IntenseDebate - Fernando

16 minutes ago @ http://www.conservativ... - LISTEN: The Moggcast. ... · 0 replies · +1 points

No. Look at the progression in the polls. May did not lose a 20% lead. Labour wiped out a 20% deficit. Labour support shot up. Anyone who was fearful of a hard Brexit rallied behind Corbyn despite his obvious failings.

May was a poor campaigner but our support barely moved. The important factor was Labour's hoovering up the opposition vote.

23 minutes ago @ http://www.conservativ... - LISTEN: The Moggcast. ... · 0 replies · +1 points

There of course is the problem. Brexit is what the ERG describe as Brexit and nothing else will suffice. It is rather like the French monarchists in the 1870s who looked like a shoe in following the defeat by Prussia in 1870, but who couldn’t agree on the type of monarchy they wanted. Their time past, the world moved on and France became a Republic.

30 minutes ago @ http://www.conservativ... - LISTEN: The Moggcast. ... · 0 replies · +1 points

Interesting you link the BP to developments in Italy, because Farage is a figure very familiar on the Continent. It is easy to pick examples from France. There was the cult of the enormously popular General Boulanger in the 1880s with his alliance of the radical working classes and nationalists. Even more similar are the followers of Poujade in the 1950s. He had 400k members at its peak and policies which blamed French ills on the Polytechnique elite and foreign influence.

They fail because when you have reduced politics to a cacophony of squabbling factions all with differing opinions, the voters soon realise that you need grown-ups in power who can work together and compromise and actually get things achieved.

What manifesto is Farage’s coalition of Communists, libertarians and traditional Conservatives ever going to agree. As the Marr interview showed he doesn’t want to discuss such matters.

52 minutes ago @ http://www.conservativ... - LISTEN: The Moggcast. ... · 3 replies · +1 points

You are learning the wrong lesson from the 2017 election. May won 42% of the vote, more than Cameron ever managed. Record numbers turned out for the party.

But that was not the significant result. Despite being led by someone with a record of sympathy for terrorist organisations, with no record of legislative achievements and a manifesto that returned the country to the 1970s, 40% of the country pinched their noses and voted for Labour. They eschewed the Greens and the Libdems, they moved away from the SNP in Scotland. They did so because they feared a Tory hard Brexit. They might have preferred Remain but they were prepared to accept the Labour policy of protecting access to the single market and customs union.

The 2017 election showed a willingness to accept a soft Brexit that protected trade and jobs and minimised economic disruption. The ERG failed to appreciate this and preferred to scupper Brexit rather than accept any thing less pure than their version.

1 hour ago @ http://www.conservativ... - LISTEN: The Moggcast. ... · 2 replies · +1 points

So Rees-Mogg might revert to his previous position and join others in the ERG to scupper Brexit.

I can well imagine his position if he had been around at the time of Disraeli’s Reform Act: this isn’t universal suffrage; it’s a watered down version which keeps the aristocracy in charge. When it came to the “fancy franchises” he would have been splitting blood.
As Disraeli realised, but Rees-Mogg never will, successful political settlements rely on compromise.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Soubry explains... · 1 reply · +1 points

At least the SDP added impetus to the Alliance and the Liberals benefited. What can CUK offer the Libdems? They have no USP, no big names and no presence in local government. The Libdems could well have 50+ MPs after the next election. The remains of CUK will be gobbled up.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - WATCH: Stewart says th... · 2 replies · +1 points

This Parliament is nearing its end. Rory is trying to get a deal accepted. Eventually, they will have to accept that there is no majority for leaving without a deal either in this Parliament nor in the country at large. There is no majority either for a soft Brexit, which doesn’t appeal to Leavers nor Remainers. The latter see that time is on their side.

The inevitable outcome will be a revocation of article 50, bolstered by a referendum, and an election where the only victor will be parties committed to ending Brexit.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The Johnson hype is he... · 0 replies · +1 points

I’m inured to the party suffering a defeat worse than 1997. The gainer will be the Libdems who’ll pick up 70 or so seats in England. Our best hope is a period of reflection and renewal in opposition. At my time of life I may not see another Conservative government.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The Johnson hype is he... · 19 replies · +1 points

The return of Farage is the death knell of Brexit. He was kept away from the official Leave campaign in the referendum for a very good reason. That campaign was won by mainstream politicians like Gove, Johnson and Stuart. Farage is a divisive figure.

Like UKIP he will do well in elections that don’t matter. His party list has all the inconsistency of the Brexit campaign writ large. It is all very well having a slate including communists and traditional conservatives but what sort of Brexit do they want. What are to be our relations with our main trading partner? What is the solution to the NI border issue? The same boring issues which have dominated this Parliament won’t go away.

The rise of the BP puts Brexit back into the category of right-wing obsession.

1 day ago @ http://www.conservativ... - The Johnson hype is he... · 1 reply · +1 points

Expect more surprises on this front. Johnson is the preferred candidate from the Leave side for those who backed Remain in the referendum. He is seen as the Talleyrand of Brexit rather than Raab or the Robespierre like Steve Baker and the Jacobins in the ERG.

Johnson’s past is littered with support for the single market. Can anyone doubt that if his career ambitions had been met by supporting Remain that is what he would have done.....and nearly did.

Johnson’s Leave credentials and renowned flexibility will provide the cover to ditch Brexit. He will provide the healing balm when we go into opposition.

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