gdp's Comments

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Apple/Google/Amazon P/E Over Time

Wed, 30 Nov 2011 23:57:23 +0000

I hope you'll explain it to the rest of us who can't make the talk. It's hard to justify a P/E of over 100, but try this thought experiment: which company is most likely to be around in 50 years? Which has the most sustainable business model and the widest moat? The price doesn't have to be "right" to be telling you something.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Tickling. Can't. Why?

Tue, 25 Oct 2011 17:31:38 +0000

It's not "hard" to see the follow-up questions that this research is going to "stimulate." Perhaps they already have the grant money "in hand." Shame on you for making me be the "jerk" who had to point this out. Now I'll just go wash up...

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : PC Market Sales Data

Tue, 18 Oct 2011 02:01:30 +0000

God help you, did you actually short Microsoft? On the basis of a chart like that, would you short AT&T or Verizon? How about Philip Morris? Pfizer? Oracle? In my experience, heavy Apple users and employees are incapable of dispassionately analyzing MSFT the way they would any other business. Why not short the big telcos: didn't Apple just vaporize the (100% gross margin) text messaging business? Aren't iPhone and Android about to dial their ROIs down to the same pain threshhold they did with Sprint? There are plenty of good shorts in today's market, but I don't think MSFT is one of them. As I always say: don't short stocks angry! [Disclosure: long MSFT since April, but also long some utilities and other boring stuff.]

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : I'm Reading a Book

Thu, 13 Oct 2011 03:27:18 +0000

Then you probably haven't seen this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlKL_EpnSp8

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Thiel: The End of the Future

Sat, 8 Oct 2011 03:31:06 +0000

I inferred that you mostly agree with Thiel, possibly from years of reading your posts, and I certainly understand your objection as you've amplified it here. I'm sure I've said less pleasant things after attending one of his lectures. Someday for kicks I may write that nasty essay about the baby boomers--you're too young to be offended, right? On a serious note, to write anything at Thiel's level of ambition that's more than intellectual wallpaper (insert here your least favorite NYT columnist) requires offending someone (or everyone), and I'm always happy to irritate the wound in service of this philosophy.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Thiel: The End of the Future

Sat, 8 Oct 2011 02:39:28 +0000

Really? A couple of paragraphs do not a rant make. It's pretty clear he's not specifically endorsing the legacy of Moses or Brasilia, but rather the intensity of their vision. As for the hippies, I imagine what he meant was that the baby boomer generation took progress for granted, whereas their parents had to fight for it. Furthermore, they defined progress to mean many things that no sane culture would (c.f. Ben and Jerry). This may or may not have been Thiel's point, which would take an entire essay to develop. Regardless, words like 'sad' and 'whack' do not a rebuttal make.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Alex Honnold on 60 Minutes

Wed, 5 Oct 2011 00:35:18 +0000

Sounds like you're taking it kind of personally--if you think people on TV generally know what they're talking about, you've been away from CNBC for too long! Besides, why single out the newsreader when the producer is the one who writes the script?

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Death of Equities, II

Tue, 27 Sep 2011 00:55:28 +0000

Wake me up when there's a good Newsweek cover. The marginal investors (baby boomers and their pension funds) still haven't dialed realistic expected returns into their savings plan or consumption patterns. They're low on gas and the landing strip is far. The current storyline on CNBC (always a useful signal) is that buy-and-hold may be dead, but the ever-so-helpful guests can help viewers time the market. They'll be peddling "defensive" stocks all the way down the Slope of Hope, until their airtime gets turned over to infomercials for kitchen appliances. See you there and via con Dios!

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Kasriel: Treason, Friedman, and Credit

Wed, 21 Sep 2011 23:07:49 +0000

This is surely a provocative written by an economist who commands the respect of many people who don't generally respect economists. Yet the argument depends crucially on the idea that (non-consumer) private demand will rise to meet the supply created by QE, and secondarily that QE won't create asset bubbles (where arguable it already has). My understanding is that Friedman came to the view that the Fed should directly target the supply of money rather than credit. To a simple non-economist, this would seem to require QE plus monetization. This would be considered treason by the Church of Fractional Reserve Lending, bankers, and central bankers everywhere, since it expose their irrelevance to our severe deflationary circumstances. To the rest of us, QE is merely stupid and reckless, not necessarily a hanging offense.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Suskind: Insubordination in Obama Administration

Fri, 16 Sep 2011 22:19:50 +0000

Reminds me of Bob Woodward's account of Obama's failure to exert authority over his generals when deciding how far to escalate in Afghanistan.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Paul Samuelson on Social Security

Mon, 12 Sep 2011 18:10:14 +0000

Thanks for digging it out this fantastic quote! Economists say and assume dumb things all the time, but one of the dumbest and most common is the assumption of growing population. When given the chance, I make a point of asking these simpletons how much advance reservation time they think their grandchildren should endure to see the Grand Canyon or Yellowstone.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : More Density in Cities

Sun, 4 Sep 2011 18:32:09 +0000

Much of the economic activity of the world's great cities is generated by the migration of wealth created elsewhere. This was just as true of the great maritime powers centuries ago as it is of trust fund Manhattan. Great city-states are not built on cappuchino and Web design. Does Ryan Avent get this? Does Richard Florida?

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Wherein Paul Krugman Drives Me Mad

Tue, 9 Aug 2011 20:30:48 +0000

"Clearly, we are looking for a label. We need a label brimming with health, and everything from a nosh pot to a white sliced will wear one with pride. And although Im aware of the difficulties of coming to terms with this, it must be appreciated from the beginning, that even the nosh pot must be low in something, and if it isnt, it must be high in something else, and that is its health-giving ingredient we will sell." From "How to Get Ahead in Advertising" Krugman never hesitates to trot out the snake oil when it suits his policy goals. I'd be krankier.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : QotD: Barton Biggs -- I Want to Go Home

Sat, 6 Aug 2011 03:15:23 +0000

By now, he wants to go home and crawl under the bed. I can't imagine being on TV three times a week to talk your book helps you keep nimble when a trade goes against you.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Male Organ Size and Economic Growth

Mon, 18 Jul 2011 20:59:41 +0000

Nice to see economists are busy advancing the foreskin of knowledge.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Peak Uranium

Wed, 22 Jun 2011 02:50:10 +0000

Given the work on seawater extraction, perhaps you mean "peak mined uranium." Since I've hit peak mental capacity, I'd be happy if someone who really knows this stuff would weigh in.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Fact-Checking the Apocalypse

Sat, 30 Apr 2011 15:19:26 +0000

Purchases of gigantic houses and fast cars by high-profile "amateur climatologists" are occurring with more frequency and more intensity. You can fact check it. Another clear sign that we're in the latter days.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : What Kittens' Tongues Teach Us About Derivatives

Wed, 9 Feb 2011 00:06:30 +0000

I swear I saw that book at Borders the other day.

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : C-Beams Glittering Near Tannhauser Gate

Wed, 26 Jan 2011 18:52:48 +0000

Never answer phone. Let mail pile up for a week. E-mail once daily. Twitter, Facebook: are you kidding? Quit job. Neglect friends. See spouse on weekends only. Order meals in. Bathe on an "as needed" basis. Now if only I could stop reading blogs...

Paul Kedrosky: Infectious Greed : Scenes from The Suburbs

Thu, 30 Dec 2010 16:04:08 +0000

Younger readers may have also missed the very dark 1983 film 'Suburbia:' http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086589/