KeenButClueless

KeenButClueless

64p

212 comments posted · 2 followers · following 0

2 years ago @ Jock Reynolds - EMERGENCY PODCAST | Co... · 5 replies · +2 points

Might be Cameron on the bench to cover Grundy. Maybe more of a chance to play anyway if they cram 3 games in 2 weeks and need to give Grundy a rest

2 years ago @ Jock Reynolds - TEAM REVEAL: Patch · 0 replies · +1 points

Yes, you are right. I was trying to point out that we would tolerate missing a game or two from some players, yet we are seeing this as a reason not to pick Houston.

2 years ago @ Jock Reynolds - TEAM REVEAL: Patch · 2 replies · +1 points

If you really want McCluggage, then you could consider getting rid of J Kelly. Bring Starcevich down. This brings Pickett onfield. Seems a waste to not have Pickett onfield - it’s like looking the proverbial gift horse in the mouth. Green is probably too expensive for a bench spot.

With the 717k you can get Docherty and have 282k to sit on the head of one of those rookies to turn into a breakout. For example on top of Noble to get Houston, or on top of Ash to get Weller.

I don’t share the concern over Houston’s bye. If I said right now you’d get 20 games each out if Whitfield and Kelly, people would unhesitatingly pick them, but somehow only 21 games from Houston is causing jitters.

2 years ago @ Jock Reynolds - View all the TEAM REVE... · 0 replies · +1 points

I am basing this on the analysis that showed that most players prime scoring years are up to 26. After that they tend to decline. When I look at Martin go 2017 117, 2018 103 and 2019 100, I see the same trend observed here. You may be right - he will probably defy the trend and head up again, but you can’t pick em all, so you need something to apply as a filter.

2 years ago @ Jock Reynolds - TEAM REVEAL: Damo · 2 replies · +1 points

I have had a fairly typical preseason. My great first draft team has been compromised and compromised to the point that it is at best a B team and almost unrecognisable from where it started.

I have really enjoyed the age analysis, which made it easy to draw lines through Fyfe, Danger and Martin. I focussed a lot on reliability, yet I have Whitfield in my team, because I am more scared of what will happen if he does play a lot of games, rather than whether he will miss. I have hated D1. I have good reasons not to pick any of them, although Laird is starting to look appealing.

I am fatally attracted to a Ruck/Forward swing because it just seems so logical- rucks score more, and you need to have cover if one goes down for a week or two. But in truth, it’s been a virtually wasted pick each year. Last year Lycett nearly made the pick worthwhile, but it meant I didn’t pick Dunkley. This year it’s Ceglar. You have already predicted it will end badly when Big Boy comes back into the ruck. And you are probably right.

I think tagging will be back in 2020, so all our midfield premos will take a hit, and we should be able to buy them cheaper during the season. Even if I am right, doesn’t help too much in framing a side, because you need midfield premos, and trying to predict who will be tagged is a lottery.

So I have a B grade team. Too many mid priced and a few people I don’t want. I have seriously toyed with a full on mid priced team, because at the moment I have 8 premos, 2 fallen premos, and 4 potential breakouts. Plus expensive rookies. So rather than a watered down GNR, maybe full blown mid priced is an option.

I do hundreds of hours in the preseason on my team, but for some reason end up at this point where I look at it and wonder what the hell has all that research and tinkering been for on a team that looks like that!

Good luck for the season Derek. Let’s hope your risky R2 and my fatal attraction to a Ruck/Forward swing pay off!

2 years ago @ Jock Reynolds - TEAM REVEAL: Barron Vo... · 0 replies · +3 points

Nice team Barron.

I am worried a little on McAsey and Cumming’s job security. I think Doedee takes McAsey’s spot. If these two switched to Noble and Starcevich, then you could upgrade Martin to Whitfield.

Not sure on your cash, but it might even be a Danger down to Oliver and you could take Wingard to Whitfield instead, leaving Whitfield and Martin at F1 and F2.

2 years ago @ Jock Reynolds - TEAM REVEAL: Damo · 4 replies · +3 points

Hi Derek

I know you hate them, but you might need to bite the bullet on an expensive rookie or two, as I fear that you are looking down the barrel of too many not being selected in Round 1.

AFL site did their projections of each teams best 22, and from that the following rookies you have picked weren’t in the teams

Watson Gould

Robertson Rivers Mahoney Sharp

Conroy

Of those 7, I will be loop, and you might get 2 or 3, but sitting on the cheaper rookies and waiting for them to appear might really slow your cash generation.

A possible way is Sicily to Bradshaw. Bring in BZerk. Budarick to the mid bench for Sharp and Rivers to Green.

2 years ago @ Jock Reynolds - TEAM REVEAL: Damo · 1 reply · +1 points

Nice team Damo

Are you concerned with your bye structure? At 4-7-3, it feels like a round 13 problem

2 years ago @ Jock Reynolds - View all the TEAM REVE... · 5 replies · +3 points

Beautiful structure

11 genuine premos plus 2 fallen premos.

Bye structure is slightly off. Changing Danger to a round 14 premo levels it off nicely. Personally I think his scores will go down this year, not only with his advancing age and declining output, but also as Geelong potentially decline. Looking at the ages of your squad, it’s really only him and Martin looking a little past their prime. Martin is probably still going to be top 6 forwards, so is a more certain selection than a breakout, but is possibly overs. Danger maybe not top 10 mid, and again overs.

Forward rookies are concerning and would be the only other weak spot if this team. Having said that, almost every preseason I feel like that but mostly it works out. You can sacrifice a great premo structure by going a little bit more mid price - will make the rookie side look a little less flimsy, but may never get full premium.

I have gone a little more mid priced, but when I look at such a good side like yours, I might need to rethink.

Good job.

2 years ago @ Jock Reynolds - The Injury Report · 1 reply · +2 points

I read that he was in rehab group this week. He was certainly on my radar, but might be a later rookie. Not round 1. Worth checking Freo’s early draw. Many Sunday games, so might also be a loophole option early if you have a playing R3.