Hopefully your rethink has completed its download, seen the reality of what a Ukip vote could deliver and the Conservatives will get your support. Whatever merits Ukip may be seen to have, it simply isn't going to form the next government. The next government will be either: Labour, a Labour-LibDem coalition, a Conservative-LibDem coalition or a majority Conservative government. Many Ukip supporters must be realising that no matter what their heart says, their head when thinking entirely objectively is saying: "Vote Ukip wake up to a Labour or LibLab government in May 2015...and no referendum; vote Conservative and Britain will have its opportunity for a referendum and make the greatest progress to counter 'ever closer union' than at any time since we joined the 'Common Market'"

I know that's a very hard message to deliver, and for loyal, passionate Ukip voters to hear, but when one really analyses the voting-booth maths, one has to conclude that its true.

So far so good.

Osborne has delivered a budget that has silenced the Labour opposition (in terms of valid counter-argument, rather than the volume of their heckles) and left his own side - LibDem & Tory - feeling good about themselves.

This is an achievement, and the lack of gimmickry (Schapps bingo & beer wheeze aside) has been welcome.

I say, keep going like this George and you might become a Gideon to your opposition in 2015 :)

Wow, this is one of the most linguistically fascinating and impassioned posts I've ever seen on ConservativeHome!

Enjoy these highlights :)

"One can hardly blame a fish because it cannot ride a bicycle"
"a sleazy, meretricious, little elite of self-serving tricksters, deceivers and tacticians with nary a principle"
"Socialism and their mouthpieces the media"
"encouraging people to be more and more stupid, gullible, apathetic, envious, selfish .......... and despairing."
"It is the old argument of the cabbage and the philosopher"
"if I were a supine, forelock-tugging serf"
"he Bully Nanny State"
"these corrupt mountebanks"
"my long experience and intelligence"

I agree with your analysis.

The writer is right that this is not a time to even be thinking about who may follow David Cameron as leader.

But she is very wrong about Boris's appeal beyond the M25. One cannot deny that he is a great character, that he has a Heineken personality that reaches parts most politicians in Parliament cannot. Added to this he has been a Conservative who has won two fine elections to become Mayor of London, with its hugely diverse population - a far greater diversity than anywhere else in the UK, which means we know he has wide appeal with people across very wide spectrums. He is doing a good job, has appointed some excellent people as deputies and in other roles - and this is a critically important leadership trait.

Can't help think what an odd time it seems to have written this piece just before the Budget speech - Boris has clearly struck a nerve. The article itself adds to the distraction, although with so few comments compared with other ConservativeHome pieces, it clearly has little appeal beyond the ConservativeHome cognoscenti let alone the M25.

I'm not interested in who may follow Cameron, and like Eric Pickles, I'm also not interested in where anyone has come from...be it Eton or whatever other type of school in this country or beyond. To sum people up by a singular fact is to judge people in a completely simplistic manner. It is outrageous to judge people based on the colour of their skin, their religion or their ethnic origin, and nor should anyone be simplistically summed up on the basis of the school they attended or the father they had (remember the snipes at Ed Miliband's father). People, including leading politicians should be judged on their human qualities, where they are going (to quote Eric Pickles) and what value they are committed to bring to people as leader and what they have actually delivered.

Boris is in fact a wonderful character, so far removed from the general perception of a politician. He's a great asset to the Conservative party and deserves and gets great respect and affection from people. He's brightened up London and has been a great ambassador for the City.

Don't knock Boris.

In fact, don't knock anyone who is out there doing their best for their party and country, particularly if they're on your same team. Save the metaphorical gunpowder for your opposition.

It may be Ealing, but this isn't a comedy.

Its not even a tragedy, instead it has the aroma of a horror.

Firstly, having mentioned smoked ukippers, I am delighted to have a response from a SmokedKipper - particularly to enjoy it at breakfast :) - I appreciate the sense of humour shown by your tag name - its great.

RE: "There's a good chance that Labour will offer a referendum too".

....good chance, no promise.

Personally, and I respect that others may have another view, that I'd rather a referendum with its question being put to us by a Conservative government. I'd feel uncomfortable with a historically euro-federalist Labour party managing the referendum process. You may well much prefer a Labour government managing it.

RE: "Also, remember who you're talking to. Don't make this nasty."

I'm sorry if you have taken what I have written as 'nasty'. I certainly didn't intend to be so. I did intend to be robust in putting my views.

RE: "UKIP would be better to have as rivals than enemies. Competition is healthy, remember?"

As rivals they have already undermined the right-of-centre/right of political life in Britain in terms of electoral results. If all ex Tory members in Ukip re-joined, they would be closer to achieving their objective and reunite the Right. That would be a much better result than firing at us from the sidelines, whilst Labour moves forward against both of us.

If you were a General (perhaps you are!!!) trying to win a battle, you'd recognise the situation and advise unity.

"United we stand, divided we fall".
(appreciating that there are also Ukip members who are ex Labour people).

True. A cold hard fact that Ukippers can't bear to hear or admit is correct.

Malcolm is right, it is as clear as crystal.

It may not wash with Ukippers, but the hypothesis makes sense and is logical.

What some ex-Tory Ukippers just will not admit is that by leaving the party and then attacking it, they undermine it. Two parties populating the same rough ground on the right will cancel each other out rather than beat the left. Look over to Northern Ireland, where the DUP and UUP have in places duffed each other up electorally, resulting in a Sien Fien seat being won. That same maths in the UK has added up to Ukip votes resulting in LibDem and Labour MPs sitting in Parliament. The statistics and polls are there as proof.

RE: "Unless the conservative party wants to die out.. it needs to change. its really very very simple Maredudd."

- have you been listening and looking? If so, you will have noticed that the Conservative Party has been changing and its policies too. Cameron has been 100% clear about the referendum, and Hague & Co have been carefully exploring how we can change our relationship with the EU.
- I should add that the Conservative Party has also changed a great deal of its character; it is far more representative of the UK as it is peopled today, in every way. That has been difficult for many traditional Tories, but if it hadn't begun to change it most certainly will have died out.

Now I hear you say that Cameron doesn't want to leave the EU. He doesn't....at least he prefers first of all to see if he can reform the EU and our relationship with it. If he/we can, then he has made it clear he wants to stay in a reformed EU. If he cannot get any change, then when the referendum is put to the British people, they will likely vote to leave the EU and he will be voting to do the same thing too.

No major party leader and no party has been as honest and straight with the British people about our relationship with Europe. Anyone listening to Cameron's significant speech on Europe can doubt his intent and commitment to giving us all a choice.

The crucial point is that he wants to give us a choice WHEN such a choice exists.

At present it does not. We haven't tried to create change yet. Once the German election is over then we will see more clarity around the future shape of the EU. Barrosso has put his cards on the table recently, and Merkel if re-elected will also do the same. She has appeared to be favourable to Cameron's ideas so far, in that she accepts change is necessary.

Now is not the wise time to jump out of the EU. We need to be patient and see how the landscape ahead of us emerges, and then take steps and make a decision.

The decision we make will not be a simple one. The same is true of the one the Scots will be making in 2014.

Emotional, irrational steps could be very dangerous and betray the people of Britain. I think Cameron is a more canny man than most give him credit for. And we must not forget that we have yet to see the 'full monty' with Cameron - why, I hear you say? The reason is that he has not been able to be his real Tory-PM self, because he is held back by the dead weight of a coalition with the LibDems. The reasons why we may be in this territory have been well debated over the past 3 years on ConservativeHome. We are where we are, and must plan for the future based on the facts on the ground today, not distracted unduly by how we got here.

Ukip may be a growing lobby power, but it isn't going to win a general election. In fact I'm willing to bet that they will fail to win any Westminster seats at the next election - you heard it here first. But they may lose some.....for the Conservatives. If that happens to enough effect, we will have a Labour or LibLab government. At that point Ukip will have delivered the most Europhile (and hopeless) government that will be on offer, and the UK will then be further from a Referendum and Ukip's objectives than before.

Nigel Farage has been a great character in politics to date - he has enlivened debate, amused and entertained Britons up and down the country, and whilst he is serious about his aims, he is also seen by many as a bit of a joke, even if that is an unfair portrayal. Just look at the cartoon figure that appears across the media (which I already hear people say is biased....well Private Eye isn't, it holds no brief for any party).

So, 2015 - Tory win (just). Labour lose, LibDem hold with reduced MPs, and Ukip confusing the electoral psephologists predictions up and down the country, but without any MPs, even though they may have gained a number of MEPs (if that isn't irony I don't know what is) in 2014.

Come back in May 2015 to see how accurate Maredudd's prophesy is.