The ollster who predicted the 1992 win (the one who coined the phrase shy Tory supporter) predicts a Conservative majority of 75. Last time I looked Electoral Calculus were saying a majority of 98. I'd be more impressed with the campaign if Corbyn was getting a pasting over the fact his figures don't add up rather than what he might have said or not said regarding idiotic people like Chavez et al.
The link to feedback from the front line is to a tweet which as far as I could tell was dated 19th May. Have we any bang up to date feedback from the midlands and the north?
In line with other comments made here, I wondered if you knew something the rest of us didn't? With the falling poll numbers someone needs to grab a hold of the campaign and start doing something, like showing the holes in Labour's calculations, and capitalising on the advantage May has on security matters by articulating some more strategic measures on anti-terrorism. It might do no harm to to remind people that Corbyn couldn't be Prime Minister without the help of someone whose stated aim is to break up the country, and reminding people that an approach to brexit negotiations based on the approach favoured by Corbyn/Sturgeon/Faron would see us screwed into the ground. They haven't learned the lesson of what happened to Cameron. There's nothing that a bit of a relaunch and a big push on seats made competitive through brexit shouldn't solve at least in terms of winning the election.
The Spectator says Labour is resuming campaigning on Friday. I was half-amused to see that one of the few celebrities backing Labour, Maxine Peake, has called for a coup if the Conservatives win the election, but in the light of events in Manchester I think in retrospect it's not funny at all. The left seems to have a violent streak.
UKIP are launching their manifesto tomorrow. Labour also want to start cmmpaigning at the latest by the weekend. Couple of questions: wasn't some independent thinktank supposed to be saying whether Labour's manifesto pledges added up financially and has that happened? Also any more indication on whether the tightening of the polls at the weekend was anything to worry about?
The EU does have an unfortunate habit of putting doctrine before common sense; ask the Greeks! So it wouldn't surprise me if despite all the concerns of the German and French business community who want pragmatism to prevail, Kaiser Angela and her stooge in Paris adopt the Berlin Wall approach to EU membership and decide that those who exercise their democratic right to leave are made to pay a heavy price for it. All the more reason to put Theresa May in on June 8 as the only one with enough guts to deal with these anti-democrats.
I put my old Crewe and Nantwich code into mynearestmarginal.com, the constituency doesn't even come up even though the Conservative majority in the 2015 general election went down by 4,000 votes or so to a little over 3,000. Weaver Vale is close enough, but it ends up in places like Bolton West for goodness sake; what are they playing at? Meanwhile I assume the Conservatives will show up in Crewe, the brexit card plays well there.
I'm originally from a typical old Labour constituency of the sort Daniel describes (Crewe and Nantwich) which Gordon Brown managed to donate to the Conservatives and comments I hear from people back there confirm the disconnect between classic old Labour voters (like my family) and the party under Corbyn, but remarks about Labour going under are a bit premature. Such things were being said of the Conservatives not many years ago, and a lot of people in the age-range in which Labour are ahead in the polls have registered to vote this time, so some caution about election results and the end of parties is required.
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