gdp's Comments

Caracas Chronicles : Subverting Chavismo\'s Discursive Standard

Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:16:49 +0000

Less than 30% of the population has Internet access and the rural-urban border is very hard to break in Venezuela.

Caracas Chronicles : Subverting Chavismo\'s Discursive Standard

Wed, 9 Dec 2009 22:15:05 +0000

Juan, I think the key thing is to challenge chavismo to have an open debate under conditions anyone but a hard-core asine chavista would not accept, i.e. conditions many humble poor supporter of Hugo considers fine (and I know them). We know Hugo et alia don't want any debate but THAT IS NOT THE POINT. What Vargas Llosa did for a few days just in a land that is not his and for which he has less interests than us was very effective, Hugo lost face with many. Venezuelans don't get it: is not about Hugo and his hardcore guys, it is about all those ninis and decent poor who still support Hugo. We should do that unless we consider we are not really capable of debating either. We should challenge time after time for those debates and show to the general public that that is the norm in other countries and say that Hugo is a bloody chicken.

Caracas Chronicles : Dictatorship means never having to say \"the reason is...\"

Tue, 8 Dec 2009 19:23:33 +0000

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNvQo5ETm6c&fe... Here you see the christian democrat (Angela Merkel), Westerwelle (FDP, liberal in European sense), SPD, Grünen and die Linke with Gysi.

Caracas Chronicles : Dictatorship means never having to say \"the reason is...\"

Tue, 8 Dec 2009 17:39:28 +0000

Risking to gallenize it: I do think it is a pity Venezuelans do not have very good examples around. I wish they could see the kind of debates people follow in Germany, the Benelux or Scandinavia...heck, in the UK for that matter. Nothing perfect, but there is a more developed culture of debating. You can see a conservative chancellor discussing next to the social democrat leader next to a liberal, next to an ecologist next to a communist.

Caracas Chronicles : Dictatorship means never having to say \"the reason is...\"

Tue, 8 Dec 2009 15:52:40 +0000

Are you Venezuelan? What revolution are you talking about? So: can Venezuelans of all political colours go to your blog and expose their ideas and debate? Somehow I never see links from chavista blogs to non-chavista blogs and sites, but I do see links the other way around. Isn't that telling?

Caracas Chronicles : The three-legged stool

Tue, 8 Dec 2009 10:17:52 +0000

I DON'T OPPOSE IT, but first: I am not talking about me. I am saying so far there is like a fourth of Venezuelans who are living off the others' free money and they will sternly oppose it and in fact lots of their services and industries (imports etc) would collapse very fast if the system were to be implemented in any other than a very slow process. This system sucks and needs to be replaced, but it can't overnight. There are just too many middle to upper-middle class Venezuelans who are NOT willing to sacrifice anything. They must, but we cannot force that right away.

Caracas Chronicles : The three-legged stool

Mon, 7 Dec 2009 22:08:54 +0000

Las tenía en la garganta, thanks to a relative who asked me to help there. I had gone to Venezuela to sign for the Firmazo (so I am in La Lista). I have got the details of other times from friends and relatives: Salas did not send enough people to pick up the actas in many places (caimanera) and witnesses went away after a while and after so many threats. San Diego's screening went smoothly as Scarone was organizing things there (he is the mayor). Still: in San Diego the local police had no weapons last time (the government had taken them away for some days), there were threats in the centrers close to the slums. In 2006 a small public health centre in San Diego was burnt down by chavistas on the night of the election, so was the municipality's big Pesebre. In the wee hours after the local election in 2008 people went to the cne centre in Valencia to demand the recognition of Salas and chavistas almost fired on them. Only at the last moment did the military intervened. People I know were there. It can be scarier than many think in the capital...and that is in areas where we have relatively speaking more people as in Valencia and neighbouring areas. I don't know how it is in, say, wee towns around Tocuyo or Parapara. I have done what I can in Europe as well, but here we are privileged, the worst we got was that the embassy called the police. Still, the police took OUR side, not least because the embassy guys are really cavemen. I remember I asked the police: and why did the embassy ask for so many of you? Do they think these people (60% women) are going to attack them? They smiled and said: well, we can protect YOU from them. Well, even in Europe it can sometimes get a little bit nasty, although nothing big: http://www.noticias24.com/actualidad/noticia/8225... We need more people and better organization for the rural and poor areas in Venezuela.

Caracas Chronicles : The three-legged stool

Mon, 7 Dec 2009 20:01:14 +0000

Torres, Right now most people living in Santa Fe, caurimare and places like that are living on more than 2USD a day. And even though I know of some exceptions, the vast majority of them are not earning those 200USD by exporting technology or producing really something in Venezuela, but buy sucking from the petro-tit before the others do it. Although your proposal would be in principle fairer than what we have now, it simply does not include any project for generating wealth. So you will be basically redistributing the wealth we have. The problem, though, is that 1) Venezuela is NOT rich and 2) those who are living off others will oppose the idea by all means. So a more complex solution is needed: redistribution has to be accompanied and actually preceeded by some extra wealth generation. Eso es lo que creo yo.

Caracas Chronicles : The three-legged stool

Mon, 7 Dec 2009 18:57:59 +0000

Yes. I suppose he has to focus on cleaning up the places where he left finger prints.

Caracas Chronicles : The three-legged stool

Mon, 7 Dec 2009 17:41:08 +0000

There is enough to figure it out. Just look at the paper trails of Hugo's daddy not working (and he was allowed to try time after time), just look at the chavista governor who tore to pieces his paper trail because it did not work first time (something for which oppos were detained), just look at how the paper trail did not work for Aristóbulo...and then there are the inconcistencies in many places that the cne did not reply. There are other hints. Any politician in the world can say his party is the most popular and all, but if one says most registered voters in place X actually SIGNED A PETITION in support of the president and that is a lie, said politician is a criminal. So, yes, I can say there was fraud, but we don't know the degree of fraud. By the way, in Germany and the Netherlands they just showed how unreliable electronic systems are (and we know our paper trail is rubbish) and even if there was no proven fraud they are going back to paper. End of topic. John, where is it you are doing "postdoc research"?

Caracas Chronicles : The three-legged stool

Mon, 7 Dec 2009 15:19:06 +0000

Jray, I think the thing about a plan or at least some vision beyond "libertad" is needed. Yulibey and Henry from Quibor or Barinitas, even from Güigüe or Vargas haven't been able to look at Quico's blog or at my blog or any other blog for that matter. They don't even speak English. Most people in Venezuela don't actually have connection to the Internet and most who do are not looking at a plan but at "Venezolanas cachondas" or "Venta de autos" pages or "how to get your cadivi dollars out". Most people in Venezuela don't have cable TV, most only see people from the capital when they themselves go to the capital or when their paths cross at some tank station on the road to Morrocoy. Still: most people do care a bit or two for a plan, at least some vision other than "fuera ya".

Caracas Chronicles : The three-legged stool

Mon, 7 Dec 2009 14:50:13 +0000

There are many places where we did not have the actas. There were also many places where we did have the actas but the local caudillos did not support the humble people doing the real job and the actas ended up as toilet paper after no one picked them up and no one knew who took them home. Remember a binary file and a dll are just black boxes, even if some sociology graduate working for the EU or the carter center thinks they are fine because he was present at a demo where he got 10 times out of 10 the same result on the paper trail as on the screen.

Caracas Chronicles : The three-legged stool

Mon, 7 Dec 2009 12:45:20 +0000

Juan, In the case of Russia, it was obvious the commies had taken power by force. In the case of chile, generals were murderers but had this weird "honesty" (it was OK to throw people from helicopters but not OK to cheat so obviously for the referendum). In the case of Venezuela we first and foremost need to be sure the cheating is very very very very very very very very very clear for all to see and for the military to hide. We do NOT have the logistics just yet or even the discipline to guarantee the voting and keep track of the actas in a lot of places. Outside a few areas in the capital, in Northern Valencia and perhaps Maracaibo most witnesses took the actas home after the elections/referenda because the local caudillos were not organized, because people were afraid of driving too much at 2am in poor/rural areas and much more and at the end people did not have the proofs of anything. They won't be telling you that. I know lots of people who did the real job of counting and defending votes in slums and rural areas in carabobo and it is not better in Apure or Barinas, in Guárico or Yaracuy: it is risky, there is little support, it is mostly very chaotic (there are some exceptions). I myself was a witness in Tocuyito, Southwest of Valencia, in 2003. I saw chavista bikers riding with their weapons in front of us, just next to the military who were supposed to keep order in the area, we had to engage in a car race to outsmart chavistas and prevent them from following us (we used several cars to confuse them about who was taking the actas where). After that I have been in Europe but I got stories from first hand from people who had to keep track of the actas and all in Los Guayos, Southern Valencia and so on. Only in San Diego was everything well organized. And my state is one of the most heavily urbanized areas of Venezuela and one with lots of students and all.

Caracas Chronicles : Mental health break for the weekend

Sun, 6 Dec 2009 10:20:32 +0000

Bolívar is definitely one of the most pathetic personality cults there are. It has to do with the whole manipulation by a series of dictators and "presidents" (particularly Guzmán and Gómez, now Hugo), but also with a widespread ignorance about history by Venezuelans. The history books Venezuelans come in contact with are specially bad, even if most history books in schools worldwide tend to paint the country's own history in too rosy terms

Caracas Chronicles : Mental health break for the weekend

Sun, 6 Dec 2009 10:15:20 +0000

Thanks. I will check out the quotes about race. They seem to be in conflict with others I have read and heard from him.

Caracas Chronicles : Mental health break for the weekend

Sun, 6 Dec 2009 00:04:39 +0000

As if people payed much attention to Uslar on that or anything, anyway.

Caracas Chronicles : Rules for Subversives

Fri, 4 Dec 2009 22:37:33 +0000

Well said. I suggest everyone to read what people did in India to get rid of the British rule. We cannot use the same measures, but we can learn from the general principles

Caracas Chronicles : Rules for Subversives

Fri, 4 Dec 2009 22:00:20 +0000

We must also beware the Belarussian trap. Now everybody in Europe sees Luka for what he is, a dictator, and yet he is solidly in place. I have spoken quite some with my Belorussian friends on this. One of the issues (lots more) is that the opposition is rather bland and are seen by most people as some cheap imitators of the USAIDS-Soros-backed movements in Yugoslavia, Georgia, Ukraine. We need to be more original and more bound to Venezuela, imitating less the recipes from abroad.

Caracas Chronicles : Rules for Subversives

Fri, 4 Dec 2009 17:06:51 +0000

I agree. I think people here don't want to spoil their white trousers by getting off non urban areas or the like.

Caracas Chronicles : Rules for Subversives

Fri, 4 Dec 2009 16:04:05 +0000

That reminds me of a group of drunkards telling a friend of mine at a German festival "you are provoking us" just because he was not drinking.