gdp's Comments

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Ryan Bourne: The lifting of lockdown. Yes to prudence but no to pessimism. The projections of these

Wed, 17 Feb 2021 22:34:28 +0000

Can you cite a reasonable article which estmates roughly how many of the deaths with COVID are "with covid not OF covid". Or, if you prefer, estimate roughly how many people on average in the UK are who dying with or of COVID who would anyway have died of something else in a year or two - for the latter, here is an attempt by actuaries: https://www.theactuary.com/features/2020/05/07/co... I'm curious that you do cite an article by Simon Elmer of Architects for Social Housing. Is there any reason you do that rather than one by Carl Heneghan and/or Sunetra Gupta, who while, it seems, they are not in the mainstream of science on this, they are epidemiologists? Put bluntly, what are Simon Elmer's qualifications to comment on this? As a reader of - and occasional poster on - ConHome who is probably (more than?) somewhat to the left of the majority on this site, I find it intriguing that you seem to be citing an article by someone who appears to be an architect rather than an epidemiologist or economist, and moreover one who's political views seem more than somewhat to the left of me. https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/simon-elmer/davi... Of course, that doesn't necessarily make them wrong, but it might give you pause for thought. Since I mentioned Sunetra Gupta, and since it appears almost compulsory for a ConHome post to rubbish Neil Ferguson's work, this April 2020 quote might be of interest: "A spokesman for Prof Gupta told The Telegraph: 'Prof Gupta remains friendly with Prof Neil Ferguson and greatly respects his academic work.'" https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8187123/...

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Conservative MPs on when lockdown should end. "We should start on March 8."

Sun, 14 Feb 2021 23:47:58 +0000

Sort of true. But try applying that logic to a critical mass of Uranium 235.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Conservative MPs on when lockdown should end. "We should start on March 8."

Sun, 14 Feb 2021 23:42:35 +0000

Because the part of the population that listens to Talk Radio and responds to its self-selected surveys is unlikely to be representative of the population as a whole, but that does not mean its audience is homogenous.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Julian Gallant: Politics can support the arts without disturbing the artist

Sun, 14 Feb 2021 23:28:44 +0000

To repeat myself: you mean like the film U-571? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U-571_(film)

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Julian Gallant: Politics can support the arts without disturbing the artist

Sun, 14 Feb 2021 23:28:07 +0000

You mean like the film U-571? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U-571_(film)

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Paul Maynard: There are better ways to help low-income families than the Universal Credit uplift

Sun, 14 Feb 2021 23:17:19 +0000

Fortunately. But "wee krankie", and similar, seem to be a relatively popular way for some ConHome posters - but not you? - of referring to the Scottish First minister?

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Paul Maynard: There are better ways to help low-income families than the Universal Credit uplift

Sun, 14 Feb 2021 23:13:05 +0000

That seems correct - I've put some figures in a post below which I believe clearly shows that. My only quibble is whether the merger was a significant factor. Is there any research which suggests the merger was a major factor?

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Paul Maynard: There are better ways to help low-income families than the Universal Credit uplift

Sun, 14 Feb 2021 23:03:03 +0000

I suggest that the decline in Conservative (and associates) vote in Scotland dates from long before 30 years ago (1990): in fact 25 years ago is - very roughly - the end of a long period of decline which arguably dates from about 50 years ago (1960s). I don't see that devolution is a simple explanation of the rise of the SNP, but I'm willing to consider some proper research. Meanwhile, consider the following improper research. Caveat: there may be some copying errors in the following figures, but I believe any errors do not affect the overall picture. 1. The Conservative Party decline in Scottish vote started long before devolution, and has, roughly and eventually, increased somewhat since devolution. 2. The SNP vote has, roughly, increased since 1964, plateauing from 1992 to 2010, which includes over 10 years of devolved government. There is the substantial increase in SNP vote in 2015 to 2019, but what is the evidence that that is due to devolution rather than at last partly to other causes, for example the Con & LibDem coalition? General Elections percentage of votes cast in Scotland Year Con Lab Lib/LD SNP 2019 25 19 10 45 2017 29 27 7 37 ? 2015 15 24 8 50 Lab vote collapse and SNP vote jump 2010 18 42 19 20 2005 16 40 23 18 2001 16 43 16 20 1999 Scottish Parliament 1997 Devolution referendum bottom(-ish) of Con vote long decline 1997 18 46 13 22 1992 26 39 13 22 1987 24 42 19 14 1983 28 35 25 12 1979 31 42 9 17 1974 25 36 8 30 1974 33 37 8 22 1970 38 45 6 11 1966 38 50 7 5 1964 41 49 8 2 1959 47 47 4 1 1955 50 47 2 1 1951 45 48 3 0 1950 45 46 7 0 1945 40 48 6 1

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Bordering on impossible

Wed, 10 Feb 2021 15:49:18 +0000

I am unfamiliar with TalkRadio and Mike Graham. Was the poll self-selected, and if it was how likely is it that it is reasonably representative of the opinions of al, UK adults?

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Bordering on impossible

Wed, 10 Feb 2021 15:34:51 +0000

I've just tried that. It talks about a group of Swedish academics - and others? - spreading information - or if you prefer propaganda - disparaging the Swedish approach to COVID. But that is not necessarily the same thing as being anti-Swedish: if it was a substantial number of clearly right-wing ConservativeHome posters would have to be described as anti-British. Also you say "this website that explains the way the globalists have funded leftwing academics to spread anti-Sweden propaganda and mis-information". I have read the translated article and saw no reference to globalists funding anyone whether or not academics, and whether or not leftwing. But perhaps I missed that bit? Please copy and paste the part of the translated article which justifies that part of your post.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : As the SNP chief executive faces the threat of a perjury investigation, the Salmond fiasco goes from

Tue, 9 Feb 2021 16:40:11 +0000

So: 1. SNP is corrupt, tyrannical, incompetent 2. and at odds with all public opinion Let's assume (in other words I don't necessarily agree) that both those statements are true, and that also true is 3. but they increase their vote every time. 1 & 2 compared with 3 seems more than somewhat intriguing: would you care to give some reasons, preferably substantiated with reasonably verifiable facts, why all 3 hold? For my part, again assuming that 1 & 2 are true, two possibilities - there may be others - are: A. The SNP's competitors in Scotland fail even more on 1 and/or 2. B. A substantial portion of the Scottish electorate - say 40% or more - are mad, or at any rate delusional. A large problem with B is it is in effect saying the voters of Scotland should not be trusted. You might think that - it might even be true, although I suggest it is sufficiently unlikely that it requires a substantial amount of proper evidence - but is it wise to suggest it, not least because said voters might get to hear about it and become even more intransigent. Also, it sounds dangerously like Engels's "false consciousness" theory, which might in some circumstances be roughly correct, but - whether correct or not - is jolly likely to be perceived as patronising and thus be likely to be counter- productive.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Neil O'Brien: Imperfect vaccines, new variants, domestic mutations. Why there must be no rush out of

Mon, 8 Feb 2021 17:37:17 +0000

https://talkradio.co.uk/features/boris-johnson-co... A transcript of an in-depth no-holds barred interview by Julia Hartley-Brewer of Boris Johnson on 11 December 2019. Boris Johnson handles her questions with such skill and copious knowledge - he only slightly stumbles when he admits he hasn't seen all of Love Actually due to lack of time, but magnificently recovers by saying he is "familiar with the basic concept and the fantastic work done by Hugh Grant", and when Julia HB gives him a curve ball by observing he has said he has a Brexit deal which is oven-ready and asks him if he cooks (yes, apparently, and he can also use a microwave - is there no end to his skills?): bloody hell, I wouldn't want to face her incisive questioning - that there is no doubt he could have dealt with an interview with Andrew Neil with equal facility, and that the only reason he couldn't do that was sheer lack of time.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : O'Brien and his critics. Covid sceptics, Covid believers, Covid deniers: cool it.

Fri, 5 Feb 2021 14:37:01 +0000

1. Personally, I do not wish to be kept alive for a few extra months if that means a miserable existence. Neither do I wish to be kept alive for a few extra months at enormous expense. But I would prefer an easy death. Which means grasping the nettle of assisted deaths in the UK, and also the possibly intractable problem of what I would be content with may not be acceptable to someone else. 2. If the choice is between, say, 5 years of distinctly uncomfortable treatment or a fairly quick death, I might well choose the latter. 3. If it's 10 years instead of 5 then I might or might not make a different decision. Again, others may choose differently to me. 4. In general, the older someone is, the more likely they are to have some illnesses, which might or might not be life threatening. 5. The problem with your comment is you seem to be assuming that most COVID-19 related deaths would have died in fairly short order anyway. To put some numbers in this discussion, roughly how many years on average do you think someone with a COVID-19 related death would have lived a reasonable life if they had not been infected by COVID-19? 6. How does your guess in 5 compare with the figures in this link which is an attempt by two actuaries to put a reasonable number on how many years of life have actually been eliminated by COVID-19? https://www.theactuary.com/features/2020/05/07/co...

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Cladding removal means a huge bill. Punishing taxpayers or homeowners is an uncomfortable choice for

Fri, 5 Feb 2021 13:52:54 +0000

As the owner of a first floor leasehold flat in a three floor block, I - nor, I believe, any other flat owner in the block - own the roof, but as far as I am aware under the terms of the leases we are liable for proportionate shares of the costs of repairing or replacing the flat roof as and when required. That does not seem unreasonable to me. The unsafe cladding - or indeed any other unsafe building structure - problem is different, and alas messy, and is not necessarily limited to leasehold properties. For example, suppose a large number of freehold detached, semi-detached, or terraced, houses were built using a method which at the time of building was thought to be safe but later turns out to be dangerous. If that is covered by the housebuilder's guarantee, great (if the housebuilder is still in existence, and won't become bankrupt, or any guarantee insurance can still be used). But if not, and the cost of fixing the problem is too great for most of the houseowners, then what? No easy answers, I suspect.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Patrick Hall: A demand-led on-street chargepoint scheme will be essential to the electric vehicle re

Thu, 4 Feb 2021 17:15:58 +0000

On the downside, they didn't have refuse collection or clean piped water.

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : Patrick Hall: A demand-led on-street chargepoint scheme will be essential to the electric vehicle re

Thu, 4 Feb 2021 17:13:21 +0000

Re your first sentence: perhaps we could call it Project Fear?

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : John Bald: Teachers must be free to explain grammar in terms that children can understand

Thu, 4 Feb 2021 14:58:51 +0000

The same thing might be said of Sanskrit?

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : John Bald: Teachers must be free to explain grammar in terms that children can understand

Thu, 4 Feb 2021 14:57:25 +0000

Was there not in the past a time when teaching of English grammar that you consider children need was new?

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : George Freeman: The industrial strategy reforms I led helped to deliver Britain's vaccine success. N

Thu, 4 Feb 2021 00:46:01 +0000

By "edit" do you mean fold into a paper airplane and throw at the nearest wastepaper bin?

http://www.conservativehome.com/ : George Freeman: The industrial strategy reforms I led helped to deliver Britain's vaccine success. N

Thu, 4 Feb 2021 00:42:52 +0000

I for one don't remember that, because what Al Gore actualky claimed was rather more nuanced than you imply. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/internet-of-lie...