Tom
53p135 comments posted · 2 followers · following 0
15 years ago @ DemConWatch - LA-4: No concession, a... · 0 replies · +2 points
15 years ago @ DemConWatch - Dem Kilroy wins in OH-15 · 0 replies · +2 points
1. Most absentees have been counted (check LA SoS) and they favor GOP. On the other hand last time LA-4 voted for Congress GOP won 57.40% of the vote and (only) 58.19% of the absentees. So we must expect absentee tie again therefore the rest (last minute absentees) will probably favor Dems.
2. LA-4 has a tradition of not so many provisionals - but they favor Dems 3:1 if not more. Most counties have 0 or 1 provisional ballot. A dozen or so for Bossier and 150-200-250 for Caddo.
3. CADDO - the bastion of Carmouche. 95% of the provisional ballots were cast here. Dems are winning those probably 4:1. I expect 200 provisionals and net gain of 120 for Carmouche. Not enough but a good start! The other thing - many absentees to be counted in Caddo - and those should go big for Carmouche - he is underperforming in absentees there, so we can expect as many as 70% of the late last-minute absentee votes to go his way.
The election is real toss-up! And is definetely going to recount!
15 years ago @ DemConWatch - Franken Campaign Claim... · 0 replies · +1 points
15 years ago @ DemConWatch - Terrorist Attack in Mu... · 1 reply · +2 points
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