Good analysis, as usual, but posted late and, sadly, out of date for the story, since the buy-in is now ancient history. We need an update, stat, assessing the lay of the land now that the Rs are down to delaying tactics and the question has moved to abortion, ping-pong games, Cadillacs, and theoretical lurking moderates. The betting seems to be in favor of passage, according to 9 out of 10 talking heads.

If a massive, multi-trillion, individual stimulus package is necessary to "win" in 2010 and 2012 then the administration will do exactly that. Republicans can moan about the deficit till the cows come home but the Democrat constituency will readily vote for an administration and party that promises more bailouts well before they vote for Republicans who only promise more pain.
Eventually, you're just spending Monopoly money, to little or negative effect. What they've already got planned already has them in big trouble - both in terms of fiscal/monetary problemsand in terms of public opinion. They won't even try.