gdp's Comments

asymco : Two turkeys don't make an eagle, but no penguin will ever soar.

Sat, 12 Feb 2011 06:14:38 +0000

They were both forced into this deal. They really had no other choice. It's do-or-die desperation time for these behemoths. Combining two dinosaurs won't produce a mammal. This deal will obviously help Apple more as it really focuses more on stemming the Android tide from Samsung, LG, SE, HTC and Motorola than the iOS devices. Sure they want Apple's action as well but their main worry is Android. This deal buys Apple some time to come up with a more comprehensive market share strategy in the midrange to low-end segments of the mobile market. Man, you just couldn't script things better for Apple. It's really amazing to observe how Apple is playing the competition like a drum.

asymco : I'll let you in on a secret: insider info is bogus

Thu, 25 Nov 2010 01:05:58 +0000

I wanted to add another point regarding the "channel checks" that analysts brandy about in their reports. Having worked as a supply chain director for finished OEM goods in a fairly large musical instruments company for 10+ years, I have a good understanding of how long supply chains from Asia to the US work. The industry I'm in is small, almost minuscule, compared to the tech/CE industry. Even in my position of going to the manufacturing base in China and Korea every 2~3 months over all these years, it's very difficult to get accurate info on what the various factories are doing in terms of how many and who they're building for. So to think these analysts sitting in their offices here across the Pacific can "sic" some low-to-mid level contacts to get accurate info on what's really going on in this humungous industry is laughable at best and rather disturbing when you think about the influence that such "info" can have on the stock price of the world's second largest company by market cap. I wouldn't be surprised if some of these numbers are just pulled out of the blue - outright made up not by the analysts, but by their so-called sources in these "channels" they seem proud to be privy to. We see time and time again how far off these analysts tend to be. It's really funny to see how some of them keep going and going after making predictions that turn them into laughing stocks on the Internet. I suppose having a really thick skin is one of the prerequisites of holding onto their jobs. It's often as though they're just shooting wildly in the dark to make some outrageous prediction that will hit the bullseye eventually and cement their reputation in this weird business they're in. I'm sure this is not the case for the majority of the analysts who are well qualified to do what they're doing. But this is a competitive field as well and some of them seem rather desperate for attention - posting sensationalistic headlines over and over again to stand out from the rest by proving that they can see things that others can't. Yes, the Internet is full of Jobs-like visionaries who will change the world and give us everlasting peace... Fortunately, there are enough down-to-earth and level-headed analysts around who are worthwhile for us to track down and follow through all the other riff-raff.

asymco : I'll let you in on a secret: insider info is bogus

Thu, 25 Nov 2010 00:06:02 +0000

I find the whole AAPL stock price speculation and analysis that's flooding the web the least interesting of following what Apple is doing. There's just a total overload of regurgitated rumors and speculations that it's becoming quite a chore to filter out the useful info from utter gibberish. That's on top of having to weed through overly-biased analysts' reports (both pro-Apple and anti-Apple) that are poorly researched and hastily written with typos and bad grammar. And then there are all the forum comments that are reminiscent of juvenile sports fans arguing over how their favorite teams and players are doing. Sad to say, Apple has a become part of a growing tabloid culture dressed up as "serious" financial and tech journalism. It's obvious that there are traders (as opposed to long-term investors) who are looking to cash in on short-term dips and peaks that AAPL is subject to. It seems these people are just guessing for the most part, looking for quick gains and sell-offs or short sales based on unsubstantiated rumors. I can easily envision various schemes being hacked together by the traders and some of these psudo-analysts to get these rumors going on the web and manipulate short-term volatility. I'm all for the SEC cracking down on this kind of...uh... crap.

asymco : Why the Mac keeps growing

Wed, 24 Nov 2010 01:44:09 +0000

@ dchu220 Branding, from a marketing perspective, is an art form in itself and requires astute strategic thinking and development. It's part of my gig marketing high-end musical instruments ($2000 and up) and related equipment and it's something I think about a lot. There's a lot of thought going into branding Apple in Cupertino and it's as interesting to me to observe as the technology developments and the supply chain management aspects of what Apple does. Another point that I want to bring up about why the Mac continues to grow, despite the general perception of it being expensive, is that technology is relatively cheap and keeps getting cheaper all the time. Compared to putting in a wooden storage cabinet in the garage, getting a decent sofa for the living room or even putting kids through a football season, a computer is virtually a bargain depending on how well it's used. And the Mac is something that can be put to very good use (both in quality and quantity of time) by all the members in a family - even kids below the age of 10. A Mac (say, like the 21.5" iMac I recently got for the family), for all its perceived expensiveness, isn't exactly a classic "luxury" item like a BMW sedan or a Chanel handbag, etc. It's still a tool or an appliance for media consumption, communications and to get some work done efficiently. The value is in the quality of the user experience which makes us enjoy using the Mac (and iOS devices) which in turn makes us get things done without frustrations or wasting time. I believe Apple has made spec comparisons a moot point to the majority of the consumers. When I got the new family iMac several months ago, I really didn't care about the processor, the amount of RAM, the graphics processor, the number of ports, etc. I just knew the base 21.5" model at around $1100 would be more than we'd ever need. Sure I lust after the 27" model with maxed-out RAM with mega storage for myself but I know that I won't use even 25% of its capacity before wanting to upgrade in 3~5 years. The new family iMac with the Apple TV 2G has completely become the focal point of the home entertainment center. We got rid of the cable set-top box and the DVD player as well. But then, we're just not much of a TV or video game family at all, so I guess it depends on the family. But when the PC-owning family friends and relatives come over and see the sleek and super clean system, they are immediately intrigued and become envious. Trust me; I'm not a geek at all. But when they see how I wirelessly stream and play all our music, movies and photo slide shows from the iMac to the ATV and the home theater system with such a bare-bones minimalist setup, they are amazed. When I tell them I spent around $1200 for the whole thing and literally spent only 10 minutes to set it all up, they are amazed yet again. Technology should just be a means to an end. I'm convinced that Steve Jobs and Apple understand that as far as the customers are concerned. It's about the end result, whether that's getting the content we want or getting things done as quickly and painlessly as possible so we can enjoy other things in life and not deal with complexities and clutter. Seems that's how Apple runs their business as well.

asymco : Why the Mac keeps growing

Tue, 23 Nov 2010 19:42:10 +0000

This Fortune Apple 2.0 article based on IDC's Q3 report highlights the Mac growth well: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/23/mac-shipme...

asymco : Why the Mac keeps growing

Tue, 23 Nov 2010 03:52:59 +0000

I posted the following on some other Apple-related sites that discussed the vast growth potential in the Far East and I'll post it again here for those who may be interested. The Far East Asians are really into the glamorous Western brands and Apple exemplifies that image more than any other tech/CE company in the world. There really is no other company that is even close to matching Apple's buzz and pizazz in this area. Someone like Ballmer will say that Apple has a "$500 logo", but the reality of the situation in the burgeoning Asian markets is that the brand matters a lot. Why, you may ask. Why more so there than here in the States or over in Europe? Of course, we certainly have our share of people here in the West who like to flaunt their riches but it's not such a mainstream thing as it is in the urban population centers of Korea, China and other nations in east Asia. The Japanese people, though, do not seem quite as desirous of Western luxury brands as the people in Korea and China tend to be. It's an interesting thing to observe from a cultural perspective. I know that this is a bit of generalization, but I think the Japanese society has always cultivated a culture of frugality, modesty, and savings over spending, consumption and blatant displays of wealth for many centuries and perhaps that's why the aspirational brands aren't quite as highly regarded there. As for Korea and China, I think the societies there allow a little more individuality while being very hierarchical at the same time. And that hierarchical structure has a lot to do with the upper class wanting to display their social status through the products they own - the cars they drive, the clothes they wear, the handbags that women carry, and the phones they use. Also, the population density in these countries is much higher than the vast swaths of the US and even Europe. Whether it's the crowded subway trains or packed downtown streets, there'll be many more people looking at what you wear and the phone you carry. People who are affluent or have a little more income than the majority want to show that they are in that upper range of the social and financial hierarchy. I suppose when one is just another face in a sea of millions in a very compact area, the desire to set oneself apart from the rest in a "respectable" manner becomes an overriding need. Countries like Korea and China are still very conformist societies. Setting yourself apart by sporting a mohawk or piercing your nose isn't really a good way to get noticed and earn the respect or envy over there. Having spent much time in both the East and the West, I've always wondered why Far East Asians seem more prone to irrational brand lust than their counterparts here in the West. I've come to the conclusion that the society itself simply - albeit unintentionally - encourages this kind of behavior. And now that Korea is an economic powerhouse and China is starting to taste what the good life is all about after decades (even centuries) of miserable poverty and putting in 70-hour workweeks, the flood gates have opened to unbridled consumerism. Well, all this works extremely well to Apple's advantage in the years ahead. Apple's focus on China is self-evident. We've already read about the pandemonium when the iPhone 4 was introduced and about the scalpers who will easily sell the phones at ridiculously inflated prices. I mean, you don't hear of such things happening in the States or in Europe. How many people here would buy phones off of scalpers no matter what kind of an Apple nut they are? And the affluent and the relatively well-educated over there also know very well about the rampant counterfeiting and fraudulent business practices that still infest their societies. In fact, this makes the real deal even more desirable and aspirational. You can be assured that Apple has a big top-notch legal team in place in China to go after the counterfeiters, trademark violators, fraudsters, scalpers, etc. This is well beyond China just being a big market of nearly 1.4 billion people. It's about the economic growth trajectory as well as the psychology of the growing middle class. The implication of these factors cannot be underestimated and it's clear that Apple is definitely not underestimating the potential of what they can accomplish there over the next decade. Now this is well beyond hardware-software integration, the ecosystem and the technical specs. It's about the power of the brand holding sway over many hundreds of millions of consumers with growing purchasing power. To this day after all my years traveling there, I still find China mind-boggling. To put China's population in perspective, it's roughly equal to *two* United States and *all* of Europe combined.

asymco : Why the Mac keeps growing

Mon, 22 Nov 2010 20:02:07 +0000

Now it's up to 60,000 pre-orders for the iPad in Korea. http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/tech/2010/11... Korea will be a very important market, especially considering that it's the home base of Samsung and LG. I'll expound on the "Apple Fever in Asia" theme later. As a Korean-American who grew up in both Korea and the US (my father was a diplomat and went back and forth a lot during my youth) and who has continued to split time between the East and the West, I think I can offer some insights about the Far East that you'd find interesting. I'm also just as fluent in Korean as I'm in English.

asymco : The integrated iPad news daily: Read all about it!

Mon, 22 Nov 2010 19:11:20 +0000

Samsung sold their tab into their massive distribution channels but it seems that the sell-through at retail hasn't been good at all and that Samsung is cutting back production, which isn't surprising. Retail sell-through is what's important.

asymco : The integrated iPad news daily: Read all about it!

Mon, 22 Nov 2010 17:48:16 +0000

When there is money to be made, even the most diametrically opposed in the ideological realm will get together and form an alliance. We all know that opposites attract (although this one does seem like the most strange of bedfellows) and the potential for good to come out for both sides is big. Does anyone think that Apple will dismiss or ignore the "right-wing" market base because people in that base think differently from Jobs or most folks at Apple? Their money is as green as that of the most liberal technocrats in Silicon Valley or the high-browed academicians in Boston. Apple's insistence on a squeaky clean image for its App Store and corporate governance in general is a good example of Apple courting the business of the conservative base with a zeal. This is a business. Corporations go to where the money is. Jobs and Murdoch may view each other as "loons" privately, but they can't deny the success of each other either and probably do share a great deal of mutual respect and admiration in their respective fields. Unlike our government with its endless partisan bickering, effective businesses hurdle together and get things done. I've been reading comments from some on other Apple-related boards that they will not buy another Apple product ever again if Jobs and Murdoch partner up on this. Really? What makes these people think that the likes of Dell, HP, and foreign PC vendors like Acer, Lenovo, Toshiba and Sony won't jump at an opportunity like this to hook up with Murdoch? Let's say you were running a high-end gourmet restaurant in NY. Let's say Murdoch walks in for dinner with some other high-brow associates of his that will gross well over $2000 for you on one bill. He and his buddies like what you do and could become good repeat customers while spreading the word to more of their affluent friends. Are you going to tell him to take a hike at the door because you believe he's a right-wing maniac?

asymco : The integrated iPad news daily: Read all about it!

Mon, 22 Nov 2010 07:28:46 +0000

Very interesting. The iPad does indeed have the potential to revolutionize the publishing market - newspapers, magazines and books. It is especially intriguing to ponder the effect it can have on the print newspaper industry. For sure, it's probably an industry that has been suffering as badly as the music industry over the past decade. I myself can't remember the last time time I bought a daily newspaper but I still have fond memories of reading the NY Times everyday (especially the mega Sunday edition) when I grew up there as a kid in the 70's. The iPad just may bring that intimate immediacy of holding the newspaper in your hands and flipping through the pages - something that's lacking in browsing different news sites or a portal like Yahoo! or MSN, etc. on a computer. I also believe this is where the 9.7" screen size form factor (or perhaps even a little larger in the future) would really give the iPad a distinctive advantage over its 7" size rivals. I'm all for this development. Apple indeed has the tiger by the tail here.

asymco : Stats update: Asymco reaches one million pageviews

Sun, 21 Nov 2010 23:22:21 +0000

The best Apple analysis site IMHO and I've been searching far and deep all over the web. I still quickly browse various Apple-related sites, general tech-related news sites and financial/stock-related sites, but I spend more time here than anywhere else. It's not only because of Horace's insightful and thought-provoking articles but due to the wealth of excellent contributions by very knowledgeable posters here.

asymco : Why the Mac keeps growing

Sun, 21 Nov 2010 23:13:29 +0000

I think it's very realistic to project Apple doubling Mac market share in the US to 20%+ and 10%+ globally over the next 3~5 years. As mentioned earlier, Far East Asia provides the greatest potential for big gains as the iPhone and iPad become the most desirable "status symbol" gadgets in China, Korea and Taiwan. If the US market share for Macs is around 10~11% and 5~8% in western Europe and Japan, it's certainly less than 2% in the rest of the Far East. I've been traveling mainly to Korea and China since the early-90's for the line of work I do (both for supply chain management of lower priced musical instruments and equipment and for marketing and selling of high-end musical products to those markets) and it has always been very rare to see the Apple logo anywhere. In the 90's, I remember people there looking at my Mac PowerBooks and asking me why I'm sticking with a dying brand computer that doesn't connect with 97% of the world's computers. I got that look of disdain and dismissal from the typically conservative and conformist crowd over there. Now it's completely different. People look at my MacBook Pro with envy and are genuinely interested in the whole Apple platform and ecosystem. On my most recent trips to Hong Kong, China and Korea, I saw a lot of iPhones and iPads at the airports there and even amongst executives at the factories I visited. Macs are still hard to see but it was easy to sense the interest in getting a MBP or an iMac, especially amongst the iPhone owners. During the typical dinner business meetings and the drinking outings afterwards, I end up talking more about Apple stuff with them than our musical instruments business. Many friends, relatives and business associates that I have in Korea have told me that they've got an iPhone 4 on order and that they're seriously considering going "completely Apple" in the near-future. Even an ex-Samsung Electronics employee who now owns and runs a high-end musical instruments importing, distribution and retail business told me that he'll be getting an iPhone and an iMac and I thought that was funny. So much for "patriotic" brand loyalty! Considering nearly 2 million iPhones have been sold in Korea since its introduction last year and that KT Corp. has already taken over 40,000 pre-orders for the iPad that will be introduced there on Nov 30, it's obvious that "Apple Fever" is sweeping the Far East. The status symbol desirability for all things Apple will continue to grow in the most dynamic economic region in the world - the Far East and especially China. It is the epicenter of consumer electronics - both from manufacturing standpoint and as a developing market to sell into. China and Japan are now the world's second and third largest economies, respectively. South Korea is not far off from breaking into the top 10. Taiwan remains a serious player - at least from the manufacturing perspective and from the influence it has on China's development. This aspect of Apple's growth potential is still under-appreciated by people here in the US and Europe. But then, Apple still has much room for growth in the West as well. For the foreseeable future, one of Apple's biggest "problems" will be in being able to keep up with demand worldwide. Build the goods and they will come...

asymco : Why the Mac keeps growing

Sat, 20 Nov 2010 08:40:54 +0000

Horace, you know your site is doing well and generating the traffic when it attracts the Apple-hatin' trolls that we are starting to see here. Clearly, Aysmco is now drawing a good amount of attention.

asymco : Why the Mac keeps growing

Sat, 20 Nov 2010 02:58:40 +0000

"Also, Apple most certainly isn't capturing the "a vast portion" of PC profits." Apple competes directly with the likes of HP, Dell, Acer, Lenovo, Toshiba, Sony, and other generic PC makers, not Microsoft. The article was referring to the profits of the vendors of complete hardware systems, which is also what Apple provides with the Mac. The Deutsche Bank recently did a study of the global PC (systems) market's profit share and estimated that Apple is raking in 35% of the profits although having less than 5% market share in units shipped.

asymco : Why the Mac keeps growing

Sat, 20 Nov 2010 02:30:41 +0000

Still plenty to be bullish about when it comes to Apple's future prospects in this concise to-the-point article at Seeking Alpha: http://seekingalpha.com/article/237788-bullish-on...

asymco : Why the Mac keeps growing

Fri, 19 Nov 2010 18:38:39 +0000

All of the comments make good points about why the Mac continues to grow and what its advantages are. I think the turning point more than a decade ago was the introduction of the original fruit-colored iMac before the transition to the Mac OS X. It was the beginning of the whole "i" concept and the Internet for the masses - the grandparents and housewives who just wanted to surf the net and use email. Compatibility with the much greater Windows world was not an issue. There was a significant segment of the population who only wanted access to the web as painlessly as possible and the answer was the cute iMac. In a sense, the Internet (the "i") saved Apple or it was the wide open wilderness that Apple could run to where Microsoft didn't matter. The "i" redefined Apple as a consumer technology company and allowed Apple to escape its niche status of a maker of expensive computers for the creative industries. Once the iMac became established as a consumer-friendly Internet access terminal, then it was onto iPod and iTunes and the buildout of the digital hub and media ecosystem. Continued refinement of the OS X and the remarkable success of the iPhone and the iPad has certainly had a "halo effect" on the growth of the Mac. And now we see the blurring of the line between the OS X and iOS as the entire Apple product line becomes unified with a common goal and theme: accessing and communicating through the carefully curated Apple ecosystem. Growth potential for the Mac is staggering when you consider all the iPhone owners (present and future) who do not currently own a Mac, especially in international markets and Far East Asia in particular where Mac usage is virtually non-existent. All these iPhone owners who look at it as a status symbol will now seriously consider a Mac to show off in their homes when it's time to upgrade the PC. The halo will continue to expand and do so at a far faster rate than the growth of the PC market.

asymco : Nokia's Ovi Store downloads hit 3 million a day

Fri, 19 Nov 2010 02:53:06 +0000

Meanwhile, there are calls for Nokia to forget the development of MeeGo, drop Symbian and adopt Android, like by this analyst at Motley Fool. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/11/18/... It's a tough one. It's like asking which one will hurt less. I'd say Nokia will stick to its plans. Or perhaps Microsoft is trying to convince its former executive to take on WP7... This predicament isn't much different from that faced by the next two largest cellphone makers Samsung and LG, but at least Nokia can claim to have their own platform and ecosystem. It seems that these three largest handset makers all share one big albatross around their necks: the huge volume of feature phones that they must continue to crank out while gradually shifting to the smartphone that will soon make the former obsolete. Obviously, Apple, RIM and HP/Palm won't have to deal with such a wrenching transition. I think it's one reason HP/Palm believes that they can still be a factor this late in the game. The smartphone market is young and the biggest combined handset players still have the major distraction of phasing out the dumb phones. I sense a cool confidence in HP/Palm. They're pretty sure they can still make an impact and, as Horace mentioned, we definitely can't count them out.

asymco : Dell's devices head resigns

Thu, 18 Nov 2010 23:24:51 +0000

Dell has become synonymous with the brand you see in massive government agencies, the accounting department in financial corporations, and on the front desks of big hotels. But even Dell's long-time grip on such unglamorous locations for their wares is being threatened by Acer and Lenovo. Dell's market cap is less than one-tenths of that of Apple's. Now Michael Dell has to be constantly reminded of that famous comment he made over a decade ago about how if he was running Apple he'd sell the company and return the money to the shareholders. Talk about eating crow... Seriously, it's what Jobs would do if he was given helm of Dell. What a miserable position Dell is mired in... They'll keep trudging along in the PC/server business but I just don't see them even getting their foot in the door of the mobile market.

asymco : Warner Music waits for Godot

Thu, 18 Nov 2010 17:48:40 +0000

Perhaps I'm part of the old dwindling school that sat down and just focused on the music and nothing else. Whether it's the type of music I listen to or concerts I attend, the visual aspects mean nothing unless the music itself can stand on its own. My commentary is that music is no longer the center in popular culture as it was in the 60's and the 70's when we eagerly looked forward to a new album by our favorite artists. But I understand that times change and people need to adapt - including the musicians. I deal with a lot of world class musicians in the fusion, progressive, jazz type of fields (mostly instrumental and improvisational) so perhaps I'm looking at things from a very minority point of view. Such advanced and esoteric music has a very small audience and that audience is getting smaller by the year. It takes too much work to just understand what they're doing. Why is the music industry shrinking so drastically in terms of dollars spent? The number of people getting into it is certainly increasing proportionally to population growth but the money isn't there. I live in LA (still the world's capital of recorded music and the entertainment business) and it's really difficult to find any sort of good live music anywhere. It's virtually non-existent. The music industry competes with other "recreational" industries - sports, video games, movies, and even the PC and smartphone industries - because they offer activities that take up the consumers' time. They are all competing for the eyeballs and minds of these people. Kids today don't want to put in the time to practicing the piano, a violin or a guitar. Learning to play music in the early stages is a very tedious and frustrating experience. Kids today do not have the self-discipline and the patience to learn an instrument properly when they could just turn on the X-Box and get instant thrills. The people in our industry lament about this all the time. And it's a very small industry. For instance, the global market for electric guitars is about 3 million units annually and that includes the $99 guitars that one may see in Costco and other mass merchandisers. Heck, Nokia sells that many phones in less than 3 days. I've been in this industry for 20+ years and it's just not growing in proportion to the rest of the world's growth - both in population and economic growth. That being said, there really is more good music out there than there has ever been, but most of it never gets heard. Any guy can record a CD in his bedroom now and *try* to sell it through the Internet but who'll buy music online of someone who they've never heard of. There are literally hundreds of thousands of artists trying to get heard. How does one filter all this stuff to find a few gems? I know musicians who hit it big with certain bands in the 80's and they had mansions and drove Ferraris. Now they live with their parents or in a small apartment teaching to just get by. World-renowned fusion virtuosos have to crash at a friend's home's sofa for months at a time because they just don't have the money. It's a very common thing. Oh, I know some quite successful (financially) musicians and producers as well, but they're quite rare and often not a reflection of true musical talent. In sports, one either performs and wins or doesn't. In music, the most talented have no guarantees that they'll be able to pay the rent doing what they do best.

asymco : Warner Music waits for Godot

Thu, 18 Nov 2010 03:34:04 +0000

Reflecting more on the sad state of the music industry, an old one-hit wonder popped up in my mind: 'Video Killed The Radio Star' by the Buggles three decades ago. Although that song lamented the dawning of the MTV age, it was quite prophetic in how video would thoroughly trample the recorded music medium. In the big scheme of things, music simply became a "soundtrack" that was no longer able to stand on its own. Soon we had the likes of Michael Jackson, Prince and Madonna dominate the music scene with their visual agenda that effectively overwhelmed the music in the pop culture consciousness. Real musicianship got relegated to the position of supporting what's most important: the visual spectacle. Just look at the home audio industry with the surround home theater systems that really aren't ideal for taking in Bach or Simon & Garfunkel songs. Music is now just a soundtrack for films, videos and even our own lives - from working out at the gym, driving down the freeway or in the kitchen as we munch on a snack. As Metallica sang on one of their better tunes from '91, 'Sad But True'...