so my email says

Any donation counts -- whatever you can afford. Show your support at this crucial time with a donation of $25 or more, and you could join me on Election Night:

506 weeks ago @ DemConWatch - The Governors' Ma... · 0 replies · +1 points

Worth noting: Missouri is a pick-up. Also, because I had a bit of trouble sourcing the Vermont "majority required" rule, here's the relevant section of their state constitution:

§ 47. [Election of governor, lieutenant-governor and treasurer]

The voters of each town shall, on the day of election for choosing Representatives to attend the General Assembly, bring in their votes for Governor, with the name fairly written, to the Constable, who shall seal them up, and write on them, Votes for Governor, and deliver them to the Representatives chosen to attend the General Assembly; and at the opening of the General Assembly, there shall be a committee appointed out of the Senate and House of Representatives, who, after being duly sworn to the faithful discharge of their trust, shall proceed to receive, sort, and count the votes for Governor, and declare the person who has the major part of the votes, to be Governor for the two years ensuing. The Lieutenant-Governor and the Treasurer shall be chosen in the manner above directed.

The votes for Governor, Lieutenant-Governor, and Treasurer, of the State, shall be sorted and counted, and the result declared, by a committee appointed by the Senate and House of Representatives.

If, at any time, there shall be no election, of Governor, Lieutenant-Governor, or Treasurer, of the State, the Senate and House of Representatives shall by a joint ballot, elect to fill the office, not filled as aforesaid, one of the three candidates for such office (if there be so many) for whom the greatest number of votes shall have been returned.

In other words, it doesn't even matter if Symington drops to 3rd, all 3 of the candidates go to the legislature.

506 weeks ago @ DemConWatch - When? · 0 replies · +1 points

That was exactly what I was coming here to say. At 10:59, Obama will have 154 obvious votes. Other states that could be projected for him by then include VA, OH, NH, PA. CO, NM which is 72 (226 total). States which I think will still be out there include IN, FL, MO, NC, MT, and NV. Obama would need most of those to be called fairly quickly to have it won before 11. But once California et al. close, et's al over. Not just CA's 55, but a total of 77 obvious votes will go blue at that time, so even if Ohio isn't called by then, it'll be enough.
So my guess is 11:00:20. After all, it's a long paragraph: "It is now 11:00. Polls have closed in California, Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, and Washington. At this time, NBC News is projecting Barack Obama will win California and with it, 55 electoral votes. Therefore, at this time, NBC News is projecting Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States. NBC also projects Senator Obama will win the states of Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington..."

506 weeks ago @ DemConWatch - DemConWatch Presidenti... · 0 replies · +1 points

Link to an image with my prediction.

In text form: Obama 349-189
Obama wins: CO, FL, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, VA
McCain wins: GA, IN, MT, NC, ND, WV
Popular vote: Obama 52.5%, McCain 46.3%
(Barr .6%, Nader .3%, McKinney .1%, Baldwin .1%, scattering .1%)