en-us https://www.intensedebate.com/users/755609 Comments by EricPeterson http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100513.htm#IDComment75294944 Jason, I'm wondering about your use of only the closing prices in those charts above. The intraday low on the futures last Thursday was about 50 points lower than the close. If you used full charts (5-minute or tick) instead of just closing-value charts, the retracement from last Thursday has already blown way past 62%. To Robert: Most of us here are very experienced investors (I've traded stocks, OEX options, futures, options on futures, etc. for 26 years). You're welcome to post your opinions, but please don't put it in the form of advice such as "come on people", ok? Thu, 13 May 2010 17:33:10 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100513.htm#IDComment75294944 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100427.htm#IDComment70941883 Jason, you need a new indicator: the number of comments on your Morning Reports! :) Yesterday must have set a record for number of comments (mostly about how the contrarian indicators just aren't working) and then today we have the biggest down-day since the February lows! Tue, 27 Apr 2010 21:31:29 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100427.htm#IDComment70941883 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100406.htm#IDComment66214025 Jason, you commented that Rydex traders are "shoveling assets into the sector funds" because 85% of sector funds have assets above their 50-day average. But considering that almost every sector has been rallying in price for almost 50 days, couldn't that 85% stat be accomplished without any trading at all by Rydex traders, but just by price appreciation alone? Tue, 6 Apr 2010 13:24:27 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100406.htm#IDComment66214025 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100326.htm#IDComment64340482 Bill, that seems to be a lot to infer about the future from one trading day. :) Sat, 27 Mar 2010 14:03:39 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100326.htm#IDComment64340482 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100326.htm#IDComment64209331 Very thought-provoking table of stats for 21-day tops. It might be interesting to compare the numbers with any random day. The table says all 4 indicators were present on only 20% of the tops. But if for any random day those 4 indicators are present only 10% of the time for example, then that says a day that has those 4 indicators is two times more likely to be a top than any random day. Maybe not helpful for trading decisions, but interesting to know. Fri, 26 Mar 2010 15:33:06 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100326.htm#IDComment64209331 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100324.htm#IDComment63861096 Jason, you wrote: "Rydex mutual fund traders have felt more comfortable putting money to work, with nearly 80% of sectors now enjoying greater-than-average asset flows." and "just under 80% of them are showing assets that are greater than the average of the past 50 days." Does this really mean that Rydex traders are putting more money to work? Can't the increase in assets be mostly attributed to the fact that the prices have risen? For example, say that Rydex prohibited all purchases and sales of sector funds during the last 50 days. I bet the assets in those funds would be above their 50-day average for almost every sector, without any action at all by Rydex traders. Wed, 24 Mar 2010 15:09:27 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100324.htm#IDComment63861096 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100316.htm#IDComment62442412 I have a basic timing model based on a weighted average of my ratings of the indicators mentioned above, plus some other indicators from other sources. It didn't go negative on the market until Friday, so it hasn't been negative during the recent multi-week run-up. But it's now much more negative than it was Friday, and it can't get much more negative with the indicators it includes. I've offset all my long stock and mutual fund positions this week with short E-mini futures and short ETFs so that I won't lose anything during a correction. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 19:29:37 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100316.htm#IDComment62442412 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100316.htm#IDComment62414264 Jason, I'm curious why you aren't advocating a small short position at this point. The most popular indicators are all very bearish: Dumb-Smart is at 29%, exceeding the 25% bearish mark. Indicator Extremes are almost in very bearish territory. Rydex Beta Chase is in the red zone. Rydex Bull/Bear Spread was most recently in the red zone. The STEM model is in the red zone for the first time since mid-October. The next 4 or 5 days have a lot of red bars in the seasonality charts at the bottom of the home page. It doesn't seem there could be much more of a confluence of bearish readings in those indicators. The only argument against a short position seems to be the upward momentum. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 16:06:07 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100316.htm#IDComment62414264 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100311.htm#IDComment61551791 Dumb-Smart is about to flash a sell signal. The data for 2008-2009 suggest that on days when Dumb minus Smart is 26% or greater, the SP500's average daily return is negative. Right now it's at 25%. (Readings close to 26% but below it were not particularly bearish). Fri, 12 Mar 2010 00:04:49 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100311.htm#IDComment61551791 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100226.htm#IDComment58801522 Jason, I read every word of your Morning Reports every day because they are always very interesting, and I have a small suggestion. Often the text in the Intermediate Term Outlook and the Equity Market Indicators is unchanged from the previous day. In those cases it would save time to not re-read those. Is it possible to put an asterisk or other mark at the top of those sections to indicate there is something new in the text? Fri, 26 Feb 2010 13:49:54 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100226.htm#IDComment58801522 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100224.htm#IDComment58518770 Jason, maybe the British Pound is a better long situation than the Swiss Franc. Public opinion on the pound is 27% versus 34% for the Franc. Commitment of traders readings are exceeding the green dashed lines for all three groups (commercials, large speculators, and small traders), while for the franc the readings are not extreme (lying between the green and red lines). The only argument against the pound seems to be that it is not in a long term uptrend. Wed, 24 Feb 2010 17:16:36 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100224.htm#IDComment58518770 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100224.htm#IDComment58515513 Jason, you mentioned there were 21 times with a 1% down market and +0.5 Rydex enthusiasm since 2000. How many times did the opposite occur, with a 1% up market and low enthusiasm? Wed, 24 Feb 2010 16:48:14 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100224.htm#IDComment58515513 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100219.htm#IDComment57675087 I've noticed that too, and studied the numbers in a fair amount of detail. For the past two years, the market does well when the dumb money is more confident than the smart money, and the market does relatively poorly when the smart money is more confident than the dumb money. But the big exception is when the dumb money or the smart money are at extremes (the highest or lowest 10% of readings for those two groups over the past two years). At those times, the dumb money is dumb and the smart money is smart! Fri, 19 Feb 2010 21:13:15 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100219.htm#IDComment57675087 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100217.htm#IDComment57284635 Cash index just means the SP 500 index (as opposed to SP 500 futures contracts). It's available on every financial web site, for example Yahoo Finance. Wed, 17 Feb 2010 16:30:37 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100217.htm#IDComment57284635 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100209.htm#IDComment56171825 On the homepage click on Indicators - Stocks, then Rydex/Proshares, then Sector Asset Flows and you get graphs of the daily Rydex fund prices lined up with the daily asset levels. Or do you want something different? Wed, 10 Feb 2010 12:28:52 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100209.htm#IDComment56171825 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100205.htm#IDComment55494898 Jason, have you ever looked at option premiums as a contrary indicator? I trade futures options, including SP 500 futures options. Right now the SP 500 is trading at about 1060. Looking at the June 900 puts and June 1200 calls is very interesting. The calls are 140 points out of the money and trading at about 8 points, while the puts are 160 points out of the money and trading at about 18! A pretty large discrepancy pointing out the fear and the high price people are willing to pay for puts. Fri, 5 Feb 2010 16:21:53 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100205.htm#IDComment55494898 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100204.htm#IDComment55362721 I've noticed that recently the stock market, the Euro, Crude oil, Copper, and to some extent the grains all move in the same direction each day. It's as if everything is taking its cue from the dollar: Dollar down, everything else up. Dollar up, everything else down (like today). Thu, 4 Feb 2010 19:12:57 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100204.htm#IDComment55362721 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/research_report_20100202.htm#IDComment55103761 Thanks for the stats! The one-week return is clearly worse than an average week, and the one-month looks slightly worse than average. Wed, 3 Feb 2010 00:39:56 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/research_report_20100202.htm#IDComment55103761 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/research_report_20100202.htm#IDComment55081929 A thought-provoking report, thank you. It would also be interesting to see the SP 500 one-week and one-month returns for these 31 cases. I would find that a little easier to interpret than the number of days until the next two-month low. Tue, 2 Feb 2010 22:13:28 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/research_report_20100202.htm#IDComment55081929 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100122.htm#IDComment53430063 I don't know much about Merrill Waves. Are there any objective and unbiased studies that show these waves have statistically significant predictive power? Or is it like Elliot Waves (which I followed for a number of years) where you basically do the wave counting after-the-fact to fit whatever bias you may have towards the market and to show that they "work"? In other words, can a computer algorithm be written to trade Merrill Waves on its own, and do better than buy and hold? I tried with Elliot Waves and it doesn't work. The rules were too open to human interpretation. Fri, 22 Jan 2010 19:50:35 +0000 http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2010/morning_report_20100122.htm#IDComment53430063