Seems like a promising idea, but not sure *what* we follow - anything with a hashtag? a general search term? something else. cheers

I think it is a fallacy that if a automaker fails, the demand for their vendors falls with them.

I'd argue this isn't true, because the collective volume that suppliers of new auto parts and services do will be based on the demand for new cars and the number manufactured. If GM & Ford fail, Toyota, Honda et. al. will sell more than they would have, and they will increase their parts orders to accommodate the increase in demand.

I'd assume right now that auto factories are not working at full capacity, so the factories who do not go out of business will be able to support an increased production rate.

Some effects that do seem valid:
- manufacturing equipment demand will decrease if there are fewer factories (though perhaps factories of bankrupt companies will be sold to other makers and put into production)
- foreign makers may buy more parts from foreign vendors, though the trend has been toward a very competitive global marketplace, which suggests this effect would not be great

That's the trouble when you start digging into something. I was amazed by the 9x multiplier, but now I think that multiplier must be less than 2x.

EP

I swam decades ago and found the current Olympic times astounding. Of course I had to counsel myself: the manner in which they are allowed to extend their glide underwater, and make their turns, and their swimming suits have greatly changed the sport. One cannot compare the world records of the 80s with the world records of today. For me, this takes much away from this sport which relies on the measurement of a simple metric (time) and the rules to define it.

With the market we are all supposed to collectively know what appropriate valuations are, though since it is a collective decision, it is never certain. Still we converge around certain heuristics and metrics and folk wisdom to arrive at our loose collective numbers. This does not necessarily handle significant changes in a single company very well.

Worse, we are at a collective loss when the bigger picture has materially changed or become compromised with great uncertainty. Stock valuation was a bit of a crap shoot when we were counting cards, but now we are not certain how many decks are being dealt out of nor whether there are any face cards in them at all.

cheers/

EP

Something is rotten in Denmark

Isn't the Economics degree in the US primarily a degree to get the student into Law School or an MBA program? Back in my school days, I recall very few serious Economics students within the undergraduates ranks of the major, with most undergrads not wanting to take the harder (rigorous, but more interesting) classes for fear of injuring their GPA.

No doubt may of those same students have felt freer to risk others' assets and wealth on static doctrine, rhetoric, and oversimplified logic. Why worry, since it has all been figured out, there could never be another Depression, etc.

We might get better Economists out of the Engineering or Mathematics departments, or perhaps out of the Creative Writing classes, or from a nation less ego-centric. God bless our hubris, our united hubris of America.