gdp's Comments

Caracas Chronicles : The three-legged stool

Mon, 7 Dec 2009 15:38:26 +0000

I'll be right back for a serious comment. In the mean time, enjoy 3 Legs, by Paul McCartney... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmGblSMH8Ug

Caracas Chronicles : Rules for Subversives

Fri, 4 Dec 2009 19:38:32 +0000

"Falling prey to Chavez is exactly what we have been doing by not resisting and going along with his game of democracy." I think the first thing I will stop right away is using the 'we' and start focusing on the opposition leadership this far. The opposition shouted 'fraud!' in August 2004 when, whether we like it or not, Chavez had won the referendum. It then boycotted the 2005 legislative elections and shut itself out of the main venue to oppose Chavez's policies. It then took AGES to elect a viable opposition candidate and refused to develop a coherent, well organized common movement. The opposition' victories' that came later were the result of the student movement (the anti-RCTV closure crowd), ISOLATED efforts by local caudillos (Rosales here, Salas there); and the government's own stupidity (e.g. the 2007 constitutional referendum). A truly repressive atmosphere only developed in the post-2007 years. Two years. What has the opposition leadership done in these years? Have they called for a high moral stance? Are they organizing a common programmatic platform to get us out of the mess later on? Not much, no, and no are the answers. You can't blame Chavez for everything bad that has happened to the oppo leadership. I hate to say it: Chavez is an authoritarian jackass.... but most oppo leaders have done everything they needed to do to be in the sorry position they are today. And I am not throwing really worthy leaders - like Carlos Ocariz - on the pot. He is one of the faces of a different opposition leadership that will eventually emerge from all this.

Caracas Chronicles : Rules for Subversives

Fri, 4 Dec 2009 16:54:11 +0000

Gee, I beg to differ. Conceiving our efforts as subversion means falling prey, once again, to Chavez's play. We do not need to subvert the government. We just need to get our act together and organize ourselves, for the first time, bottom up and work for years to create a really serious alternative. In spite of all the control Chavez has of the system, he has won several elections not on the basis of fraud, but on the basis of enjoying the support of Venezuela's democratic majority. Our main goal is simple: We should become the majority. As simple (and painful) as that. And even if the government doesn't see itself leaving power, most people in Venezuela still believe in democracy, elections are fairly transparent and we still have plenty of means to articulate our views. The day the government loses a majority due to its decreasing ability to please Venezuelans' needs (oil price drops, general dissatisfaction, fatigue, etc.); and we had developed a centrist platform, with fresh faces and a well organized proposal, the NEW political opposition will take power. We don't need to define our struggle as subversion to do this.

Caracas Chronicles : Intervention!

Thu, 3 Dec 2009 20:32:00 +0000

Lucia is right that Chavez is losing support, and that it doesn't seem right to be worried or to give up. However, I think what has changed changing is our perception of the problem. In the past, the opposition's expectations were that, at some point, we would get rid of Chavez and return to 'democratic' rule. However, I think that vision is gone for good. Chavismo became the status quo. Though some people still wait for Cuban hell to be fully unleashed, a lot of people no longer subscribe to this doom prophecy. People are no longer acting in anticipation of what is bound to come, but accepting what we have right now as a given. And what we have is not Cuba, but it has its fair share of seemingly insurmountable problems (especially the crime rate). I think the most useful thing to do, for all of us, is to help improve things from whatever our position is. We need to get engaged and think less about how Chavez is making everybody miserable. Let's stop pitying ourselves.

Caracas Chronicles : Picking up on new memes

Wed, 2 Dec 2009 22:59:07 +0000

"He's moved against ONE kleptocrat, probably at the behest of other competing kleptocrats." Quico got it right. This is an intra Chavista-coalition conflict; and it shouldn't surprise anybody, because the elite groups within Chavismo are still in flux and aggressively competing for ever scarcer resources. However, as usual, with this things you can kill dos pajaros de un tiro. You can seize the opportunity and claim that an increased state role in banking is necessary, and move against other banks (including both good and zombie banks, and including some that are in opposition hands). Yet, I don't see this coming nationalization as one mainly motivated by ideological reasons. Clientelism redux.

Caracas Chronicles : Q-atharsis

Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:41:42 +0000

RevBob, I am not trying to persuade anybody of Chávez's democratic credentials or that Venezuela is the perfect polyarchy., because it isn't, and I think that's well established. But I think we have reached a point in which it is critical to look with complete honesty at what we have now, and what we had in the past. The 'whole clientelism thing' is not only an exchange of votes for a bottle of Cacique Rum: It is a logic that plagues practically all social relations of political import in Venezuela. It goes to the root of how we make policy decisions and allocate resources. It serves as a partial explanation to phenomena as seemingly unrelated as the Lista Tascón; the governments takeovers of private property and the use of labor to shut down manufacturing, much better than the common explanation that we are becoming 'a second Cuba.' Now, the massive shutdown of media by decree, the Court packing, the submission of the judiciary, the open politicization of the Attorney General´s office --> Yes, I am there with you. Those are real differences, sometimes of form, sometimes of substance. And much worse than the past. Yet, this doesn't mean that in the past we had a free media, an independent judiciary or a functional and apolitical office of the Attorney General. We NEVER had any of those things.

Caracas Chronicles : Q-atharsis

Sat, 28 Nov 2009 02:42:06 +0000

I am currently going through a different stage: I am growingly convinced that the current political dynamics are not terribly different from the past, with the main difference been the still personalistic character of the current regime due to Chavez's overwhelming presence in the political arena in every sense. But, in the mean time, the PSUV is gradually consolidating as a dominant clientelist party, with a moderate and an extremist faction; while the opposition is still fragmented and internally resisting the formation of a real political movement that make its leaders accountable. Although the regime has indeed narrowed the avenues to challenge it, the opposition leadership has also been quick to do everything necessary to perpetuate their own presence and discourage the emergence of new leaders with ties to the still-large mass of opposition voters. Honestly, yes, this is a hybrid regime, but it is not an oppressive dictatorship. Despite Chavez's disgusting rants and overwhelming dominance, it is more similar to the AD-COPEI regime in many ways than to any truly dictatorial regime you can think of.

Caracas Chronicles : Fernandez Barrueco Busted...but why?

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 19:25:14 +0000

Do we have a Russian Politics specialist around? This is so similar to what I understand has happened in Russia under Putin...

Caracas Chronicles : Chávez shoots at an open goal, scores

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 03:58:12 +0000

That's true. Chavez's overwhelming presence and perpetual reelection is a key difference...

Caracas Chronicles : Chávez shoots at an open goal, scores

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 03:06:06 +0000

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that Venezuela is not on the way to become Cuba, but México under the PRI...

Caracas Chronicles : The view from your window: Parque Central

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:35:13 +0000

Padre Chulique rules and this is truly cool. The Mosque is the second biggest in the region, according to a reliable source: Wikipedia ;) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosque_of_Sheikh_Ibr... I am all for celebrating the Chinita Day everywhere. With the Zulian diaspora spreading around the world, I am pretty sure this day will be celebrating in really unlikely places.

Caracas Chronicles : The view from your window: Chicago

Mon, 9 Nov 2009 19:46:34 +0000

One of the most underrated great cities on Earth, without a doubt...

Caracas Chronicles : The view from your window: Asunción

Sun, 8 Nov 2009 00:59:21 +0000

I have friends in Asuncion that I have never met in person. Would love to go there!

Caracas Chronicles : Game Over

Sun, 8 Nov 2009 00:58:03 +0000

I agree with you guys. Treat them like movies. Don't penalize people with draconian penalties/punishments that anyway won't be complied with and will therefore increase the criminal system's discretion.

Caracas Chronicles : Owning up to one\'s bad calls

Sat, 7 Nov 2009 16:39:58 +0000

Jim DeMint? An ultraconservative Senator from an ultraconservative state. Those words don't change U.S. policy a little bit (and they wouldn't have been terribly influential in the Bush era either)

Caracas Chronicles : Game Over

Fri, 6 Nov 2009 16:11:58 +0000

geha714 is right. This will just create more incentives for black market goods. Go to your buhonero of choice for the toy. In any case, I am all in favor of placing controls on aggressive and violent video games. This oppressive law is way too draconian, but establishing some control over what games are sold, and to whom, is not a bad idea per se.

Caracas Chronicles : Reproduced Verbatim

Thu, 5 Nov 2009 23:05:25 +0000

Dear Lord....

Caracas Chronicles : Reproduced Verbatim

Tue, 3 Nov 2009 21:59:21 +0000

But only some Chavistas. I guess most Chavistas consider North Korea either a joke or an oppressive autocracy. Yet you still have a bunch of kool-aid drinkers there who might think North Korea is great because it challenges Imperialism and blah. If they like Pyongyang so much, move there!!!!!

Caracas Chronicles : What\'s happening in Táchira?

Tue, 3 Nov 2009 21:57:16 +0000

I wish I could agree with you, Lucia. But bigotry doesn't respect nationalities or races. Many nations that are far from being 'sinister' fall in the traps of bigotry and chauvinism more often than not. Although Venezuelans might not support the current tensions, they are up to the top with the current crime rate... and fail to blame Chávez for it. If the opposition does not make a good job in finding culprits, the government will....

Caracas Chronicles : What\'s happening in Táchira?

Tue, 3 Nov 2009 18:11:13 +0000

This is only going to get worse: http://www.eluniversal.com/2009/11/03/pol_ava_gob... During the last year, the relationship between Colombia and Venezuela has seriously deteriorated to unprecedented levels. I think we will see the government increasingly blaming Colombians for rising crime, and I bet this will work. This isn't new, but no government has explicit and systematically used bigotry to fuel an animosity between the two countries. Sadly, I would bet a large % of the population will agree and buy the argument that crime is all (or mostly) about unruly Colombians. This would be wonderful for Chavez in so many machiavellic ways... On the other side of the border, this could play to Uribe's hands as well, by improving his chances to obtain a third term.