Except that AK only has one district, so that would mean Kerry won the state in '04.

Night before the election, and fivethirtyeight predicts the most likely outcome as 311 EVs (8+%), that being Obama (CO, MN, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, VA), 2nd most likely 338 (above - 5+%), and 3rd most likely 378 (~5%), which means Obama (CO, FL, IN, MN, MO, NC, ND, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, VA).

I'm just rambling, but does anyone know why the methodology over there would be like that, where the most likely scenario plus Florida is the second-most likely, but that the third-most likely is that plus Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina AND North Dakota? Is there a Bradley hedge in there? And does anyone want to do some last-minute wagering before tomorrow's exit polls show up? I need to make a little extra money before Barack lowers my taxes!

338 Total Electoral Votes
Obama (CO, FL, MN, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, VA), McCain (GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, ND, WV)
Obama 53.2%, McCain 45.3%