As far as I can tell, he's still free to mingle with strumpets, harlots and slatterns, so he should be fine.
Actually, we've seen the seven point spread show up a couple of times recently, including from Ipsos two weeks back. It's possible that the Liberals are lower, of course, which would broaden the gap. That may well change, of course, depending on how the next few weeks unfold.
That's the sense I get -- a seven-ish point spread.
Harris Decima usually polls for that long, so it's better to stick to comparing one HD poll to the other, rather than to EKOS or Ipsos, which has a three day sample if I recall correctly. That said, I don't think it's that bizarre -- it's just a different way of collecting data. Don't make me report you to Dakota for questioning the methodology, now.
I AM LEARNING TO ENJOY DOING MATH IN MY HEAD BEFORE BREAKFAST!!!
Actually, the Green numbers, particularly in BC, are intriguing -- they're closing in on the NDP in some regions, and are actually ahead in Ottawa, Calgary and Quebec, although the margin of error is vast, and the difference between the two small.
The movement between last week and this is within the MoE, yes -- that's why I noted that in my post, so there's no need to YELL AT ME TO MAKE YOUR POINT. But it's impossible to deny the trend over the last three or four polls, which is well outside the MoE, at least nationally, and in most cases, regionally as well.
Well, every polling firm has their own way of handling the undecideds, as far as presenting that data, so it's tricky to determine whether this is a blip, as far as the rising number, or indicative of a real trend. As far as I know, the conventional wisdom is that Undecides are more likely to be non-voters, and those that do end up deciding usually follow the same overall pattern of the voting population as a whole, which makes the number largely meaningless as far as projecting results from the given data.
This week's numbers leapt out at me because it was considerably higher than it has been for the last few months -- I'd have to go back and check, but it may be at its highest since EKOS started doing weeklies -- but again, it's not clear whether that has any wider implications. I do wish there was some sort of standard format for presenting polling data that all firms and media outlets would respect. In my dream, it would involve full province-by-province breakdowns, not just "the west" or "Atlantic Canada", smaller sample sizes be damned, as well as daily results and past voter preference, but let's face it, that's never going to happen.
Okay, that's the second reference I've seen to a day by day breakdown. Help a poor decimal-point-calculation-blinded girl out and point her to the page where that data appears?
ETA: Never mind, found it! It was in the
CBC tables, not the EKOS file.
The frustrating thing is that they don't break it down by province, which makes the findings somewhat meaningless, as far as any sort of seat projection. New Brunswick, for instance, tends to lean more towards the Conservatives than Newfoundland, so there's no way of knowing if this means the Tories are suddenly competitive in St. John's, or getting stronger in Saint John.
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Contraption