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6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Soubry - "I don... · 3 replies · +1 points

They are displaying their awareness of political and economic reality. They at least have the guts to say it. Many others know the reality but are too weak (May) or very happy to peddle the lie (Johnson, Gove) so they can play the victim when reality bites. Of course this plays out on the other side as well as ours, which only reinforces the situation to our ultimate cost as a nation.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Clark - arrange... · 0 replies · +1 points

What we are seeing is reality coming to bear on imaginary futures. There is no way of leaving the EU in the way that many seen to think, without a fundamental change in our economy. Change that will have many victims. People didn't vote for that, in the main. Some on this forum will say they will accept any damage, but that is self indulgent nonsense.

There will be an arrangement. We will be subject to EU rules post-brexit. And we will have no say in how they are managed. We have painted ourselves into a corner. And it is the minority that has bullied this honourable but weak PM into it.

Disagree if you like, but then watch as it comes to pass.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Trade talks may collap... · 0 replies · +1 points

Of course - I have been too busy to waste my breath on this recently but this has followed my predictions pretty much to the letter. We were told there would not be a transition, of course there will be. We were told the ECJ would have no remit after 2019, of course they will. We were told we would owe no money to the EU, of course we do.

I am telling you now, that the transition period will be more than 2 years. We will remain in the CU/SM during that period. I am telling you now that we will be highly aligned with the EU after that, indefinitely. We will not be able to strike new trade deals of any importance.

We will be subject to all rules and regulations and have no say in changing them. We will elect no MEPs to the EU parliament in 2019. We are turning our political system upside down to become a rule taker, rather than a rule maker.

Business will feel better for this deal, but will remain on the back foot with regard to investment for the next 2-3 years, except for investment in the EU zone where they look to protect their supply chain position.

Brexiters, you were sold an impossible future. Enjoy your blue passport when you get it, because I tell you one more thing, when it is finally renewed after 10 years, your next one will say 'EU Citizen' on it, just as your current passport does.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - May's Brexit negotiati... · 2 replies · +1 points

Paul, what on earth are you talking about? Firstly, the things you mention at the start of the article are not likely to stop or cause the softest Brexit - they are likely to cause a disastrous hard Brexit unless we end up asking for an extension to Article 50. This would be politically damaging for the government as we would have to put up candidates in the EU elections and be a direct contravention of what May has been saying since she became PM. Unfortunately I think this has been pretty inevitable since a) the foolish election announcement which wasted precious time, and b) the lack of what you talk about at the end of your piece.

Paul, what negotiating position are you referring to? The 'fundamentals' you refer to are fine but they are not a negotiating position. We have singularly failed to explain to the EU or our own citizens and businesses what the future relationship should look like. What will VAT triangulation be like, what will the rights of citizens be, what about the many treaties we signed as members of the EU, will we continue to be signatories? What is our expectation, what on earth do we want? We seem to be waiting for the EU to make us an offer on all these things based on some simplistic mutterings about unique deals. We didn't make this clear before the referendum and that was criminally negligent. The fact that we still can't articulate a future position in detail is quite frankly disgraceful.

Your claim that the PM's negotiating position is doing well is built on so many fallacies I cannot begin to understand where you pulled this idea from.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - James Arnell: Introduc... · 3 replies · +1 points

There will be a deal. But it will not come by 2019. There will be a transition. The longer this goes on the more likely it is that the transition will in fact be an extension of article 50 timescales. This will mean we elect MEPs in 2019. It will be tough politically. But it is partly because we called an unnecessary election after triggering art. 50. The usual suspects will call foul, treachery and say that this is a back door to remaining. But they are the people who have caused this impasse by trying to rush a very complex process. I am frankly disgusted that a Conservative government should make businesses plan for very costly multiple contingencies. Where have we gone as a party that business and economic management have fallen so low in our priorities?

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - James Arnell: Introduc... · 0 replies · +1 points

This is a falsehood and denigrates a great achievement by Mrs Thatcher. Maastricht was a step too far but she would not be allowing us to endanger our economy by leaving the single market.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Iain Dale: My listener... · 1 reply · +1 points

I have come to believe that Mrs May should resign. She is in the Gordon Brown zone of not being able to do anything without it being viewed in a negative light. There are very few ways out of that, and it is having an effect of her mental and physical health, as far as I can tell. But the alternatives that presented themselves when Cameron waltzed away were worse. If she is to stand down I hope that a candidate with more ability than ego can be persuaded to stand. I think Javid could be that man.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Iain Dale: My listener... · 5 replies · +1 points

But the question about how she would vote in a referendum today was unfair. She voted remain but has to work with the result, as we all do. She could have looked at the work that Liam Fox has done, and realised her error in the vote, but didn't. She could have looked at the work that David Davis has done, realised her error in the vote, but didn't. She could have listened to all the business leaders telling her of the impact of leaving the EU and realised her error in the vote, but didn't. Given that she is taking a strident tone with the EU, it would have been the easiest thing in the world to say she would vote leave. But she didn't.

She knows leaving in the way we are doing it is a dangerous and possibly disastrous path. She's stuck in an impossible position. So, as a supporter, you should not have asked that question.

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - A reshuffle - and the ... · 1 reply · +1 points

May has picked housing as her key theme, and I suspect a part of this strategy is to benefit from Sajid Javid's excellent work on that area. He can be an important force backing her and is probably the most likely successor as leader from the current Cabinet. Would Javid get the backing of the Party as a whole?

6 years ago @ http://www.conservativ... - Our survey. As the Con... · 1 reply · +1 points

I have been supportive of Mrs May staying on to the end of the Article 50 exit negotiations. But, having just watched her performance on the Marr show, I am afraid she has to go as soon as possible.