Good point. I think the point of FIP is to remove fielding, but there is also a wish to remove the effects of luck inherent in the stat. The use of xFIP is to continue the effect of removing luck and obviously not fielding.

So far 160 seems to be the very upper limit for him from any projection I have seen. Alexi Ogando topped 180 when you include the playoffs, C.J. Wilson topped 228 in 2010 though when playoffs are included. (Won't hear Verducci mention him after topping 200 again in 2011)

I think the Red Sox will be cautious with Bard, but topping 160 is a real possibility for a team looking for two starters instead of just one and obviously looking at a playoff run can't hold him out to much.

Once I get a few more going we will be working on a glossary, which will include the basic definition as well as links to these pages. Also any time we reference one of these stats there will be a link to our description.

I agree with your idea for leaders, average and Sox leaders. I will use that on future stats, but FIP and xFIP are fairly easy to understand in this regard. It attempts to match ERA value so below 4.00 is better than average and around 3.00 is great. Anything under 3.00 is elite. Of course this shifted a bit in 2011 as offense was down a bit, but we'll see if that repeats in 2012.

Most of those things you mentioned are out of the pitchers control and so FIP attempts to remove them, but something like broken bats and weak contact are something we need to identify as a skill by looking at numbers like Line Drive rate and BABIP. If a pitcher repeats this skill we can trust that ERA maybe more precise than FIP.

CAIRO, Marcel and OLIVER all currently have Red Sox with 89-93 wins with CAIRO projecting a division win. All three have the team in the playoffs.

I am more likely to put my trust in a projection system than a national writer.

"picked Boston to make the post season"

That is much different than a clear 6th placed team, also national writers are not exactly who I want to listen to predict baseball outcomes.

Don't agree at all. Tampa is not in the group right now and the rest are all so close to say Boston is last is silly.

"the problem is at BEST the Red Sox are the 6th best AL team in terms of talent"

I stopped reading there. You want to argue there are six or seven teams that could contend based on talent I'll agree, but in no way are they 6th at best.

Why would the second wild card make things harder?

Vazquez might be reluctant, but can't see why the Sox wouldn't do it.

You still missed the point. Saunders cost the same amount and no prospects. Even if we say it's just Doubront or Bowden...that's more than Saunders cost and I repeat "they are exactly the same pitcher"